A snap shot of China’s future

Some times it is hard to conceive of the changes that are going to take place in the near future. And I am not talking about all the things that we don’t know about. I am talking about the changes that we do know about.

This is not a new thought for me. But it was brought to mind by this quote….

First, the consistently low birth rate since the 1990s will cause a noticeable contraction in newly available labor. The section of the population between 20 and 24 years of age will decrease sharply from 125 million in 2010 to just 68 million in 2020, a 50 percent decline in only 10 years.

This is not a prediction. It is a statement of fact. The people who will be between 20 and 24 in 10 years have already been born. There is an outside chance that some disaster could happen to make the next decade’s number of 20-24 year old smaller then predicted. But there is no way to make that number larger.

Yet even though that number is absolutely certain (as an upward bound at least), few people seem accept the vast change that sharp drop in numbers is going to represent for China. It is hard to even wrap one’s mind around a change in population that sudden and dramatic.

Still, one would think that people would at least try to take those facts into account. But most projections of China’s future totally ignore the sea change that is going to take place in China.

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