How trustworthy do you think most of the governments in the Middle East are? This question is important because according to a study requested by US Energy Secretary Bodman almost all the new oil for export in the coming years is going to come from the Middle East.

Now all by itself this is pretty depressing. But what would be even more depressing is that if no one could increase oil exports. After all, demand is projected to soar in China and other places. Without new sources of oil, prices are going to soar.

But as Stuart Staniford argues in this post, it is very likely that government in the Middle East are lying through their teeth about there likely reserves.

I won’t provide any quotes from his post, because his argument is too involved and chart dependent to quote well. But if you are familiar with Stuart Staniford body of work you know that just about anything he writes is worth reading.