Perhaps you have heard this….

The Pakistani military has been given orders to “open fire” on US troops crossing the border from Afghanistan to attack Taliban and al Qaeda safe havens, the military’s spokesman said. The order comes one day after Pakistani troops reportedly fired on US helicopters as they attempted to cross the border in South Waziristan.

It sounds serious. But the US does not have to worry about any shots the Pakistanis might fire. It is all hot air. The Nation (A Pakistani newspaper that has been breathing fire over the US incursions) explains why….

The Pakistani military is unlikely to bring its heaviest air defence hardware to bear in any bid to deter such incursions. Already fairly weakly equipped, these forces must remain largely dedicated to defences focused on India. Given the terrain, Pakistan’s heavier air defence assets would also be difficult to bring to bear beyond very isolated point-defence roles. And given their short supply, the Pakistani military would likely be hesitant to put these defences at undo risk of being destroyed.

More dispersed efforts using gunfire (Pakistan does retain anti-aircraft artillery) and Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS) would be problematic as well. Using this sort of defence effectively would require a comprehensive deployment along the border, something Pakistani forces probably do not have the bandwidth for at this time. Even if it did, this picket would still be very limited in capability given the limitations of both older MANPADS, anti-aircraft artillery and crude sensors in the rough terrain.

Though it could help with challenging the United States while maintaining deniability, the idea of dispersing MANPADS to proxies is also problematic. So much has been done since 9/11 to secure these stockpiles in places like Pakistan that even Islamabad might hesitate to do so – especially to third parties they do not control, since there would be the risk that MANPADS could be used to bring down a civilian airliner, and that Islamabad could be found out as the source of the weapon.

Instead, Pakistan could now be running combat air patrols with its F-16s over the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) if there is any truth at all to the news report. Pakistan has yet to secure a deal with the United States to buy new Block 50/52 F-16s, so its patrols are being run by F-16s still operating with the AN/APG-66 radar from the much older Block 15 configuration. They are not ideal, and they are certainly unable to hold up against US. and NATO patrols, but they are better positioned to spot inbound helicopters and ISR flights and give them a scare. In most cases (except when supporting troops already on the ground in Pakistan), the US abort criteria will likely generally be set low, since the United States is not interested in losing aircraft inside Pakistan.

But Islamabad is not interested in losing aircraft, either. Already facing a hostile US Congress over the delivery of the newer F-16s the Pakistani air force wants, Pakistan cannot risk losing the F-16s it does have. This is not simply because deteriorating relations with Washington have, in the past, cut off Islamabad’s F-16s from outside support, but because of a profound military disadvantage against India. New Delhi continues to field new Su-30MKI “Flankers,” which even the newer F-16s might have difficulty handling.

The article goes on to note that Pakistan’s only real lever is its control of the logistical route to Afghanistan that the Americans use. But the article fails to mention the fact that Pakistan is heavily dependent on US economic aid. In Pakistan’s current economic state, it could be destroyed as a nation by the removal of that aid.

So Pakistan leadership has every incentive to look the other way. The only problem is that popular opinion in Pakistan is at a boiling point. Most people in Pakistan don’t care if their economic order will collapse in the event that Americans pull their aid. They cannot tolerate the thought of Americans killing their country men no matter what the cost might be.

I think the Pakistani leadership is trying to bluff its way out of this problem. They are talking big about shooting Americans and yet they are doing nothing. It will be interesting to see how long they can keep this up.