Most people (ironically those deemed psychologically healthy) have an optimistic bias and generally assign too high odds of things working out well (the mildly depressed make more accurate assessments. I have often wondered which way the causality runs: do they make better assessments BECAUSE their unhappy state strips away the rose-colored filter, or are they mildly depressed because they keep giving more realistic assessments, which makes them a drag to be around, and they are depressed because they encounter social rejection?).
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In school, when, after reading into history, social science, etc. in my free time, I made a conscious effort to take a realistic appraisal of the world, I became a social failure. Of course, this also coincided with puberty and general stratification of the social world of my school, so it could have been unrelated.