I think the part about Cuomo’s star falling is wishful thinking. Andrew Cuomo’s Star Falling: Questions arise about NY forcing nursing homes to admit infected patients

For what it is worth. California Docs Say Lockdown vs. Non-Lockdown ‘Did Not Produce a Statistically Different Number of Deaths’

I am not saying this is bad in the abstract. But lets face it, when it doubt, code it COVID is going to be the order of the day.Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators

There is a chart going around from FT showing accesses deaths over the average from COVID. But that chart is misleading because the death rate is always going up and down. Look at this one for a better idea. Map of z-scores by country