Did you know that there are 34 countries with a fertility rate of 1.5 or less? Did you know that to keep population stable it you have to have a fertility rate of 2.1 or more? Did you know that more then half the world’s population has a fertility rate that is below replacement rate?
Do you think that those trends are nothing to worry about? If so, you owe to yourself to read Wolfgang Lutz, Vegard Skirbekk, and Maria Rita Testa’s paper called The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis: Forces that may lead to further postponement and fewer births in Europe.
This excellent paper lays out the reasons why it may be next to impossible to raise fertility rates once they drop below replacement levels. Even if you are not convinced by their interpretation of the data the paper will make you think.
For more on this paper, read this post by the Ape Man. And we call out a big thank you to the Alpha Source blog for bringing this paper to our attention.