This from Robert Rapier….
We could still potentially see $4 gasoline by summer, but it is looking increasingly less likely. Inventories should start to come down as turnaround season gets into full gear, but we are starting this year in a more comfortable place than last year. Presuming oil prices don’t go on a big run this spring, unless we have a repeat of last year’s steep draw down I doubt we will get close to $4 before summer.
Read the whole blog post for the supporting information. But the bottom line is that gasoline inventories are unusually high this year. The last time they where this high was back in 94. This should have a moderating impact on the price we pay at the pump.
Of course, there are still high oil prices and a generally inflationary environment working on prices from the other end. Still, we can hope that those who are predicting $4 a gallon gasoline will turn out to be wrong.