Now that strategy is in ruins. As things stand, Georgia will be fighting not to regain South Ossetia or even to deter aggression, but to survive. It is hard to see any good outcome. Georgia has failed to win a quick victory: crucially, it failed to block the Roki tunnel under the Caucasus mountains, normally used as a smugglers’ highway, but now the route for Russian heavy weapons that Georgia cannot counter for long. Worse, the authorities in Abkhazia, Georgia’s other breakaway region, may mount an attack, either on its own or with Russian help.
It seems clear that Georgia has failed to block the tunnel for long even if they did strike at as the Belmont Club suggested. Apparently there are TV clips showing Russian troops pouring out of those tunnels, though I have not seen one to link to yet.
Edit: Belmont Club provides its own dark update.
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