Can You Say Market Timing?

From the Wall Street Journal…

As recently as 1995, 73.5% of Berkshire’s total assets consisted of a portfolio of publicly traded stocks that (at least in theory) any investor could have replicated. As of June 30, though, Berkshire’s stockholdings made up just 25% of its total assets.

The whole thrust of the article is that it is hard to tell how good of a stock picker Warren Buffett is now because he invests in so many private deals. But Warren was saying since the late 90’s that the stock market was overpriced. So it is no surprise that he sought to make money elsewhere.

More to the point, Berkshire is so big that it is hard for Buffett to make money in the stock market. The stock market is not a big enough pool for a whale like Berkshire to play in. Berkshire’s shareholders are better off if Buffett uses Berkshire’s size to bully good terms out of people who are desperate for large amounts of cash.

Sooner or latter Buffett is going to fail and fail spectacularly. It is the nature of being human and I think that Buffett is to attached to the game to get out while he is on top. Still, his run so far has been amazing.

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