The Netherlands’ emergency preparedness personnel spent all of last week conducting an exercise dubbed “Ergst Denkbare Overstroming (EDO),” or worst possible flooding, a scenario in which they virtually placed one-third of the country underwater. In the computer models, the entire west and north coasts, as well as low-lying areas in the large Rhine River delta where two-thirds of the country’s 17 million people live were submerged.
The scenario spells pure horror for the Dutch. Just in time for the spring tide, under a full moon, a giant low-pressure zone with force 11 to 12 winds (wind speeds of 64 to more than 73 miles per hour) rolls in from the North Sea. The storm surge pushes five-and-a-half-meter (18-foot) waves against storm barriers along the coast. But the elements have even more in store for the unfortunate Dutch. There is a thaw in the Alps, and it has been raining heavily in Germany for days. The Rhine River is carrying 16,000 cubic meters (4.2 million gallons) of water across the German-Dutch border — every second.
The experts have calculated that this scenario is likely to occur once every 4,000 years. “But what good is this number to us? It could happen in a week,” says Berghuis, “and that’s why we would rather be prepared.”
I am surprised that the Netherlands has lasted as long as it has. I would not want to be dependent on a man made systems of dikes to keep dry.