Anything That Can Go Wrong Will Go Wrong

From Spiegel….

The Netherlands’ emergency preparedness personnel spent all of last week conducting an exercise dubbed “Ergst Denkbare Overstroming (EDO),” or worst possible flooding, a scenario in which they virtually placed one-third of the country underwater. In the computer models, the entire west and north coasts, as well as low-lying areas in the large Rhine River delta where two-thirds of the country’s 17 million people live were submerged.

The scenario spells pure horror for the Dutch. Just in time for the spring tide, under a full moon, a giant low-pressure zone with force 11 to 12 winds (wind speeds of 64 to more than 73 miles per hour) rolls in from the North Sea. The storm surge pushes five-and-a-half-meter (18-foot) waves against storm barriers along the coast. But the elements have even more in store for the unfortunate Dutch. There is a thaw in the Alps, and it has been raining heavily in Germany for days. The Rhine River is carrying 16,000 cubic meters (4.2 million gallons) of water across the German-Dutch border — every second.

The experts have calculated that this scenario is likely to occur once every 4,000 years. “But what good is this number to us? It could happen in a week,” says Berghuis, “and that’s why we would rather be prepared.”

I am surprised that the Netherlands has lasted as long as it has. I would not want to be dependent on a man made systems of dikes to keep dry.

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