Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2026
Ukraine Carried Out Its Deepest Drone Strike On Russia Ever. The strike hit an energy processing plant 1,700 miles from the Ukrainian border in Russia’s gas-rich Arctic region.
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces expand ground offensive against Houthis.
Copper Hits Record Highs While Smelters Lose Money on Every Ton.
The U.S. Corporate Tax Base That Now Resides in Ireland
How Debt Got to 100% of GDP: A From Riches to Rags Update. Had none of the major spending increases enacted between 2001 and 2023 ever occurred, we estimate debt would have been 65% of GDP in 2023. Similarly, if none of the major tax cuts enacted between 2001 and 2023 had ever occurred, debt would have been 61% of GDP. Alternatively, had the costs of Social Security and federal health programs been held constant as a share of GDP, debt would have been 52% of GDP in 2023. In other words, major spending increases, major tax cuts, and growth in entitlement programs can each individually explain most of the growth in debt-to-GDP not related to economic downturns. Although these counterfactuals only run through 2023, we expect very similar outcomes through 2026.
