Essay of the Week: 10/7/07-10/13/07

This week’s essay of the week is not really an essay per say. Rather, it is a slide show on the demographic changes in Europe. If you have been following Europe’s demographic situation, these slides might not tell you anything you do not already know. But even if that is the case, I still think that these charts will bring the reality of the crisis home.

For example, I already knew that the number of people over 65 had overtaken the number of people under 14 in Europe. But to see a chart comparing the growth of the number of the people over 65 with the fall in the number of people under 14 since 1980 really brought home to me how rapid this change has been. Makes you really think about what the next 25 years are likely to bring.

It is like seeing a train wreck in slow motion. Those under 14’s are the only ones who can have the children of the future. Not only are that, but those under 14’s are the ones who are going to have to pay for the retirement of their elders. It’s not going to be pretty.

This Little Piggy

Happy piggy, concerned responsible dog

One of the fun things about taking bicycle rides is you never know what you will come across. Sometimes you might see turkey vultures, other times . . . a pig.
Yes, this little piggy went to market. At least, he started that direction before he was sidetracked by the tasty leaves […]

How the consumers keep spending

This from Market Watch….

Outstanding U.S. consumer debt rose at an annual rate of 5.9% in August, pushed higher mostly by a hefty gain in credit-card debt, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.

The overall increase of $12.2 billion was the highest since May, the Fed reported. It pushed total outstanding consumer credit to $2.47 trillion in August, up from $2.46 trillion in July.

Outstanding consumer credit rose by an upwardly revised 4.7% in July. It was originally estimated to rise by 3.7%.

August’s data captures the impact of turmoil in financial markets that month, noted Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Economy.com. “They provide further evidence that consumers did not pack it in following the events,” he wrote in an email.

Revolving debt such as credit cards was the biggest driver behind the overall rise in August, the data show. That debt climbed by 8.1% in August, or by $6.1 billion.

This is from the Wall Street Journal…..

Despite potential tax and investment consequences, more individuals have been borrowing from their 401(k) plans or taking hardship withdrawals in recent months, some retirement-plan providers say.

Not all plans have seen jumps, and more-comprehensive statistics won’t be available until next year. But a number of plan providers that follow month-to-month patterns, including T. Rowe Price Group Inc., Hewitt Associates and Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., have seen a small but noticeable uptick.

Many in the field expect more 401(k) borrowing in 2008 as consumers struggle with tighter credit and potentially higher mortgage payments.

The Remarkable Faith of Wall Street

This from the Wall Street Journal…..

Merrill Lynch & Co.’s announcement Friday that it would take a $5.5 billion hit to third-quarter earnings is exposing the weak oversight exercised by top Merrill executives as it became a big force in the mortgage-securities business.

Wall Street has been reeling from the recent credit crunch tied to questionable home mortgages, with several companies taking multibillion-dollar write-downs. But Merrill is taking the biggest charge and is the only major U.S. firm so far that has said it will report a loss for the third quarter.

The announcement gave a boost to Merrill’s shares, which rose $1.89, or 2.5%, to $76.67 in 4 p.m. trading Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. That reflected investors’ relief that Merrill is trying to put the problems behind it.

The psychology that enables the markets to raise Merrill’s stock price after reporting over 5 billion dollars in losses continues to puzzle me. Especially considering that only a couple months ago Merrill claimed that therr exposure to sub prime was limited. As Wall Street Journal article above says….

In July, before the market worsened, Merrill’s chief financial officer, Jeff Edwards, said in a conference call with investors that the firm’s exposure to subprime mortgages was “limited, contained and appropriate.” These mortgages are typically made to borrowers with poor credit records, and their value has plunged this year.

Given that kind of track record and fact that the ARM reset charts that seem to show that the worst is yet to come, why is everyone relaxing now?

Another one bites the dust.

The Fed closes a bank out in Ohio…..

The Board of Directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today approved the assumption of the insured deposits of Miami Valley Bank, Lakeview, Ohio, by The Citizens Banking Company, Sandusky, Ohio.

Miami Valley, with $86.7 million in total assets and $76 million in total deposits as of October 1, 2007, was closed today by Ohio’s Superintendent of Financial Institutions, and the FDIC was named receiver.

The failed bank’s two offices will reopen tomorrow as branches of The Citizens Banking Company. Depositors of Miami Valley will automatically become depositors of the assuming bank.

Is China the dollar's only true friend?

The Fed betrayed the dollar by cutting interest rates. European’s don’t seem to want to hold dollars any more. And now, even the oil producers seem to be having second thoughts about the dollar. This from Brad Setser’s blog…..

I would note one additional change: a likely shift in the currency composition of the portfolio of the world’s large oil exporters. Qatar (hat tip Macro man) recently indicated that it cut the dollar share of its investment authority’s portfolio to around 40% . Kuwait has also reduced the dollar share of its portfolio. Russia cut the dollar share of its reserves from around 70% to around 50%. Pretty soon the Saudis will be the only big oil exporter keeping the majority of their assets in dollars …

Ramin Toloui calculates that the oil exporters need to keep around 60% of their assets in dollars for a rise in oil prices to be dollar positive. They probably aren’t doing that. More spending and investment in the oil-exporting economies also isn’t a dollar positive: the dollar’s share of the oil-exporting economies financial portfolio certainly tops the United States share of their import portfolio.

I am trying to convince myself to buy Chief Architect

I have wanted to own Chief Architect for a long time. What other program will enable you to create beautiful models of everything from light commercial buildings to grand log homes? What other program will also enabled you to print out full construction docs (including electrical, plumbing, and HVAC) for those same buildings? What other Click Here to continue reading.