A World Without A Future

This is the second part of a thought process that was started with The 80 Year Crisis Cycle of The United States. While the core argument will stand on its own without any need to reference what came before it, there are things taken for granted in this essay that will seem bizarre if you have not read the previous essay.

It would also be helpful if you have read the following essays but all of them will only serve to provide more depth to the below argument and are not strictly necessary.

A Rant On Japan’s Demographics.

Why you should panic about the US Deficit

The Ukraine Conflict And The Coming End Of Pax Americana

Now on to the essay proper…….

An 80 year crisis pattern has been the rule of the United States since it began as a nation. As we start a new year, it has been almost 80 years since the ending of the last crisis that the US faced. If this pattern holds, we should be entering another major crisis any day now. But is there any reason for thinking that American is soon to be faced with another crisis other then superstitious numerology?

If we review the past crisis America has faced, we see that they had demographic and technological antecedents that were observed by contemporaries even prior to the crisis. As a general rule, it was the demographic element that was most evident to those about to go through a major crisis. Long before the American Revolution, it was obvious that American Colonies were growing much faster than the mother country. The rapid growth in slavery and the fact that the population in the North was on track to overwhelm the South was widely known prior to the Civil War. And the rapid urbanization of America prior to Great Depression was known to everyone at the time. In all these cases, the nature of the crisis was a surprise, but the demographic forces leading to them were plain to all.

A common factor in all these crises is that they anticipated a demographic reality whose culmination was long after the time of the crisis. America did not equal the United Kingdoms in terms of population until just before the Civil War even though it was known that this was likely to happen at the time of the American Revolution. The culmination of the demographic submergence of the South into a larger America did not reach its fullest extent until about 80 years after the Civil War. And the widespread destruction of American small family farms did not take place until long after the Great Depression even though it was obvious that America was moving away from small farms long before that. If this pattern holds in the present time, America today should be heading towards another crisis whose demographic culmination we would have reason to believe is still a ways into the future. So does this pattern hold true today?

If we look at the world as whole, the answer to this question is simple. We know the modern world does not have a future. Continue reading

Links For Today


Ukraine Defies Russia With Large Exports Via Black Sea Corridor

After U.S. Navy Helicopters Sink Houthi Boats Are Strikes Next?

Maersk Opens Fire On Houthi Boat Swarm – US Navy Sinks Three

Russian civilians in the city of Belgorod describe the first hours of Saturday’s attack

Sweeping Chinese military purge exposes weakness, could widen, say analysts

China’s manufacturing PMI falls for third month in a row highlighting 2024 challenges for world’s second-biggest economy

Lumber Prices Up 9.6% YoY

Portland Poop Crisis Triggers Bacteria Outbreak Normally Found In Third World

Links For Today


Local news agencies publish, then remove articles saying 74 Russian sailors killed in Ukraine’s strike on Russian military ship in annexed Crimea

4-year campaign backdoored iPhones using possibly the most advanced exploit ever

Israel At War: Iran Steps Up Delivery of Advanced Weaponry To Hezbollah Terror Group

Elevating Naval Priorities: China Appoints Admiral as Defense Minister

The Cost Of Grain That Feeds The World Hits New 15-Year High

Fujimori’s Lesson for Milei

Britons increasingly turning to food black market

Links For Today


Ukraine Situation Report: Zelensky Appears Near Front In Avdiivka

Russia Launches Biggest Long-Range Attack Since Start Of War. More than 100 missiles and dozens of one-way attack drones rained down on at least six Ukrainian cities overnight.

Report: Chinese Spy Balloon Used U.S. Internet Provider

Uncovering Christian missionary efforts: What’s the price of support during war?

Report details Hamas’s secret buildup to Oct 7, terror group’s isolation in its wake

Red Sea Shipping Workarounds Add Costs, Delays for Suppliers, Retailers

Is It Time To Refill America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

The New Blue Screen Of Death? “Your Vehicle Cannot Be Driven”

Legal battles loom as first Mickey Mouse copyright ends

Charting the Decade-Long Surge in Car Prices

Links For Today


A video from a normally reputable source seemed to show an F-16 in Ukrainian colors and then the video was taken down without an explanation. Normally when this source takes down a video they explain why. Maybe they wanted to fuel paranoia or maybe something was revealed before it was supposed to. Russian Jets Downing in Ukraine Fuel F-16 Speculation

Iran-Backed Hezbollah Intensifies Terror Strikes on Israel, Drags Lebanon Into Conflict

Key US Navy Allies Abandon Red Sea Operation After White House Blunders

Deranged attacker accused of stabbing teen tourists at Grand Central had been cut loose by NYC judge over prosecutors’ pleas

Chicago, Denver, New York City Mayors Demand Federal Financial Support for Migrant Crisis

Maine secretary of state blocks Trump from 2024 primary ballot

The woman and her husband stopped to take photos at the edge of a cliff on the Beacon Hill Trail in Minnewaska State Park when she “lost her footing” and went over the side Friday afternoon, according to police.

Beef can simulate muscle protein synthesis more effectively then plant base proteins.

A new GPU generation did very little to change the speed you get for your money.

First Costco, Now Walmart? Major Retailers Now Offer Gold Bars

Pyrophosphate imaging agent shortage reported, could last weeks

Links For Today


Full Devastation From Cruise Missile Attack On Russian Ship Comes Into View

Operation Prosperity Guardian: Whose Prosperity is Being Guarded?

A look back at a year when shipping had to repeatedly change course

2024’s Deficit Is Already on Track to Be the Worst Since Covid

Pizza Hut franchisees lay off more than 1,200 delivery drivers in California as restaurants brace for $20 fast-food wages

Zombie deer disease is a ‘slow moving disaster’. Why scientists say humans should ‘be prepared’.

You Want It Darker

Normally artists are like anyone else. As they get older their output degrades and their best work is in the past.

But to everything there are exceptions. Leonard Cohen wrote “You Want It Darker” while he was in 80s and dying of cancer (he died 17 days after the album came out). The entire album would have been an achievement for anyone, much less someone in their 80s whose bones are breaking down under cancer. But I think that the title poem (I don’t think calling it a song accurate even though that it what everyone else calls it) is better then anything else the Cohen wrote when he was younger. It is as rich in imagery as his best work when he was younger but it is lot more disciplined and focused then the work he wrote as a younger man. As a result, it hits like a truck without seeming like it is trying to manipulate your emotions.

I think anyone can listen to this without knowing anything and find it very powerful. But if you want to get more out of this you need to remember that this is a very Jewish poem (the background chorus comes from his childhood synagogue). Perhaps the best thing people could do to improve their understanding of it would be to read this on the Jewish prayer Hineni and this on the Mourner’s Kaddish. I also think it is important to remember what lighting the candles on Hanukkah is remembering.

But I suspect (and I could be wrong as it is not as clear as the references above) that the most important reference in understanding this poem is the last part of Isaiah Chapter 50 which reads….

Who among you fears the Lord
and obeys the word of his servant?
Let the one who walks in the dark,
who has no light,
trust in the name of the Lord
and rely on their God.
But now, all you who light fires
and provide yourselves with flaming torches,
go, walk in the light of your fires
and of the torches you have set ablaze.
This is what you shall receive from my hand:
You will lie down in torment.

Regardless of the validity or lack therefore of my own understanding, you should listen to “You want it Darker” if you have not heard it yourself. It is the preeminent modern example of what good spoken poetry sounds like.

Links For Today


Ukraine Situation Report: Are Air Losses Pushing A Shift In Russian Tactics?

Shooting down the cruise missiles and the ballistic missiles in this matter was probably cost effective. But bet each of the drones was far cheaper then the missiles that was used to shoot them down never mind the other associated costs. Yemen’s Houthis unleashed a new onslaught of anti-ship and land attack weaponry today around the southern end of the Red Sea.

Beijing shivers through coldest December on record

Think China has a demographic problem? Check out Taiwan

Ethiopia becomes third African state to default on sovereign debt

Massive migrant caravan heading to US-Mexico border is largest in over a year, may balloon to up to 15K people, activist warns

Canadian Health Care Leaves Patients Frozen In Line

On AI: Will scaling work?