Inflation Links of Interest

From Naked Capitalism,

Although food inflation has been hard to miss (just go to a grocery store), it’s getting worse. Inflation in cereals, which drives the costs of other foodstuffs, is accelerating. Bloomberg reports that wheat has just risen to over $10 a bushel as corn and soybean prices are spiking; the Financial Times has a series of articles today on food price inflation.

From Mish,

Notice how the index for shelter is rising even though home prices are falling nationally. This tells me the .3% rise for shelter simply is not happening. This component was seriously understated for many years but is now overstated for the last two years. What is rising however, is the cost of “driving” a home so to speak. Energy (heating and utilities) are soaring but with $400,000 homes (2005 prices) now going for $250,000 in many places, the overall cost of housing for a new buyer has plunged. Unfortunately the debt hasn’t, and that debt is an enormous drag on bank and consumer balance sheets alike.

And Stuart Staniford has bunch of graphs relating to food inflation. He ends his piece by saying…

And there lie the key issues for wealthy citizens of developed nations I think.

In the last year, there have been food riots, protests, or stampedes in Mauritania, China, Senegal, India, Pakistan, Morocco, Mexico, Yemen, Indonesia, and Burkina Faso.

If food prices continue to go up, the world’s middle classes will still be able to afford ample food. But it’s hard to see how, in the long term, we will be insulated from the social and ecological collapses that might get triggered in poor countries.

Who says a gun needs to work to be the best?

This from Defense Tech….

You’ll remember that Defense Tech and Military.com were on top of the story of worries over the M4’s reliability in the dusty conditions found in Iraq and Afghanistan. Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn insisted the Army conduct side-by-side testing between the M4, SCAR, 416 and XM8 in an “extreme” dust environment.

Well, the tests are complete and it seems the M4 came in dead last against its competitors. And, guess what…the Army’s not budging. The M4 is still the best.

For those who do not keep up on military lingo, M4 is just an shorter version of the M16

Poem of the Week: 12/16/07-12/22/07

Growing up, I always thought that all rock and roll bands were stupid. The few times I heard some of the songs only served to confirm my bias. But as I worked in the trades I was kinda forced to listen to a lot of good old rock and roll. In the process I discovered that some of the classical rock bands actually had a talent that I could respect. There were a number of songs that I actually looked forward to coming on to the radio.

One such song is “Wish You Were Here” by Pink Floyd. You can read the lyrics here, but I think that it is better to just listen to the song through the clip below.

Essay of the Week: 12/16/07-12/22/07

One of the things that lead to the down fall of the Roman Empire was the fact that rich Romans no longer wanted to fight their own wars. The Abbasid’s lost power because they came to rely on their Mamluk armies to do their fighting for them. And so it goes throughout history. The separation of a nation’s elites and those who do the nations fighting invariable spells disaster for the elites.

In “On Forgetting the Obvious” Robert D. Kaplan highlights the growing divided between America’s military and the educated elite that rules the country.

The Problem with Cholesterol Lowering Drugs

From Reuters…

The use of cholesterol-lowering “statin” drugs, such as Lipitor (atorvastatin) and Zocor (simvastatin), may raise the risk of brain hemorrhage in patients who have experienced a recent stroke or a transient ischemic attack (TIA), new research suggests. Still, this risk may be outweighed by the ability of these agents to lower the overall risk of a second stroke and other serious events, such as heart attack.

The Bailout is Here

The the best explanation of the Fed bailout on the web comes from Interfluidity…..

I agree with several commentators (Felix Salmon, Calculated Risk) that the Bair/Paulson Plan, whatever it is, is not a bailout. But this, this is a bailout,. Nearly all government bailouts take the form of subsidized loans, extending credit at low rates to counterparties or against collateral for which the market would have demanded a high premium. That is precisely what the TAF will do. The Fed’s press release claims, of course, that loans will only be available to “sound” banks, and that they will be “fully collateralized”. But no one who can get the same deal from private markets will use this facility. The need for the program arises because private markets are skeptical about the soundness of counterparties and the quality of the assets they have to offer as collateral. The Fed hints at this when it mentions the “wide variety of collateral” that can be used to secure loans. You can bet that whatever it is private lenders are eschewing will be pledged as collateral to the Fed under TAF. The Fed is going to bear private risk that market refuses to. That is a bailout.

Calculated Risk also has things to say. Felix Salmon explains just how lax the requirements for collateral are…….

But what if the CDO is completely illiquid, and you can’t find a price for it at all? No worries, the Fed will still accept it as collateral, and lend up to 85% of par value. (There’s an interesting thought experiment here: what happens if a long-term CDO has a market value of, say, 90 cents on the dollar? In that case, an illiquid version of that CDO would actually be worth more to the Fed than the liquid version.)

Do keep on looking down that list, though: it turns out that banks can even put up as collateral subprime credit-card receivables – they don’t even need a AAA rating.

The Wall Street Journal has an explanation. Marginal Revolution has a take. So does Macro Man.

Ape Man is going to hate this. He wrote this rant before the bailout was announced.

Edit: I should have also included this from Bloomberg…

The Federal Reserve took advantage of emergency powers to authorize the auctions that officials felt were necessary to ease a credit squeeze, concluding it otherwise lacked legal permission to do so.

The Fed bypassed requirements for prior notice and public comment when writing the regulations to implement today’s agreement with the European Central Bank and three other central banks. The Fed’s official notice today said any delay caused by following standard procedures would have been “contrary to the public interest.”