Some Economic News

From MSNBC…..

With President-elect Barack Obama and congressional Democrats considering a massive spending package aimed at pulling the nation out of recession, the national debt is projected to jump by as much as $2 trillion this year, an unprecedented increase that could test the world’s appetite for financing U.S. government spending.

For now, investors are frantically stuffing money into the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury, which has come to serve as the world’s mattress in troubled times. Interest rates on Treasury bills have plummeted to historic lows, with some short-term investors literally giving the government money for free.

But about 40 percent of the debt held by private investors will mature in a year or less, according to Treasury officials. When those loans come due, the Treasury will have to borrow more money to repay them, even as it launches perhaps the most aggressive expansion of U.S. debt in modern history.

From USA Today….

Auto sales likely dropped a breathtaking 3 million vehicles in 2008, the largest decline since 1974, said Ford Motor’s head of sales analysis Friday.

The last time sales fell that much, the country was embroiled in the 1973 to 1974 oil embargo crisis, with drivers lining up outside gas station waiting for fuel.

Pakistan having Energy Problems

From Dawn….

As violent energy riots raged in various cities and towns, President Asif Ali Zardari here on Friday ordered an immediate end to gas load-shedding for domestic consumers and elimination of circular debt in the power sector that has bulged to Rs400 billion, crippling the power generation system, in six months.

Mr Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani headed a meeting at the presidency to discuss the energy crisis.

The meeting ordered some short-term measures for easing gas and petrol shortages and a few mid-term solutions to lessen load-shedding.

The measures included an assurance of daily supply of 30,000 tons of furnace oil to power generation companies which will likely add 2,700 megawatts of electricity to the system by month�s end.

The industrial sector has borne the brunt of the relief announced for domestic consumers. The gas shortage now amounts to 707 billion cubic feet a day and the ministry of petroleum believes that load-management is the only option to deal with the crisis.

Sources told Dawn the president was also informed that relief for domestic consumers meant a prolonged closure of factories, translating to more than an expected decline in industrial growth.

There is also this from Geo TV…

Gas crisis in the country continued unabated, as the supply and demand gap has widened up to 700mmcfd (million, million cubic feet per day).

The intensifying shortage of gas supply has now hit over 2500 industrial units in Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan and other cities/towns, whose supplies remain severed for the last several days and were forced to lockout, which has severely hit the production process resulting difficulties in meeting the export orders deadline and rendering the workers to unemployment in large numbers.

I am amazed that this is not receiving more coverage in the western press.

It begins

From the Telegraph….

Israel has launched a ground invasion of Gaza, sending a column of troops and tanks into the Palestinian territory to destroy Hamas rocket launchers.

It is hard to think of a good ending to this. Israel does not want to reoccupy Gaza, but anything short of that is unlikely to destroy Hamas. I think they are hoping that if they destroy enough tunnels and cause enough damage, Hamas will collapse on its own.

But I think that this is unlikely. TV stars have a way of getting the money they need to survive. And right now, Hamas is a TV star all over the Arab world.

Ukraine Gas Shut Off Up Date

First some back ground from the BBC….

Gazprom cut off Ukraine’s gas supply on Thursday in a row over payment.

The firm has since accused Ukraine of stealing gas, however Ukraine’s state energy firm said Russia was not sending enough gas to ensure the EU supplies.

Ukraine’s state gas company, Naftogaz, denied illegally siphoning Russian gas, saying it was ensuring the export supply.

Now note the following stories….

Poland sees gas deliveries from Ukraine drop.

Hungary says gas pressure from Ukraine drops.

Russian gas exports to Romania fall by 30-40 pct

Who knows where the truth lies, but it is hard to believe that the Ukraine would let natural gas transit a crossed its country while its own citizens were cut off. On the other hand Ukraine had higher stocks this time around, so it is possible that Russia cut supplies just to make it look like Ukraine was stealing.

Manufacturing heading for crisis

From Brad Setser….

The US index for new orders is at a sixty year low. Korea’s manufacturing output is shrinking faster than in the Asian crisis. China, Japan and Europe are all looking at manufacturing contractions too.

Over at Seeking Alpha, Edward Hugh has a collection of graphs showing the declining in manufacturing all over the world.

This can’t keep up for too long without serious problems.

We shall see

From Calculated Risk….

Another exception is New York. Prices in New York are only off 11.4% even though New York is part of the Zoned Zone. New York had a price bubble, but until recently prices had held up pretty well. This probably means New York house prices will decline by a larger percentage over the next year or two than other bubble areas …

Calculated Risk is talking about New York City, not New York State. Still, it has amazed me how well New York State real estate prices have held up compared to the rest of the country. Many places in upstate New York have not even seen as big as drop in prices as New York City has.

I doubt most consumers have even noticed

From the New York Times…

As American dairy farmers increased their shipments of powdered milk, cheese and other dairy ingredients to foreign markets, their incomes rose. And the demand surge helped drive up the price of milk for American families. The national average for whole milk peaked at $3.89 a gallon in July, up from an average of $3.20 a gallon in 2006.

But now, demand for dairy products is stalling amid a global economic slowdown and credit crisis, even as supplies have increased. The result is a glut of milk — and its assorted byproducts, like milk powder, butter and whey proteins — that has led to a precipitous drop in prices.

The price of powdered skim milk, used in infant formula, dairy products and processed foods, has fallen to roughly 80 cents a pound today from about $2.20 in mid-2007. Other dairy products have declined as well. Whole milk at grocers has not declined as rapidly as wholesale powdered milk, but it has dropped to $3.67 a gallon, down nearly 6 percent from the peak.

While consumers are undoubtedly pleased by the lower prices, dairy farmers are struggling.

Before I read this article, I had not realized that so much milk was being exported. I always thought it was mostly consumed in house. Which I guess it was until recently.