It is only a matter of time

From the Times…

Western powers believe that Iran is running short of the raw material required to manufacture nuclear weapons, triggering an international race to prevent it from importing more, The Times has learnt.

Diplomatic sources believe that Iran’s stockpile of yellow cake uranium, produced from uranium ore, is close to running out and could be exhausted within months. Countries including Britain, the US, France and Germany have started intensive diplomatic efforts to dissuade major uranium producers from selling to Iran.

Before Christmas, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office sent out a confidential request for its diplomats in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Brazil, all major uranium producers, to lobby governments not to sell uranium products, specifically yellow cake, to Iran.

Iran’s stock of yellow cake, acquired from South Africa in the 1970s under the Shah’s original civil nuclear power programme, has almost run out. Iran is developing its own uranium mines, but does not have enough ore to support a sustained nuclear programme.

Perhaps the western nations will be able to keep yellow cake out of Iran long enough for the nation to collapse. But otherwise trying to enforce a blockade is doomed to failure.

One of the biggest problems in this case is that acquiring atomic weapons is in Iran’s national interests even apart from religious/ideological questions. Given their strategic location, the nation would be transformed into one of the big cheeses of the world the instant they got the bomb. And most nations feel that becoming big cheeses is in their national interests. Thus, temporary setbacks are unlikely to stop Iran from marching toward the bomb even if there is a change in political leadership.

By contrast, the bomb was relatively unimportant to South Africa because nobody in the world really cares if anything in Africa gets blown up. Thus, having the bomb did not increase South Africa’s power or prestige by any appreciable amount.

A Note On Semantics

From the New York Times…

“The Chinese are probably one of the few people in the world who were sorry to see President Bush go, and are nervous about his successor,” said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution who worked on China policy for the Clinton administration.

You can’t use “few” to refer to the Chinese people. There are more then twice as many people in China as there are in Europe.

More to the point of the article, if Obama repairs relations with Europe, but America’s relations with China deteriorates, it will be a net loss for America. This is largely outside of Obama’s control regardless of what he says. So I am not trying to blame him.

But people who are celebrating the fact that America’s image is improving all around the world should take a good hard look at who is important and who is not. In the real world, some opinions matter more than others.

Pocket Change

From a Freddie Mac 8-K Filing…..

Freddie Mac (formally known as the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) is in the process of preparing its financial statements for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the year ended December 31, 2008. Based on preliminary unaudited information concerning its results for these periods, management currently estimates that the Federal Housing Finance Agency, in its capacity as conservator of Freddie Mac (Conservator), will submit a request to the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury) to draw an additional amount of approximately $30 billion to $35 billion under the $100 billion Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement (Purchase Agreement) between Freddie Mac and Treasury. The actual amount of the draw may differ materially from this estimate as Freddie Mac goes through its internal and external process for preparing and finalizing its financial statements.

The Purchase Agreement requires Treasury, upon the request of the Conservator, to provide funds to the Company after any quarter in which the Company reports a negative net worth (that is, the Company’s total liabilities exceed its total assets, as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles). The amount of the estimated additional draw described above reflects management’s current estimate of the impact of operating losses as well as other items that have a direct impact on the Company’s net worth in the fourth quarter. The Company previously drew $13.8 billion under the Purchase Agreement in November 2008, following its release of results for the third quarter of 2008. For further information, see “Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Executive Summary — Conservatorship — Entry Into Conservatorship and Treasury Agreements — Overview of Treasury Agreements” and “— Legislative and Regulatory Matters — Conservatorship and Treasury Agreements — Agreement and Related Issuance of Senior Preferred Stock and Common Stock Warrant” in Freddie Mac’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2008, filed with the SEC on November 14, 2008.

They took $13.8 billion in the third quarter and they think they are going to need 30+ billion in the fourth quarter. That is a more then 100% increase. Even if the rate of increase slows down, I don’t think the original 100 billion is going to be enough.

(h/t Calculated Risk)

Deflation not hitting food prices

From Seeking Alpha….

Prices for food in U.S. grocery stores jumped 6.6% last year – the biggest spike since 1980 – underscoring yet again that inflation is a much bigger problem than government officials, or most economists, say it will be.

Of all food categories, prices for cereal and baked goods hit U.S. consumers the hardest, zooming 11.7% in 2008 over 2007. Prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs gained 5.1%. Fruits and vegetable rose 3.4%, while dairy products advanced 2.7%.

It was the second straight year U.S. consumers were forced to pay a lot more for their groceries. In 2007, food prices at supermarkets rose 5.6%. Prices rose only 1.4% in 2006.

The article goes on to make the argument that inflation is still a problem and the government does not measure it properly.

Trickle Down Economics

From Clusterstock……

The news that Merrill Lynch paid out $15 billion in bonuses is sure to ignite new questions about the wisdom of bailing out Wall Street. Merrill Lynch took $10 billion from the TARP, allegedly to fill holes in its balance sheet. But instead of using that to repair its financial health, it simply put the money into the pockets of its employees. There is no way to defend this disgusting payout.

The media made a big deal about Republicans attempts to make the tax system less progressive. But they have been largely silent about the fact that Democrats and Republicans have united to give taxpayer money to people who are filthy rich. Personally, I would have just preferred that we make the tax system less progressive.

I would prefer rich people who are taxed at the same rate as I am to rich people who are on welfare.

Minor Pain

We are in a crisis in the western world. As a result, it seems silly to take note of the minor problems swirling around in the world. Still, it does not seem totally healthy to only pay attention to the big picture.

So here is a story about Palestinians who are made at Hamas.

Here is a story about a growing shortage of a critical industrial solvent.

Here is a story about the death of the iconic flight simulator.

Bankers in a Panic

From Market Watch…..

The bank probably needs to maintain a tangible equity ratio of 6% to 9%, he said. “It would take over $80 billion of new common equity to reach even the low end of the range, and we believe Bank of America simply is not generating sufficient capital internally in this environment to put a dent in this size capital hole.”

This is on top of all the other money already given to the Bank of America. And this is only the tip of the iceberg. Bank after bank has been posting horrendous losses. As this Calculated Risk post shows, bank stocks are getting killed. And they were already worth almost nothing. Wall Street is waking up to the fact that the banking system is insolvent and there is panic on the street.

What is really scaring people is that prime mortgage defaults have started to shoot up just when banks had thought they had worked through their sub prime losses. As more and more people lose their jobs it is only going to get worse. And if prime defaults are going up, the Agencies are really going to start needing cash. People are just beginning to see how much this is going to cost.

Edit: I forgot to add in this from the New York Times….

Stock markets had one of their worst Inauguration Day losses in more than a century, skidding more than 4 percent. Financial companies plunged more than 15 percent, their biggest one-day drop in nearly two decades, as investors worried that the troubles facing the country’s biggest banks might be larger and deeper than anyone had thought.

Even after record corporate write-downs and a $700 billion bailout to shore up the financial system, banks are still reporting huge losses, lining up for new government lifelines and cutting their profit outlooks.

The stock market drooped so much that the Dow is now below 8,000 if anyone cares about such meaningless number anymore.

From later on in the same New York Times article comes the money quote….

“At the end of the year, we saw some light at the end of the tunnel,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Company. “Unfortunately, we found out that the light at the end of the tunnel was a train.”

Gas Finally Flowing To Europe

From the Associated Press…..

Russian natural gas finally flowed into Europe once again Tuesday, after Moscow and Kiev pulled back from an energy war that drastically reduced supplies to many nations for two tough winter weeks.

But the resolution looked more like a cease-fire than a permanent peace, with no guarantee against renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, two former Soviet neighbors with sharply contrasting views of the future.

From later on in the article…..

Ukraine is to receive gas at a 20 percent discount from this year’s average European price, which Russia says is $450 per 1,000 cubic meters. That price is likely to decrease as the effect of slumping oil prices kicks in, but it still means a hike from the $179.50 Ukraine paid last year.

Russia pays the same amount as last year to ship the gas through Ukraine’s pipelines. But in 2010, both countries are to pay market prices — Ukraine for the Russian gas it uses and Russia for the transit of gas to Europe.

Any price increases will further cripple Ukraine’s inefficient economy, already badly hurt by the global financial crisis. The office of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko — Tymoshenko’s political rival — already has criticized the deal.

With the ink barely dry, Gazprom chief Alexei Miller suggested Ukraine might not be trusted to pay higher prices.

This is a complete defeat for Ukraine. But as the head of Gazprom cynically notes, it does not really matter. Ukraine is going to go broke in any case no matter what. It does not matter what they charge you when you know you can’t pay the bill.

For Real?

From the Washington Times….

An al Qaeda affiliate in Algeria closed a base earlier this month after an experiment with unconventional weapons went awry, a senior U.S. intelligence official said Monday.

The official, who spoke on the condition he not be named because of the sensitive nature of the issue, said he could not confirm press reports that the accident killed at least 40 al Qaeda operatives, but he said the mishap led the militant group to shut down a base in the mountains of Tizi Ouzou province in eastern Algeria.

He said authorities in the first week of January intercepted an urgent communication between the leadership of al Qaeda in the Land of the Maghreb (AQIM) and al Qaeda’s leadership in the tribal region of Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan. The communication suggested that an area sealed to prevent leakage of a biological or chemical substance had been breached, according to the official.