Essay of the Week: 2/15/09-2/21/09

For a change, we are putting forth a short, simple, and easy to understand essay for this week’s essay of the week. Like all short and simple things, The German Hyperinflation by George J.W. Goodman has its shortcomings. For one thing, the author’s knowledge of economics is poor. There is nothing mysterious or hard to fix about hyper inflation. One simply has to stop running the printing presses.

But such quibbles aside, the essay is full of valuable anecdotes for those who are not well acquainted with the history of German hyper inflation. The one lesson to take from this short essay is that inflation can get very bad and still not bring about the apocalypse. The apocalypse did come to Germany, but it came after the hyperinflation had been brought under control.

In other words, hell on earth does not come from economic systems that are not functioning properly. Rather, it comes from men who have been deified.

Random Links

A discussion on the latest evidence on the effectiveness of Satins. Comments more interesting then the post.

The socks that America’s special forces want to wear. Here is the company web site.

Texas tries to decided how it will deal with the fall out if Mexico collapses. The debate centers around the question of whether they should shoot them as they cross the river or build concentration camps? (I am exaggerating for shock value, but actual practices probably won’t differ too much from the spin I am putting on the choices being considered.)

Endless Black Hole Part Two

From Safe Haven….

But European banks may be in far worse shape. Bruno Waterfield of the London Daily Telegraph reports to have seen an eyes-only document prepared by the European Commission for the finance ministers of the various EU member countries. The problem revealed in the report is an estimated write-down by European banks in the range of 16 trillion pounds, or about $25 trillion dollars! The concern is that bailing out the various national banks for such an unbelievable amount would push the cost of government borrowing to much higher levels than we see today.

Say What???

From the Telegraph (Bold Tags added to highlight the shocker)….

The sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan – and Turkey next – and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (€155bn) reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights.

Its $16bn rescue of Ukraine has unravelled. The country – facing a 12pc contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices – is hurtling towards default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen and ING in the lurch. Pakistan wants another $7.6bn. Latvia’s central bank governor has declared his economy “clinically dead” after it shrank 10.5pc in the fourth quarter. Protesters have smashed the treasury and stormed parliament.

Based on my dim understanding of what the special drawing rights are, I don’t think it is fair to characterize them as giving the IMF the ability to print money. But I am hardly an expert on the IMF so what do I know?

For what it is worth, here is the IMF description of Special Drawing Rights and here is the the IMF description of its lending constraints.

One Way To Save Money

From the New York Times…

A three-judge panel has tentatively ordered California to reduce the population of its desperately overcrowded prisons by as much as one-third, or as many as 55,000 prisoners, over the next three years. The ruling was an extreme step — but a necessary one. Like many states, California is putting too many people behind bars for too long, and it doesn’t have the money to build more facilities.

Economic Problems Not Too Bad Yet

From R-Squared…..

It’s been taking place slowly, week after week, but low gas prices have brought gasoline demand back up. There has been anecdotal evidence that suggested demand might be heading higher, such as recovering sales of gas guzzling cars. But for watchers of This Week in Petroleum, the data confirm the anecdotes: Gasoline demand has recovered to the point that it is now higher in the U.S. than it was a year ago. This week’s Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data (off of which This Week in Petroleum is based) shows that the 4-week rolling average has for the first time in recent memory increased above (albeit slightly) the level of a year ago.

Granted, gas prices have fallen a lot. But for gas demand to have risen above where it was at last year shows that America can’t be that badly off yet.

They live in the Congo and they are just now discovering that they are on their own?

From the AP…

Rebels from the Lord’s Resistance Army sent torture victims — including a man whose back was sliced with a machete — to warn the people of this Congolese town they would be next.

The town’s three policemen fled and there was no response from the military and U.N. peacekeepers to the increasingly panicked pleas for help. That’s when residents realized they were on their own.

“We were sending warnings and begging for help practically every day for two weeks. And nothing happened,” said community leader Nicolas Akoyo Efudha. “We finally understood that we were abandoned — in danger and without protection.”

So Akoyo called a town meeting and told everyone to bring whatever weapons they had: pre-World War II rifles, homemade shotguns, lances, swords, machetes, hunting knives, bows with sheaths of poisoned arrows.

The women came armed with kitchen knives and log-sized wooden pestles used to pound yams into flour.

Since then, the residents of Bangadi have successfully driven off two attacks by the Ugandan rebels, who have killed at least 900 people in this remote northeastern corner of Congo over the past seven weeks.

It is commonly said that Africa suffers from too much tribalism. But the truth is that Africa don’t have enough tribalism. What passes for tribalism in Africa is really nothing more then racism.

A racist looks down on another ethnic group and favors his own when the cost of doing so are not all that great. A tribalist will fight for his tribe and listen to his tribal leaders. He will consider his own life as being worth little compared to the greater good of his tribe. A tribalist can be a racist, but just because one is a racist does not make you a tribalist.

The more you read about current African affairs, the more you will realize that there are plenty of racists in Africa and not many tribalist. An ethnic group that actually sticks together and helps each other out when the times gets tough is a rare thing in Africa. And when one does, they wield power all out of proportion to their numbers. Look at Rwanda for example.

Coming soon to a country near you

From the Telegraph….

More than three million people are having to help their parents financially as the savings crisis engulfs a generation of Britons, research has revealed.

A Daily Telegraph survey – the first of its kind since the recession began – highlights the heavy toll being taken on Britain’s so-called “Babygloomers”.

Almost one in ten adults are having to contribute to their parents’ upkeep, the research found. The Norwich Union research suggests more than 1.3 million adults aged between 17 and 65 are paying their parents more than £250 each month, with some paying up to £1,000.

Many pensioners have found themselves struggling as their income from savings has virtually disappeared following the drop in interest rates. As a result, they have been forced to turn to their children for help.

If the UK is anything like America, I would bet that there are more parents helping their adult kids than there are kids helping their parents.

Still, this demonstrates the costs of trying to lower interest rates in order to stimulate the economy. This is one of the reasons why lowering the interest rates can actually increase the savings rate as I explained in this post.

She Should Have Kept Her Mouth Shut

From Danger Room….

Is the CIA’s controversial drone war on Pakistani militants actually being flown out of Pakistan itself?

That’s the apparent bombshell dropped Thursday by Senator Diane Feinstein, during a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing. Depending on who you ask, it’s either a king-sized security breach, or a ho-hum replay of the press has already reported.

The fact that some media people may have already figured that out is irrelevant. Anybody with any brains has already figured out that Pakistan and the US had some kind of secret back door deal. And by the same token, everyone who had any brains understood why everything was being kept hush hush, and it was not to hide anything from the US people. By shooting her mouth off she made Obama’s job harder.

I believe that the American people have a right to know who their country is fighting and killing. But I don’t believe they have a right to know where the attacks are being flown from. Keeping such information hidden has always been part of warfare.