One Of The Problems With Economic Statistics In China

From the AP….

The difference lies in the way growth is measured. Beijing uses a method that compares growth in one quarter with a full year earlier and says its economy expanded by a healthy 6.8 percent in the final quarter of 2008.

But experts say that compared to the previous three months — the system used by most other major countries — China’s growth fell to as low as 1 percent or possibly zero.

“The recent weakness is much worse than the long-term trend,” said JP Morgan economist Frank F.X. Gong. Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu said fourth-quarter growth from the previous three months was “close to zero.”

The lower quarter-on-quarter growth figure would be in line with other indicators that show exports and manufacturing falling and weakness in investment and consumer spending.

Basically, they are saying the only reason that China is showing economic growth is because there was growth earlier in 2007.

Edit: It should be noted that the US is not a lot better when it comes to statistics. This from Dean Baker….

That may be hard to believe, but the economy almost certainly lost more jobs in January than the 597,000 job loss reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The reason is that BLS imputes jobs for new firms that are not included in its sample.

The formula used for calculating this imputation is backward looking, meaning that it depends on growth in prior quarters. When the economy takes a sharp turn in either direction, as it did last fall, the imputation is likely to be too high or too low, depending on the direction of change.

Give Me A Break

From the Telegraph….

A woman in labour with twins had to be taken to hospital by fire engine after neither ambulance nor helicopter could reach her in the snow.

For the price of scrambling a sea king once, they could buy themselves a decent four wheel drive truck. I have seen pictures of the snow that is paralyzing that country and it is nothing to write home about.

Losing The Mandate From Heaven?

From the Times….

The worst drought in half a century has parched fields across eight provinces in northern China and left nearly four million people without proper drinking water.

Not a drop of rain has fallen on Beijing for more than 100 days, the longest dry spell for 38 years in a city known for its arid climate.

And from later on in the article….

The drought could hardly have come at a worse time for the leadership, which is already gearing for possible social instability with some 20 million rural migrants now out of work after losing their jobs in coastal factories and in cities. Many have returned to work their farms while they wait for the economic climate to improve but may now find they are unable to grow a harvest with no water for irrigation.

“The duration, scope and impact of the drought are rare,” said Zheng Guoguang, chief of the China Meteorological Administration.

Among the worst hit provinces is central Henan, the most populous in China and source of the highest number of migrant workers. No rain has fallen in the province for 105 days, state media said today.

If you don’t know what the Mandate From Heaven is read about it here. Drought was one of the tradtional ways in which it became apparent that the Mandate From Heaven was lost. But I will bet that economic depressions help the idea along as well.

If I was a Chinese ruler I would be on my best behavior just in case. It has a better chance of working than their weather control technology.

How Things Change

From Rod Dreher…..

In the 1930s, he said, the US banking system was about half the GDP. Today, it’s 150 percent of GDP. In Britain, it’s 400 percent of GDP.

What’s more, in the 1930s America was nation that loaned money to the rest of the world. Now it is a nation that borrows from the rest of the world. This is one of many reasons why it is wrong to look to the 1930s for lessons on what to do today even if you buy Keynesian economics.

I guess he won't be getting a job anytime soon

From Abu Muqawama…..

General Jim Jones offered Zinni the Baghdad post. But a week later, Zinni was still twisting in the wind. We now know he was passed over in favor of Christopher Hill, leading the New Republic to describe the final exchange thusly:

an Obama appointment gone awry, which concludes with a respected general suggesting the national security advisor perform an anatomically difficult feat.

Not very nice perhaps. But we have to agree with Charlie. That was a good euphemism.