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Lebanon’s Energy Crisis Worsens As Central Bank Cuts Subsidies

Marines Prepare to Evacuate Kabul Embassy ahead of Possible Taliban Assault

Western Afghanistan is fully under Taliban control.

Siberian wildfires dwarf all others on Earth combined

College professor held in wildland arson spree near California’s massive Dixie Fire

CDC Took Mistaken Data on Delta Variant Transmissibility From a New York Times Infographic

I would have preferred if they acknowledged that it will get worse before it backs down again but they are right that this is data nobody sees. Three Charts The Delta Variant Scaremongers Don’t Want You To See

Europe Could Face A Natural Gas Crisis This Winter

Links For Today

The NSA’s Inspector General Opens Investigation Into Allegations of Illegal Spying on Tucker Carlson

Jan 6 Prosecutors admit to possession of “images of officers hugging or fist-bumping rioters, posing for photos with rioters, and moving bike racks”

A Black Market in COVID-19 Vaccination Cards Was Inevitable

‘I’m not gonna get it‘: The fight to vaccinate one of New York’s hardest hit communities

Ohio judge orders man to get a COVID-19 vaccine as part of his sentence

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Our concern that shutting down hospitals to “flatten the curve” would kill people was dismissed by the health establishment. They knew better. The ABS analysed every single doctor-certified death in Australia and compared it to the five years between 2015 and 2019. According to the ABS, cancer deaths are up by 8.9 percent. We sacrificed our businesses to protect the elderly in nursing homes. Dementia deaths are up 18.9 percent. The health establishment is taking victory laps over a reduction in influenza death thanks to our closed borders and social distancing. Deaths from respiratory diseases are up by 1.9 percent.

The labor market ran hot, real wages fell

“What Do Full Hospitals Really Tell Us About COVID?”

Thank the Babylonians, not Pythagoras, for trigonometry

The rise and fall of Andrew Cuomo, New York’s glowering heavy

World War II, Food Insecurity, And the Modern Situation.

The lack of sufficient food and outright famine was widespread problem in World War II although it is not something most Americans are aware of. Typically, the urban areas had it worst. This was partially because those in the countryside were growing their own food and partially because of German policy. Take the “Hunger Plan” for example……

The German “Hunger Plan” called for “the annihilation of what the German régime perceived as a superfluous population (Jews, and the population of Ukrainian large cities such as Kiev, which received no supplies at all); extreme reduction of rations for Ukrainians in the remaining cities; and reduction in foodstuffs consumed by the farming population.”

Now this plan was not fully implemented, but there were massive famines in the Ukraine. And from everything I have read, those in the countryside faired far better than those in urban areas in part because it was impossible for the Germans to get farmers to grow food for them and at the same time prevent the farmers from feeding themselves. Also, disruptions in supply lines from the fighting impacted the urban areas that needed to import their food a lot more then it impacted the rural areas that grew the food. We can see this same dynamic (urban famine, rural areas doing comparatively better) all over Europe.

One example would the be the “Great Famine” in Greece. As Wikipedia puts it (emphasis mine)…..

The nutritional situation became critical in the summer of 1941 and in the autumn turned into a full-blown famine. Especially in the first winter of occupation (1941–42) food shortage was acute and famine struck especially in the urban centers of the country. Food shortage reached a climax and a famine was unavoidable. During that winter the mortality rate reached a peak, while according to British historian, Mark Mazower, this was the worst famine the Greeks experienced from ancient times. Bodies of dead persons were secretly abandoned in cemeteries or at the streets (possibly so their ration cards could continue to be used by surviving relatives). In other cases, bodies were found days after the death had taken place. The sight of emaciated dead bodies was commonplace in the streets of Athens.

The situation in Athens and the wider area with its port, Piraeus, was out of control, the hyperinflation was in full swing and the price of bread was increased 89-fold from April 1941 to June 1942. According to the records of the German army the mortality rate in Athens alone reached 300 deaths per day during December 1941, while the estimates of the Red Cross were much higher, at 400 deaths while in some days the death toll reached 1,000. Apart from the urban areas the population of the islands was also affected by the famine, especially those living in Mykonos, Syros and Chios.

There are no accurate numbers of the famine deaths because civil registration records did not function during the occupation. In general, it is estimated that Greece suffered approximately 300,000 deaths during the Axis occupation as a result of famine and malnutrition. However, not all parts of Greece experienced equal levels of food scarcity. Although comprehensive data on regional famine severity does not exist, the available evidence indicates that the severe movement restrictions, the proximity to agricultural production and the level of urbanization were crucial factors of famine mortality.

We can read similar things about the Dutch famine during World War II. Again, going by Wikipedia (emphasis mine) …..

Food stocks in the cities in the western Netherlands rapidly ran out. The adult rations in cities such as Amsterdam dropped to below 1000 calories (4,200 kilojoules) a day by the end of November 1944 and to 580 calories in the west by the end of February 1945. Over this Hongerwinter (“Hunger winter”), a number of factors combined to cause starvation in especially the large cities in the West of the Netherlands. The winter in the month of January 1945 itself was unusually harsh prohibiting transport by boat for roughly a month between early January 1945 and early February 1945. Also, the German army destroyed docks and bridges to flood the country and impede the Allied advance. Thirdly, Allied bombing made it extremely difficult to transport food in bulk, since Allied bombers could not distinguish German military and civilian shipments. As the south-eastern (the Maas valley) and the south-western part of the Netherlands (Walcheren and Beveland) became one of the main western battlefields, these conditions combined to make the transport of existing food stocks in large enough quantities nearly impossible.

The areas affected were home to 4.5 million people. Butter disappeared after October 1944, shortly after railway transport to the western parts of the Netherlands had stopped in September due to the railway strike. The supply of vegetable fats dwindled to a minuscule seven-month supply of 1.3 liters per person. At first 100 grams of cheese were allotted every two weeks; the meat coupons became worthless. The bread ration had already dropped from 2,200 to 1,800 and then to 1,400 grams per week. Then it fell to 1,000 grams in October, and by April 1945 to 400 grams a week. Together with one kilogram of potatoes, this then formed the entire weekly ration. The black market increasingly ran out of food as well, and with the gas and electricity and heat turned off, everyone was very cold and very hungry. In search of food, young strong people would walk for tens of kilometers to trade valuables for food at farms. Tulip bulbs and sugar beets were commonly consumed. Furniture and houses were dismantled to provide fuel for heating.

In the last months of 1944, in anticipation of the coming famine, tens of thousands of children were brought from the cities to rural areas where many remained until the end of the war. Deaths in the three big cities of the Western Netherlands (The Hague, Rotterdam, and Amsterdam) started in earnest in December 1944, reaching a peak in March 1945, but remained very high in April and May 1945. In early summer 1945 the famine was brought quickly under control. From September 1944 until May 1945 the deaths of 18,000 Dutch people were attributed to malnutrition as the primary cause and in many more as a contributing factor.

There are a lot of other similar stories that could be told about World War II but the bottom line is that food scarcity was an issue in many areas during World War II and it always seemed to hit hardest in the urban areas. Now I think to a lot of people this is sort of like announcing that water is wet. Who would expect anything differently?

But the fact that the experience of World War II accords with people’s natural expectations is precisely the problem. The things that enabled rural areas to do better during times of food shortages at the time of World War II no longer hold true and yet I don’t think people have updated their thinking to account for the changes.

As Chelsea Green’s “A Short History of the Agricultural Seed” says (emphasis mine)……

These changes didn’t “take” with farmers overnight. First of all, many of these inputs were expensive, and most farmers were not operating on a cash-intensive system—they produced all or most of their own fertility, feed, and seed for their farms. Pesticides, nitrogen fertilizer, and even tractors wouldn’t become commonplace on North American or European farms until after World War II, and even later in other parts of the world. The main source of fuel on the farm was the grain and hay produced on-farm for horses. It’s hard to believe now that only 100 years ago, even in countries that were rapidly industrializing, most of the population lived on farms that were largely self-sufficient, breeding their own animals and growing their crops from seed they had grown.

I don’t think many people have fully internalized how unprecedented modern times are compared to most of recorded history. Urban areas have always been vulnerable to the collapse of complicated supply lines since the time of the Bronze Age collapse. Rome famously lived in fear of its grain supplies being cut off just as much as Great Britain feared submarines. But at the time of World War II a farmer in Great Britain could feed himself even if there were not enough famers in Great Britain to feed the largely urban population of what was one of the most urbanized countries in the world at the time. But now a farmer cannot feed himself without the aid of a long and complicated supply line anymore then a city dweller can.

Continue reading

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‘There is a real cost’: As Covid shows, barring bedside visitors from ICU deprives patients of the best care

Eric Topol Discusses Covid Vaccines Not Meeting Expectations, Breakthrough Cases Sicker

Not Realistic’: Denmark, Iceland Say Vaccination Has Not Led to Herd Immunity

After 6 years of litigation, Federal Court Permanently Enjoins ACA Abortion/Transgender Mandate

Thankfully, a new tactic in the fight to rapidly decarbonize is quickly emerging. Activists and young people are going to the courts and suing governments and fossil fuel companies. They are successfully arguing that polluters threaten their future and hence their human rights.

A controversial decision by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to cut bread subsidies despite an earlier promise not to tamper with the price of subsidized loaves has raised concerns that this move may trigger a wave of unrest reminiscent of the bread riots of 1977.

This is why I don’t use IRAs. It is ready pool of money ripe for the taking that you know that people can afford to lose in the short term. The trick used in other countries was to replace the savings with “more secure” government bonds. Right now they are only talking about the rich but that gets defined down in a pinch. Dems should keep their grubby paws off Americans’ retirement savings

China’s Commodity Stockpiles Remain A Complete Mystery

COVID-19 Vaccine Seems to Protect Against Variants Better Than Previous Infection

France expands locales requiring a Covid-19 ‘health pass’

Scores Soon To Be Settled

Pentagon to require COVID vaccines for all service members

Fifth northern Afghan capital falls to the Taliban

Some Thoughts on Preparedness

I know a good man who has some serious health problems that were sadly predictable. He worked for a long time in a very dusty environment. He knew that was a health risk and whenever his son helped him he made him wear a respirator. He had the equipment to protect himself and he had the knowledge that it was dangerous. But for whatever reason, he did not make use of those things.
You see that a lot. There are people who know that smoking is dangerous but only get serious about quitting after they get lung cancer. There are people who know that that tree work is dangerous but only become serious about safety after their brother is killed by a falling limb. It is human to know something, to have no real doubt that what you know is true, and yet to still fail to act on it.

The book of James mocks those who profess to have faith and yet fail to act on it. The same sort of logic can be applied to knowledge. We all dam ourselves by what we say we know and being flawed as we are, we can never totally avoid it. But it is worth making an effort to avoid condemning ourselves by what we say we know.

This is a particular danger for me because I am a very judgmental man. I look at the middle class in Lebanon and wonder how they can be crying in the newspapers about how they losing all their savings. Didn’t they realize they were living in a country that is a byword for instability? How could they have money in the bank but no food in the pantry? I feel the same way about the middle class panic buying in the shops in South Africa because they are afraid that the riots might cause supply disruptions. You live in Africa and you are not prepared for the stores to be empty for a few weeks?

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Links For Today

The Infrastructure Bill Requires New Cars To Come With Unproven Drunk Driving Detection Technology

Exclusive: New York Times quashed COVID origins inquiry

Viktor Orbán is winning his culture war

J&J’s COVID-19 jab holds up against Delta variant, study finds The important bit given the drum beat of calls for booster shots for the the other vaccines is “The inoculation’s durability lasts for eight months, and the study shows that boosters shots are not currently needed, said Gray, president of the South African Medical Research Council.” However, the article also lays out new health concerns for J&J.

Hawaii’s tourism agency plans to reduce visitors to Oahu

Humane, orderly? Border photos show human disaster amid overflowing toilets

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The policy went into effect January 1, and since then, 261 inmates have requested transfers, nearly all of them biological males asking to be housed with women.

If you asked public-health authorities for permission to be born and live a life, there’s no way they could just, you know, approve of that in an unqualified way. You just have to remember that you’ll never be in less danger to yourself or others until dead.

Apple’s IPhone: Now With Built‐​In Surveillance?

If Mandates Fail, What Will Politicians Do for an Encore?

Taliban takes second provincial capital

The strange case of the dead-but-not-dead Tibetan monks

Don’t want a Covid vaccine? Be prepared to pay more for insurance

15 states are keeping COVID-19 breakthrough cases under wraps

Dixie Fire becomes largest single wildfire in California history

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This is crazier then normal and that is saying something. Teachers Union Sues Mom Nicole Solas To Prevent School District From Releasing Critical Race Teaching Records

Murphy was an engineer not an MBA The company aspires to deliver these two flight engines to United Launch Alliance before the end of this year, although that increasingly appears to be a “stretch” goal. Delivery may slip into early 2022. And in order to make this deadline, Blue Origin plans to take the somewhat risky step of shipping the engines to its customer before completing full qualification testing.

VACCINE PASSPORTS AS SLAVE PAPERS:

Taliban takes full control of Nimruz province, seizes capital

‘Borderline illegal’: Courtesy tows remain Philly’s persistent parking nightmare

Safe Streets is a program trying to deal with violent crime with social workers and ex-offenders instead of coops. For the second time this year, an outreach worker for Safe Streets has been shot to death.

Worker shortage stymies vaccine mandates at nursing homes