High Praise

From Maureen Dowd…..

Instead they have Gillibrand, who voted against the Wall Street — as in New York — bailout bill. And who introduced a bill to balance the federal budget annually, which suggests she would oppose the $825 billion in deficit spending that President Obama proposes to rescue the country, not least New York.

Actually, this is all meant to be insults and not praise. And sadly, it is not true. I doubt that Gillibrand will have the guts to oppose anything Obama does, regardless of what she has said she believes in the past. Still if this is the best dirt that Maureen Dowd can throw at Gillibrand, it speaks pretty well of her.

For the Troll

From the Common Room…..

The Equuschick herself, a staunch believer in the differences between men and women and their God-given roles in family life, is often both amused and annoyed by the way these roles are defined or sometimes even manipulated by people who claim to be following God-given roles.

Far too often a couple who claims to be following the Scriptural model for gender roles are actually following a cultural tradition without any foundation.

And what fascinates her the most, is that it is just as often women who manipulate the roles to serve their own purposes as it is men.

Would have been rant of the week, but we had too many other good choices. And if we waited another week, we would have forgotten it. But its tone and content reminded us of our very own Troll. She can do the work of two strong men and she only eats as much as your average tabby cat. That is what you call a deal.

Edit: In the interest of being fair and balanced it should be pointed out that she does not make brownies as often as the Bible says a good female should. Indeed, she seems to be shirking that particular duty lately.

Edit Again: Some may doubt that the Bible has anything to say on the subject of brownies. But we are indebted to the early church father Origen for pointing out that the deeper meaning of Proverbs 31:14 -15 is “Woman, make brownies.” If you doubt me, it is clear you know nothing about Origen. Our conclusions follow directly from his methodology.

It is only a matter of time

From the Times…

Western powers believe that Iran is running short of the raw material required to manufacture nuclear weapons, triggering an international race to prevent it from importing more, The Times has learnt.

Diplomatic sources believe that Iran’s stockpile of yellow cake uranium, produced from uranium ore, is close to running out and could be exhausted within months. Countries including Britain, the US, France and Germany have started intensive diplomatic efforts to dissuade major uranium producers from selling to Iran.

Before Christmas, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office sent out a confidential request for its diplomats in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Brazil, all major uranium producers, to lobby governments not to sell uranium products, specifically yellow cake, to Iran.

Iran’s stock of yellow cake, acquired from South Africa in the 1970s under the Shah’s original civil nuclear power programme, has almost run out. Iran is developing its own uranium mines, but does not have enough ore to support a sustained nuclear programme.

Perhaps the western nations will be able to keep yellow cake out of Iran long enough for the nation to collapse. But otherwise trying to enforce a blockade is doomed to failure.

One of the biggest problems in this case is that acquiring atomic weapons is in Iran’s national interests even apart from religious/ideological questions. Given their strategic location, the nation would be transformed into one of the big cheeses of the world the instant they got the bomb. And most nations feel that becoming big cheeses is in their national interests. Thus, temporary setbacks are unlikely to stop Iran from marching toward the bomb even if there is a change in political leadership.

By contrast, the bomb was relatively unimportant to South Africa because nobody in the world really cares if anything in Africa gets blown up. Thus, having the bomb did not increase South Africa’s power or prestige by any appreciable amount.

Trickle Down Economics

From Clusterstock……

The news that Merrill Lynch paid out $15 billion in bonuses is sure to ignite new questions about the wisdom of bailing out Wall Street. Merrill Lynch took $10 billion from the TARP, allegedly to fill holes in its balance sheet. But instead of using that to repair its financial health, it simply put the money into the pockets of its employees. There is no way to defend this disgusting payout.

The media made a big deal about Republicans attempts to make the tax system less progressive. But they have been largely silent about the fact that Democrats and Republicans have united to give taxpayer money to people who are filthy rich. Personally, I would have just preferred that we make the tax system less progressive.

I would prefer rich people who are taxed at the same rate as I am to rich people who are on welfare.

Bankers in a Panic

From Market Watch…..

The bank probably needs to maintain a tangible equity ratio of 6% to 9%, he said. “It would take over $80 billion of new common equity to reach even the low end of the range, and we believe Bank of America simply is not generating sufficient capital internally in this environment to put a dent in this size capital hole.”

This is on top of all the other money already given to the Bank of America. And this is only the tip of the iceberg. Bank after bank has been posting horrendous losses. As this Calculated Risk post shows, bank stocks are getting killed. And they were already worth almost nothing. Wall Street is waking up to the fact that the banking system is insolvent and there is panic on the street.

What is really scaring people is that prime mortgage defaults have started to shoot up just when banks had thought they had worked through their sub prime losses. As more and more people lose their jobs it is only going to get worse. And if prime defaults are going up, the Agencies are really going to start needing cash. People are just beginning to see how much this is going to cost.

Edit: I forgot to add in this from the New York Times….

Stock markets had one of their worst Inauguration Day losses in more than a century, skidding more than 4 percent. Financial companies plunged more than 15 percent, their biggest one-day drop in nearly two decades, as investors worried that the troubles facing the country’s biggest banks might be larger and deeper than anyone had thought.

Even after record corporate write-downs and a $700 billion bailout to shore up the financial system, banks are still reporting huge losses, lining up for new government lifelines and cutting their profit outlooks.

The stock market drooped so much that the Dow is now below 8,000 if anyone cares about such meaningless number anymore.

From later on in the same New York Times article comes the money quote….

“At the end of the year, we saw some light at the end of the tunnel,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Company. “Unfortunately, we found out that the light at the end of the tunnel was a train.”

Point and Counter Point

Over at Abu Muqawama’s blog, Abu Muqawama and Gian Gentile got into a little argument over whether the army is becoming so involved in counterinsurgency that it is losing its ability to fight real wars. They also have differences on whether current counter insurgency doctrine is all that it is cracked up to be or not.

The real meat of the discussion took place in the comment section because Abu Muqawama comment section has been doing most of the heavy lifting lately.

Originally, I was not going to link to this argument because it is rather nerdy and I did not think anyone other than myself would be interested. But towards the end of the discussion a new commentator joined the fray who calls himself Looking Glass. I think his words are worth reading even for people who only have a general interest in what is going on over in Afghanistan.

If you don’t have time to read the whole thread, you can read what Looking Glass said here, here, and here.

The talk is jargon heavy, but it is based on real experience as Looking Glass’s last comment makes clear. More importantly, it is well argued.

I certainly had more sympathy for Gian Gentile’s viewpoint before reading Looking Glass’s comments than I do now. More to the point, I think I have a better appreciation for what is going wrong in Afghanistan. Especially after reading Looking Glass’s last comment.

U.K to follow Iceland?

From the Telegraph….

The taxpayer will be forced to underwrite up to £200 billion of bad banking debt under a government plan to take control of assets belonging to Britain’s major high street lenders, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

Calculated Risk notes that if the the US handed out as big as a bailout in proportion to its GDP it would have to be almost 10 trillion dollars. Markets are not reacting well to this news. Unlike Macro Man, I personally feel that an Iceland like collapse is coming for Great Britain in the near future.

Russia's Plan To Destroy Ukraine

This came via RussiaToday, which is a propaganda arm of the Russian Government (sort of like voice of America except more effective)

The claim about the proposed American backed pipeline having no gas to ship is wrong. Certainly those countries are currently selling their gas to Russia and China, but that is because they have no other way of getting it to market. There is nothing in their contracts that would make those countries keep on selling the gas to Russia and China once they had alternatives. Moreover, if that pipeline were to be built, lots of western companies would come in and find new sources of gas.

The real issue for the proposed American backed pipeline is who has the will and capability to defend should it be built. Furthermore, it is questionable if any of the proposed pipelines can be built in the current economic climate. Who is going to fund them when everybody is worried about keeping their banking systems intact? That is Ukraine’s only prayer in this contest.

In the long term, this is all a non-issue. The real issue is the continuing implosion of all Slavic societies. Spats such as this one will only accelerate that implosion.

Central Banks Believe That US Interest Rates Will Rise

From Brad Setser….

The same story applies to the official sector as a whole. Central banks sold $26.2b of long-term Treasuries, but added $66.6b to their short-term Treasury holdings. Net central bank holdings of Treasuries — judging from the TIC data — rose by $40.4b. That is consistent with the $49.1b rise in the Fed’s custodial holdings of Treasuries. Central banks by contrast are reducing their holdings of short-term and long-term Agencies. They sold $14.3b of long-term Agencies, and their short-term holdings likely fell by a comparable amount.**

Selling long dated treasuries in exchange for short dated Treasuries is a sign that they think interest rates will rise in the near future. Otherwise the move does not make any sense at all in this environment. What do they know that we do not?

The Black Hole Demands More Money

From Felix Salmon…..

Both Citigroup and Bank of America are down more than 20% in early trade today, and I imagine that Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner are starting work on yet another weekend deal of some description, since at this rate it seems that neither institution is capable of surviving in its present form much longer. They should embrace the inevitable and just nationalize the two banks.

The Economics of contempt has more. But I am not sure he is right that only Bank of America has problems. But recent news stories do make it seem that Bank of America is the most desperate right now.

But all the banks seem to be in big trouble right now. Look at this from Calculated Risk.