Reasons to worry

This from Spiegel…

Deutsche Bank’s announcement that it is short €29 billion has Germans fretting. If the country’s biggest bank is in trouble, what does that mean for the others? Commentators think it could be bad news.

This from the New York Times….

The dollar remained at a low ebb today against major world currencies.

One euro traded at $1.4090 this afternoon, up from $1.4065 yesterday, the first time in the common European currency’s nine-year history that it has crossed the $1.40 mark. The British pound also rose, trading at $2.0202, after closing at about $2 yesterday.

And the American dollar remained at virtual parity with the Canadian dollar, the first time that the two currencies have traded that closely since late 1976. It was trading today at 1.0007.

This from the New York Times via Calculated Risk….

It is a measure of the continued confidence in the power and wisdom of central bankers that markets around the world rallied. Both moves showed that the bankers had grown more fearful of credit market contractions damaging economies, but investors initially chose to focus on the action rather than the fears.

By yesterday, however, the markets were moving in ways that cannot have made the Fed happy. The dollar fell — an expected result from cutting short-term interest rates — but long-term rates rose, and so did mortgage rates.

“Alan Greenspan’s conundrum is becoming Ben Bernanke’s calamity,” said Robert Barbera, the chief economist of ITG, recalling that when the Fed raised short-term rates under Mr. Greenspan, long-term rates did not follow. Now the opposite is happening, a fact that will make it that much harder to stimulate the economy.

Those wanting to understand the Fed’s reversal can profit from reading two papers by Fed officials, released this summer as the credit squeeze was worsening.

In total, they constitute an admission that the Fed was surprised by the housing and borrowing boom on the upside, and now fears it will be surprised on the downside.

A Good Question

This from Marco Man…

Macro Man has long been more favourably disposed to the buck than many. His disavowal of the “dollar must go down forever” thesis is one of the reasons that he (unfortunately) didn’t delta hedge his powerball strip. However, even his patience has its limits. A few weeks ago, he noted that any aggressive gesture from the Fed to bail out turd-holders and reflate asset markets would force him to turn structurally bearish.

That has now come to pass, and in what Dennis Gartman might refer to as a “Watershed” moment, Macro Man has lost faith in George Washington. Simply put, if the Fed doesn’t give a crap about protecting the purchasing power of the dollar, why should anyone hold it?

Meanwhile, Jeff Matthews mocks the Fed. And Saudi Arabia declines to follow the Fed off the cliff.

Israeli Strike hits North Korean concrete shipment.

From the Telegraph……

A suspicious North Korean freighter that re-flagged itself as South Korean before off-loading an unknown cargo at the Syrian port of Tartous is at the centre of efforts today to investigate Israel’s recent air strike on Syria.

An Israeli on-line data analyst, Ronen Solomon, found an internet trace for the 1,700-tonne cargo ship, Al Hamed, which showed the vessel started to off-load what Syrian officials categorised as “cement” on Sept 3.

This was three days before Israeli jets attacked a site in the north eastern desert of Syria, not far from its border with Iraq.

North Korea is famous for its exports of concrete.

In other news, I think Israel has taken a step up with their new defenses minister Ehud Barak. He made some calls when he was a prime minister that might seem questionable to conservative types. But his decisions as defense minister are at least understandable. That is more then you can say for his predecessor.

As an example, read this article in The Times….

Early in the summer Ehud Barak, the defence minister, had given the order to double Israeli forces on its Golan Heights border with Syria in anticipation of possible retaliation by Damascus in the event of air strikes.

Sergei Kirpichenko, the Russian ambassador to Syria, warned President Bashar al-Assad last month that Israel was planning an attack, but suggested the target was the Golan Heights.

Israeli military intelligence sources claim Syrian special forces moved towards the Israeli outpost of Mount Hermon on the Golan Heights. Tension rose, but nobody knew why.

At this point, Barak feared events could spiral out of control. The decision was taken to reduce the number of Israeli troops on the Golan Heights and tell Damascus the tension was over. Syria relaxed its guard shortly before the Israeli Defense Forces struck.

That is an exercise in deception that you would expect from a guy who dressed as a woman in order to assassinate people in downtown Beirut while it was controlled by PLO.

You could argue he should have kept the troops on the border just in case. But I can understand not wanting to do anything to jeopardize the air strike if it was really a nuclear target. Israel can handled Syrian conventional forces in almost any conceivable situation. But if you flub an attack on a weapon of mass destruction, you might not get a second chance.

In that context, making it look like Israel was backing down was probably the right decision. You don’t expect an enemy who is withdrawing troops from your border to attack you.

H/T The Belmont Club which also has satellite photos of possible targets. Apparently, Syria’s nuclear research agency is big on doing agricultural research