Why the discipline of economics is fundamentally flawed

From a New York Times profile of Roubini….

The dismal science, it seems, is an optimistic profession. Many economists, Roubini among them, argue that some of the optimism is built into the very machinery, the mathematics, of modern economic theory. Econometric models typically rely on the assumption that the near future is likely to be similar to the recent past, and thus it is rare that the models anticipate breaks in the economy. And if the models can’t foresee a relatively minor break like a recession, they have even more trouble modeling and predicting a major rupture like a full-blown financial crisis. Only a handful of 20th-century economists have even bothered to study financial panics. (The most notable example is probably the late economist Hyman Minksy, of whom Roubini is an avid reader.) “These are things most economists barely understand,” Roubini told me. “We’re in uncharted territory where standard economic theory isn’t helpful.”

I am not a big fan of Roubini, but this a good explanation of the fundamental problem of economics.

The question is does Europe care about Europe?

From Spiegel….

After promising to leave, Russian troops haven’t budged from Georgia in the wake of a surprising flare-up of violence in the Caucasus. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also wouldn’t budge in his posture toward Angela Merkel during a mini-summit on Friday. German commentators wonder if Russia cares about Europe at all.

Of course Russia cares about Europe. It is a tasty morsel. If Russia controls Georgia and the pipeline that goes through it, they will have greater power over Europe. But does Europe really care who its overlords are?

I find this hard to belive

From the New York Times….

From an analysis of the skeletons and pottery, scientists identified the two successive cultures that occupied the settlement. The Kiffians, some of whom stood up to six feet tall, both men and women, lived there during the Sahara’s wettest period, between 10,000 and 8,000 years ago. They were primarily hunter-gatherers who speared huge lake perch with harpoons.

I don’t don’t that Sahara was wet at one time. But I do doubt that a culture where people where often in the 6 foot tall primarily ate fish that they speared with harpoons.

Blame the pill for high devoice rate?

From the Times…..

The research found that the Pill can alter the type of male scent that women find most attractive, which may in turn affect the kind of men they choose as partners. It suggests that the popular form of contraception — used by a quarter of British women aged between 16 and 50 — could have implications for fertility and relationship breakdowns.

Just A Reminder

From Brad Setser…..

The PBoC now has a larger dollar balance sheet (on the asset size) than the Fed. It holds around a trillion dollars of Treasuries and Agencies (over $950b can be identified using the TIC data, and the TIC data understates China’s holdings … ). The Fed has around $900 billion in assets — $940 billion, to be precise.

Moreover, the PBoC’s dollar balance sheet is growing far faster than the Fed’s dollar balance sheet. The Fed has responded to the credit crisis by changing the composition of the assets it holds, not by increasing its holdings. The PBoC by contrast is adding to its foreign assets at an extraordinary rate.

PBoC’s= The People’s Bank of China (In other words, China’s Central Bank)

One more reason not to travel

From McClatchy Newspapers…

In Chevy Chase, for example, where speeding tickets brought in about $8,000 monthly before cop cams, “We are routinely bringing in approximately a quarter-million dollars per month,” Geoffrey Biddle, Chevy Chase’s village manager, told his Board of Managers in February.

For a community of 2,000 with an annual budget of $4.6 million, that’s a bonanza. What’s more, because locals know enough to evade the cop cams, the village’s new revenue mostly comes from outsiders, rather like a commuter tax.