The Quality Of The Builder Matters More Then Codes

From the Associated Press….

Daniel Borntreger’s home looks like hundreds of other Wisconsin farmhouses: two-story A-frame, porch, clothes on the line.

But his home could cost him thousands of dollars in fines. Borntreger, an Amish farmer, built the house himself according to Amish tradition — but without a building permit.

His case is among at least 18 legal actions brought against Amish residents in Wisconsin and New York in the past year and a half for building without proper permits, according to court records, attorneys and advocates for the Amish.

Reading between the lines, it seems that the code authorities are out of their minds with stupidity. Pennsylvania has made things work, and there have been no safety issues. Moreover it does not seem that the Amish have any problem paying for the permits. Their problem is stupid regulations that try to force them to have electrical outlets or forbid them from cutting their own lumber.

More to the point, have you ever looked at the price of property in Lancaster PA? It is out of this world. So many yuppies want to live next to the cool Amish that new Amish families can’t afford to live there anymore. On top of that, tourists come from all over to spend money in Lancaster because of the Amish.

Now all over the country property prices are falling and people are losing their jobs. And some idiotic town inspectors are going to try to drive out a group of people who are better then any stimulus package?

On top of that, anyone who would prefer a house built to “code” over one built by the Amish is out of their mind. You can add what the Amish don’t easier then you can make up for the lack of craftsmanship in a typical house.

The Fed Talks Out Of Both Sides Of It's Mouth

Does anyone remember when the Fed use to focus on “Core Inflation?” The argument back then was that you should exclude volatile things like Energy and Food to get a true picture of the underlying inflationary pressures. Now get this from the Fed Report….

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent.

Since the Committee’s last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters.

Why don’t they strip out Energy and Food prices to get a true picture of the underlying inflationary pressures? As Megan McArdle notes…

The fall in the CPI was driven almost entirely by energy prices, without which the price index was flat.

When the CPI was high, people argued that interest rates should not be raised because underlying cause for the high CPI numbers was a rise in volatile energy prices. Now those same people argue that we need to cut rates because volatile energy prices are falling. I just don’t get it.

Even relative optimists like Felix Salmon are starting to get a little worried. At the closing of his post dealing with today’s cuts he says…

Did we really need a zero interest rate policy, or Zirp, on top of this? It would be great if we could get some reassurance from FOMC members that they understood the downside of today’s move and know what they’re doing. Because it really worries me.

Editors Note: The “This” in the above quote is referring to the Fed’s promise to print money and intervene directly in the markets.

Payback for Teutoburg?

From Spiegel….

Evidently the Romans and Germans fought a bloody battle in the third century AD, said archaeologist Petra Lönne. Some 1,000 Roman legionnaires may have been involved in the fight.

Intriguingly, the find includes more than 300 iron projectiles that were fired by powerful Roman torsion weapons known as scorpions (scorpio), which could catapult heavy darts with a high velocity and deadly accuracy. It had a range of 300 and was portrayed in the opening battle scene of the Hollywood movie “Gladiator.”

“The bolts were found densely clustered,” said archaeologist Henning Hassmann.

Historians say the discovery of the battlefield is so significant because it appears to refute the assumption that the Romans withdrew from Germania after their defeat by an alliance of Germanic tribs at the battle of the Teutoburg forest in 9 AD.

This longer article from Spiegel has more details. As best as they can tell, some German’s took a stand on the hill. There, they got pounded by the scorpions and Roman auxiliaries. After pounding the Germans for a while, it seems that the Romans attacked the hill from two different sides of the hill. They seem to think that the Romans won.

Fire People

From Danger Room….

Now, it’s confirmed. The Air Force has indeed blown a third test of its nuclear handling capabilities, as Danger Room first reported over the weekend. In a memo, the Air Force confirmed that the 90th Missile Wing at F.E. Warren Air Force Base “rated unsatisfactory” on its nuclear surety inspection. Testers found fault with the missile unit’s “management and administration,” as well as “tools, tests, tie-down and handling equipment.”

Its not that they have been good for many years and know they are slipping. Its that they have been bad for many years and now they are finally being held to account.

Just so you know

From the New York Times…

Gov. David A. Paterson will propose a $4 billion package of taxes and fees on a range of items, from sugary soft drinks made by Coca-Cola and Pepsi to luxury items like furs and boats, when he unveils his plan to close a deficit that has ballooned to $15 billion, people with knowledge of the plan said on Sunday.

Higher taxes will also be imposed on health insurers and a sales tax exemption on clothing and footwear under $115 will be eliminated, though the administration will propose a two-week holiday for goods under $500, under the budget the governor will introduce on Tuesday.

A number of fees will be increased, with users of the Department of Motor Vehicles and the state parks bearing much of the burden, people with knowledge of the plan said. Tuition at the State University of New York and the City University of New York will also be increased.

Then there was one

From Brad Setser….

In October, China was about the only central bank adding to its reserves (I suspect, it hasn’t formally released its reserves data). Most central banks were selling. That shows up in the US TIC data. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Ukraine were all net sellers of long-term US Treasury bonds …

The big central bank flow was a reallocation away from Agencies toward Treasuries. And specifically toward short-term Treasury bills.

China increased its holdings of short-term Treasury bills by a stunning $56 billion while also buying $10 billion of long-term Treasuries. That flow alone would have been enough to cover the trade deficit in the absence of any offsetting outflows.

You have got to admire China’s determination to make this all work. But how much longer can the prop us up.

(I know, I know, people can stay stupid for longer then I think. But I have to believe they are pushing their limit)

Can't say I blame them

From the Telegraph….

Pakistani hauliers are refusing to transport supplies to coalition forces in Afghanistan following a series of attacks on their vehicles.

The decision follows a deterioration in law and order along the 35-mile stretch between Peshawar, where the military supplies are stored, and the Khyber Pass which links Pakistan with Afghanistan.

Hundreds of Nato and US-led coalition vehicles have been destroyed in the last two weeks after depots were targeted by hundreds of militants in northwest Pakistan.

Mohammad Shakir Afridi, president of the Khyber Transport Association, in the northwestern city of Peshawar said: “We have stopped supplies to foreign forces in Afghanistan from today.

“We have around 3,500 trucks, tankers and other vehicles, we are the major suppliers to Afghanistan, transporting about 60-70 per cent of goods.”

A lot of this is just bluster. These dudes don’t have a lot ways of making money short of driving truck for the US. They just want someone to take their security seriously. At most, they may go so far as cut off supplies for a day or two to make their point.

Still, in the broader context this is a serious issue. War is not just a matter of how many of the enemy you can kill. It is also a matter of how well you can protect your friends. It does no good to win every stand up engagement if your enemy can melt into a population that fears them more then you. This simple idea forms the basis behind any sane counterinsurgency doctrine.

Now the truck drivers probably don’t have a deep love for the US. But if US does not do its best to take care of the truck drivers, the US can forget about getting any other Pakistani to give them a hand. More to the point, without a working supply line, the US can forget about doing anything in Afghanistan.

And don’t tell me that it is the job of the Pakistani government to protect the truckers. Should cuts no ice when your troops are the ones at the end of a shaky supply line. If the US government really believes that the Pakistani government is competent they should stop flying predators over the border every other week. If the US government does not believe the Pakistani government to be competent (and what sane person does?) they should realize that the security of their supply lines is ultimately their problem.

Piracy Spreading?

From the Times of India….

Striking yet another blow at the very heart of piracy in the Gulf of Aden, Indian warship INS Mysore and its marine commandos thwarted a hijack attempt on an Ethiopian merchant vessel on Saturday and captured 23 pirates and a large arms cache in the operation.

The arrest of the 23 pirates (12 Somali and 11 Yemeni) and the arms haul is the largest such seizure in the ongoing anti-piracy operations off Somalia. The confiscated arms and equipment included seven AK-47s, three other assault rifles, 13 loaded magazines, a rocket-propelled grenade launcher with two rockets, several grenades, a GPS set and a mobile phone.

Have the Yemenis really started joining up with the Somalis to commit acts of piracy? I have read accounts of Yemenis being rescued from Somali pirates, but this is the first time I have heard that they were joining up with them.

Proof that markets can stay irrational for longer then you can stay solvent

From Jeff Matthews….

You might think a supposed $50 billion fund with audited statements from an unknown accounting firm with no web site might, oh, raise some eyebrows.

And it did.

As the Wall Street Journal has reported, one individual more or less laid out the issue for the regulators in language that does not get much clearer, nor much further from the actual truth:

“Harry Markopolos, who years ago worked for a rival firm, researched Mr. Madoff’s stock-options strategy and was convinced the results likely weren’t real.

“Madoff Securities is the world’s largest Ponzi Scheme,” Mr. Markopolos, wrote in a letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 1999″.

Here is a guy who correctly identified a Ponzi Scheme almost ten years ago. Yet he had to wait that entire time for people to acknowledge that he was right.

Always remember that no matter how stupid you thinks something is, and no matter how certain you think collapse is, it can always continue on for far longer then you think. And that is assuming that you are right.

Greece Pays The Dane-geld

From an interview that Spiegel did with Greece’s Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis…..

SPIEGEL: Why have the police reacted in such a restrained and passive manner?

Bakoyannis: The police have not reacted passively, rather they have sought to de-escalate the situation. The government decided that it would rather accept material damage than new casualties and victims.

Earlier in interview Spiegel characterized the material damage this way..

The protests have been more than just an outpouring of anger and grief. In Athens alone, block after block has been devastated.

Accepting this kind of damage in the name of de-escalating the situation strikes me as paying the Dane-geld to a bunch of punks.