The Death Of A Secular Society Prefigured

From the Jewish Press…

Religious Zionists today make up about seven percent of the total population of the country. But their sons comprise twenty percent of IDF combat soldiers, nearly a quarter of the IDF’s junior officer corps, and fifty percent of its company commanders.

The growing prominence of religious Zionists in all combat arms of the IDF is a consequence of a now two-decade trend among religious Zionists in Israel to serve in combat units – the more elite, the better. A contrary trend among upper middle class secular youth not to serve in the IDF at all renders the contribution of the religious youth all the more noticeable to the general public and all the more crucial for the IDF.

That latter trend has found a sympathetic audience in Yediot’s pages. Just last month the paper ran a cover story in its weekend magazine showcasing the daughter of the deputy head of the Mossad. The young woman is now anticipating prison in the wake of her refusal to serve in the army due to her anti-Zionist ideological beliefs.

These countervailing social currents of increased religious participation and decreased secular participation in fighting units was brought to the public’s attention in a graphic manner during the Second Lebanon War. In the course of the war, only one soldier from Tel Aviv was killed in battle while over a dozen soldiers from religious communities were killed in combat.

h/t The Belmont Club

A secular society is one that will not last long. From having children to military service, secular cultures have shown themselves unwilling to do the things that a culture needs to do to survive. Most conservatives would agree with this observation.

But conservatives tend to take it for granted that what will replace a secular culture will be better as long as it does not come from outside the racial/cultural subgroup that they belong to. I have no such confidence.

Its Official

From Felix Salmon….

If you’re one of those people who needs a negative GDP number to convince yourself that we’re in a recession, here you go. But the headline -0.3% figure isn’t the worst bit: that would be the 8.7% fall in disposable personal income. If there was any doubt about the outcome of this election, that number alone should put it to rest: there’s no way that the incumbent party can win in that kind of economic environment.

From the Economist….

The unemployment rate has risen to 6.1% and is set to continue upwards. Ford and General Motors, as well as Whirlpool, an appliance manufacturer, are among big American firms that have announced job cuts recently. Employment figures due for release on November 7th are likely to show that around another 175,000 jobs were lost in October, pushing the unemployment rate up to 6.3%, according to a survey of forecasts by Bloomberg. Fewer jobs mean lost income and less spending.

Companies seem to be cutting overtime and hours worked more then jobs. I think that is a good thing. But how long can it last?

I don't need any help forgetting anything

From Danger Room….

A team of scientists from the United States and China announced last week that, for the first time, they had found a means of selectively and safely erasing memories in mice, using the signaling molecule αCaMKII. It’s a big step forward, and one that will be of considerable interest to the military, which has devoted efforts to memory manipulation as a means of treating post-traumatic stress disorder. But some military research has moved in another direction entirely.

Can you imagine what would happen if Israel used poison gas to kill Arabs?

From Spiegel…..

He is the foreman of a working party and has been digging for the past eight months. During that time two of his friends died underground. One was electrocuted, the other was killed when the Egyptians released poison gas into his tunnel. Mohammed was there when the gas canisters burst. “We heard the explosion and crawled back as fast as we could. Imad was behind us, the gas got him.” He says a short prayer, and also includes the two men who died last night.

A little throw away line in a Spiegel article. Who cares if Arabs use poison gas to kill Arabs?

That is the problems with the critics of Israel. If they actually believed what they said they believed and they actually fought for it, they might be a force for good in the world. Instead, they have one standard for Israel, and another for the rest of the world.

And I thought that duct tape would cure cancer

From the New York Times….

In a tour de force of office supply physics, researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles, have shown that it is possible to produce X-rays by simply unrolling Scotch tape.

From latter on in the article…

The tape phenomenon could also lead to simple medical devices using bursts of electrons to destroy tumors. The scientists are looking to patent their ideas.

One Trillion Dollar Deficit

From Bloomberg…..

The U.S. Treasury faces historic financing demands from a weakening economy and the added costs of a $700 billion Wall Street rescue program, the department’s top domestic finance official said today.

“This year’s financing needs will be unprecedented,” said Anthony Ryan, the Treasury’s acting undersecretary for domestic finance, at a Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association conference in New York, where he was a last-minute substitute for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

Ryan’s borrowing outlook comes after Treasury officials spent much of the past month publicly praising the rescue plan’s virtues. The Treasury needs to sell debt to raise money for the new initiatives and also cope with a weaker economy, two factors analysts say may push the country’s budget deficit to more than $1 trillion for the current fiscal year.

Considering the original forecast was for 400+ billion dollar deficit, that is quite a jump.

What Is Your God?

From The Belmont Club…

In other words, it would have been better if Benes had just left things alone. Just two weeks after the magnificent last stand of the Anthropoids at the Church of Saints Cyril and Methodius, a huge rally in support of the Third Reich was held in Wenceslas Square, as this video shows. The Nazis gloated that “terror has produced the desired results”. It did, even politically. Benes himself was taken to task after the war for launching the operation on Heydrich without considering the consequences on the Czechs. In the end, as Camus observed, it is always innocence and not guilt that is called on to justify itself. Guilt doesn’t give a damn.

The true test of your ideals is not what you achieve, but what you will give up to achieve them. One of the reasons that the Nazis conquered so easily was that no one in Europe was willing to give up very much in order to oppose them. As I argued in my essay “The Crisis of Authority,” World War II revealed how weak the ideals of much of Europe really were (and are). Only the communists where willing to fight and die in large numbers in the conquered nations (with the possible exception of Norway).

It is telling to read how many people consider such sacrifices a mistake even on a conservative blog like the Belmont Club. Here is one such comment….

Only in Communist-led resistance, where they gladly traded 1,000 innocent civilian lives to kill 12 enemy troopers, persisted. In the communist mindset, large casualties are acceptable because individual life is cheap compared to the importance of revolutionary macrotrends that are sought to be cultivated by partisan attacks and mass reprisals. Mao felt the same way as Stalin or Tito or their minions in France.

In one sense I agree with this. The communists most certainly did not value life. Nor do I wish to make the communists into heroes. But having as your highest goal the preservation of yourself and your family is no better. The natural result of this desire is to make any man who can credibly threaten to kill you or your family into a kind of God. If you insist on a certain chance of success before you will do anything you are saying that you will worship anyone who is sufficiently powerful.

What bothers me about today’s conservative movement is that there is so many people who are willing to boast about what evil things they would do to preserve their family’s life and so few people willing to boast that they would give up their lives and their family’s lives for their ideals even if that accomplished nothing.

The reason we have it so good in the west is that there were a number of people in our past who laid down their lives with no hope of getting any benefit for themselves or their families in return. When there is no one left who is willing to do that, the “west” will cease to exist in its current state no matter how powerful it is.

Land slide for Obama?

From Megan McArdle….

Even more shocking is that my grandmother, a rock-ribbed Republican who to my knowlege has never voted Democratic and will not let a bad word be spoken about George W. Bush in her hearing . . . that GOP-lovin’ granny almost voted for Obama. At the last minute, she decided that since she lives in Western New York, and there’s no chance of Obama losing the state, she could safely support her party. But that she even thought about voting for the Democrat augers dire things for the McCain campaign.

I would dismiss this anecdote accept that I have seen the same thing. For example, I know a firm supporter of the Republican Party whose opinion of African Americans would put him in the raciest working class white man category. He told me that for the first time in his life he has thought about voting for the democratic ticket.

Of course, I know firm McCain supporters. But it does not seem good that McCain is struggling to keep the support of people who voted for Bush two elections in a row and every other republican candidate previous to that.

A lot of lower income white males who are die hard republicans could support the war in Iraq as long as it was about killing people. But when it became about rebuilding the country it was harder for them to support it. There is too much stuff around them that needs to be rebuilt for them to be happy with hundreds of billions of dollars to be spent on a country that they feel will just turn against them in the end. Throw a trillion or so in bailouts for the banking industry when the manufacturing firms were allowed to go under, and you have the makings for some serious class resentment.

People in my area still miss those manufacturing jobs and they don’t understand why they left.

Credit Collapse Hurting World Trade?

From Naked Capitalism….

The cause is the break down of the world commodity trading system. For the past few weeks Andy and I have been reporting in our respective dailies on the difficulties being faced by importers and exporters of basic materials in getting access to bank finance to fund trades. For example, Andy wrote about South Korea’s request for immediate aid support from the US to fund food and fuel imports, I discussed how the lack of trade finance was reducing the volume of coal shipments into Rotterdam and was affecting the volume of US grain exports. When you come to think about it, if banks are reluctant to lend to each other because of perceived counter-party risk, why are they going to lend to a small trader from Asia, Africa or even Europe. We know of banks that have rejected letters of credit from other banks – and we are aware of banks that have simply refused to pay out on letters of credit because they claimed they did not have access to the funds. Without a working trade finance system the global market is going to break down……….eventually.

And that’s where we are at the moment. The reason that spot iron ore prices in India have collapsed – more than halving in three months, is because Chinese demand has vanished but it has vanished because of a combination of real demand destruction and apparent demand destruction caused by the inability to finance cargoes. Its the same for other bulk commodities, industrial metals, coal, oil and even food. The slump in global demand for basic materials is real but it is not as bad as the BDIY would make you believe.