This is not how triple-A sovereigns behave. It’s as though the analysts at Moody’s were only able to see one step ahead, and not two: they could anticipate that Iceland would bail out its banks, but they couldn’t anticipate that when a tiny country bails out a bank whose assets vastly exceed the country’s own GDP, then the sovereign itself loses much creditworthiness. One scary datapoint: the assets of Kaupthing Bank amount to 623% of Iceland’s GDP, which is possibly why its own credit default swaps are trading somewhere over 2500bp.
Category Archives: Front Page
You knew this was coming
There was is so much bad stuff in the Bloomberg article that I don’t know where to start. For starters there is this….
California, the most populous U.S. state, will run out of money by the end of this month and needs $7 billion in funding.
Naturally, the feds are being asked to cough up.
But that is not the worst of it. There is also this….
One California lawmaker said the state should consider borrowing the money from its public employee pension system, the largest such pension fund in the U.S., with $214 billion in assets.
Senator Dean Florez, a Democrat, said the California Public Employees’ Retirement System could buy all the state’s cash flow notes, earning more in interest than the system would by investing that same amount of money in U.S. Treasury notes.
Has China's milk really been contaminated with melamine?
But something fishy seems to be going on here. For one thing, melamine is not all that easy to dissolve into milk. For another, there’s been a worldwide shortage of melamine for some time now. Its price has shot up to more than $1,750 per tonne from $1,100 a few years ago.
So why use an expensive industrial chemical that’s in short supply to dilute a dirt cheap product like milk? The answer can only be that either some flaw rendered the melamine industrially worthless, or it wasn’t melamine at all. The first suggestion is scary enough; the second is even more ominous.
The only thing your correspondent can imagine that would render melamine industrially worthless is if it were reclaimed waste from the production process.
Industrially, melamine is usually made by heating urea in the presence of a catalyst. Because large amounts of ammonia and carbon dioxide are given off in the process, most modern plants now combine melamine production with urea production, which uses ammonia and carbon dioxide as feedstocks. As the two processes feed off one another, a combined plant is considerably more efficient than two separate ones.
But the final stage—washing the melamine and turning it into crystal form—produces lots of effluent that needs treating before releasing into the environment. The usual way to do that is to filter the waste water and pipe that away, and then dispose of the concentrated solids separately.
Those accumulated solids are around 70% melamine, with the rest being made up of various by-products, including our old friend cyanuric acid. As mentioned before, a mixture of melamine and cyanuric acid can be a nasty witches’ brew, especially when ingested by infants.
But what if it’s not melamine that’s being used to spike China’s diluted milk? Urea may be not as rich in nitrogen, but it’s certainly a whole lot cheaper (around $650 per tonne). Sprayed into the milk at the temperature used to create a powdered product for baby food and confectionery, enough of the urea would be converted into melamine to show up in tests.
Credit crisis could disrupt American higher education
From the New York Times (h/t Naked Capitalism)…….
In a move suggesting how the credit crisis could disrupt American higher education, Wachovia Bank has limited the access of nearly 1,000 colleges to $9.3 billion the bank has held for them in a short-term investment fund, raising worries on some campuses about meeting payrolls and other obligations.
Wachovia, the North Carolina bank that agreed this week to sell its banking operations to Citigroup, has held the money in its role as trustee for a fund used by colleges and universities and managed by a Connecticut nonprofit, Commonfund.
On Monday, Wachovia announced that it would resign its role as trustee of the fund, and would limit access to the fund to 10 percent of each college’s account value. On Tuesday, Commonfund said that by selling some government bonds and other assets held in the fund, it had succeeded in raising its liquidity to 26 percent.
Still, Wachovia’s announcement sent shock waves through higher education, sending hundreds of college presidents rushing to check their financial vulnerability on every front.
Some smaller colleges that had not previously arranged lines of credit were feverishly seeking to negotiate those on Wednesday. And some large institutions said they were facing, at the least, a major financial inconvenience as a result of Wachovia’s action.
The Manufacturing Sector Is In Big Trouble
Just so you know
Pennsylvania must now find another source of revenue to bridge a transportation funding shortfall estimated at $1.7 billion in November 2006.
The state has about 8,500 miles of roadway rated in “poor condition,” said Rich Kirkpatrick, a state Transportation Department spokesman. The state has 6,034 bridges rated as structurally deficient as of June 30, the most of any state in the U.S., Kirkpatrick said.
A Nation So Rich And So Stupid……
Worth watching if you can get past the first few minutes.
Words fail me. (h/t Calculated Risk)
What the abyss looked like
Paul Kedrosky has dug this quote out of a Center for European Policy Studies report.
The K-10 annex of AIG’s last annual report reveals that AIG had written coverage for over US$ 300 billion of credit insurance for European banks. The comment by AIG itself on these positions is: “…. for the purpose of providing them with regulatory capital relief rather than risk mitigation in exchange for a minimum guaranteed fee”. AIG thus helped to organise regulatory arbitrage on a gigantic scale. A formal default of AIG would have had a devastating impact on banks in Europe. This explains why AIG’s problems had sent shock waves through the share prices of European banks. For the time being the US Treasury has saved, inter alia, the European banking system, but given that AIG is to be liquidated European banks now have to scramble to find other ways of obtaining the ‘regulatory capital relief’ they appear to need urgently.
If you remember the interview with Germany’s finance minister that we quoted yesterday, you will remember that he said…
In the case of Lehman, the US government wanted to send a signal to the market that they are not prepared to offer a bailout under any circumstances. In the case of AIG, we had direct talks at the G7 level and implored them to stabilize the situation. An AIG bankruptcy would have triggered shock waves around the world. We were all staring into the abyss at that point.
I think Mr. Kedrosky has helped illuminate what the abyss looked like.
Some good questions
I have, of all the inglorious things, a malignant hemorrhoid. What color bracelet does one wear for that? And where does one wear it? And what slogan is apropos? Perhaps that slogan can be sewn in needlepoint around the ruffle on a cover for my embarrassing little doughnut buttocks pillow.
You never know when you many need to know the answers to those questions. Sadly, O’Rourke does not provide the answers. Instead, he offers up some really bad philosophy.
You will see more of this
Strache, 39, led his Freedom party to 18% of the vote in an early general election on Sunday. His former boss and mentor-turned-rival, Jörg Haider, single-handedly steered his breakaway far-right Movement for Austria’s Future to 11% – meaning that almost one in three Austrians who voted opted for the extreme right.
“A unique case among the western democracies,” said Profil yesterday as Viennese liberals reeled from the results of an election that put the far right comfortably ahead of the mainstream conservatives of the Austrian People’s party and neck-and-neck with the Social Democrats, who narrowly won the election.
It will be very difficult for any party to muster a parliamentary majority. The only options are for the Social Democrats to invite Strache into government, or to form another “grand coalition” with the Christian Democrats. Such a coalition collapsed in June after 18 months in office, and another attempt could fire a bigger protest vote for Strache next time.
The Freedom party last stunned Europe in 1999, when Haider led it to second place with 27% of the vote, and a place in government. On Sunday, under Strache, the combined far right did even better, while the big parties did much worse.