One Of The Problems With Economic Statistics In China

From the AP….

The difference lies in the way growth is measured. Beijing uses a method that compares growth in one quarter with a full year earlier and says its economy expanded by a healthy 6.8 percent in the final quarter of 2008.

But experts say that compared to the previous three months — the system used by most other major countries — China’s growth fell to as low as 1 percent or possibly zero.

“The recent weakness is much worse than the long-term trend,” said JP Morgan economist Frank F.X. Gong. Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu said fourth-quarter growth from the previous three months was “close to zero.”

The lower quarter-on-quarter growth figure would be in line with other indicators that show exports and manufacturing falling and weakness in investment and consumer spending.

Basically, they are saying the only reason that China is showing economic growth is because there was growth earlier in 2007.

Edit: It should be noted that the US is not a lot better when it comes to statistics. This from Dean Baker….

That may be hard to believe, but the economy almost certainly lost more jobs in January than the 597,000 job loss reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The reason is that BLS imputes jobs for new firms that are not included in its sample.

The formula used for calculating this imputation is backward looking, meaning that it depends on growth in prior quarters. When the economy takes a sharp turn in either direction, as it did last fall, the imputation is likely to be too high or too low, depending on the direction of change.

How Things Change

From Rod Dreher…..

In the 1930s, he said, the US banking system was about half the GDP. Today, it’s 150 percent of GDP. In Britain, it’s 400 percent of GDP.

What’s more, in the 1930s America was nation that loaned money to the rest of the world. Now it is a nation that borrows from the rest of the world. This is one of many reasons why it is wrong to look to the 1930s for lessons on what to do today even if you buy Keynesian economics.

Shock!

From US News…

Media reports suggest Senate Republicans have become a key focus of stimulus talks, an acknowledgement that they appear to hold the balance of power in that chamber despite having only 41 seats to the Democrats’ 58. The Washington Post reports on the front page that Senate Democratic leaders “conceded yesterday that they do not have the votes to pass the stimulus bill as currently written and said that to gain bipartisan support, they will seek to cut provisions that would not provide an immediate boost to the economy.” Moderate Republicans are “trying to trim the bill by as much as $200 billion.”

This is not really a Republican vs Democratic thing. Rather it is an east and west coast against middle American thing. Still, I am surprised that Democrats could not hold together long enough to pass this law.

Edit: If this is true, Obama may just be using the Republicans as a stick to clean up some of the junk he does not like in the bill. (h/t The Common Room)

I don't understand this

From Macro Man….

At the same time, US sovereign 5 year CDS surged 15 bps yesterday to 86 bps. To put that in perspective…..it’s where Citigroup CDS was trading exactly one year ago. Remarkably, Macro Man could only find two other countries with double-digit CDS ratings: Japan (58), Germany (59), and France (69). Was it really only a decade or so ago that Japan’s loss of a AAA rating amidst massive borrowing made waves? Now markets are essentially saying that the Japanese government (facing a massive demographic challenge) is the best creditor in the world.

CDS = Credit Default Protection.

To be honest, I don’t really understand this. As I understand it, the CDS contracts don’t cover inflation. Do people really believe that the US will default rather then inflate? I suppose it could happen.

Fear, Panic, and Chaos

We will start off easy….

The ruble slumped to its weakest level against the dollar in 11 years as investors speculated Russia will be forced to give up its currency defense after draining reserves.

One should note that Russia has not drained its reserves yet. The market is just beginning to anticipate that they will be drained. Then what?

Now it is time to panic…..

Every week it gets worse and worse and worse. Today it was Japan….

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN DATA THIS BAD FOR ANY MAJOR ECONOMY – EVEN IN THE GREAT DEPRESSION. December industrial production came in down 9.6%, worse than the METI forecast. It is now down almost 21% year over year. METI forecasts a further 4.7% decline in February. The inventory to production ratio soared again. Maybe METI will be correct.

If it is, Japan industrial production will have fallen 28% (non annualized) in four months. It will have fallen by a third in about a year. Nothing in the history of major nations compares. A 28% decline in four months would be more than half of the entire decline in U.S. industrial production over the 3 years and nine months of the U.S. Great Depression.

As far as the chaos goes, this will have to do….

Relativity minor so far, but this kind of thing is going to grow as economic problems get worse. It is going to test the EU’s ability to hold together.

As far as these particular strikes are concerned, they are going to get a lot worse in the week ahead. A story to watch.

Odds and Ends

From the New York Post…

Buried deep inside the massive spending orgy that Democrats jammed through the House this week lie five words that could drastically undo two decades of welfare reforms.

The very heart of the widely applauded Welfare Reform Act of 1996 is a cap on the amount of federal cash that can be sent to states each year for welfare payments.

But, thanks to the simple phrase slipped into the legislation, the new “stimulus” bill abolishes the limits on the amount of federal money for the so-called Emergency Fund, which ships welfare cash to states.

From The Times…..

Wildcat strikes spread to power stations across Britain today with more than 2,000 workers at 17 different sites walking out in protest against the use of foreign contractors.

Around 700 staff walked out of the Grangemouth oil refinery in Scotland and 400 more staged an unofficial strike at a refinery in Teesside as workers lent their support to a three-day strike at Total’s Lindsey oil refinery near Grimsby.

The wave of renegade strikes has also hit power stations including Longannet in Scotland, where 500 mechanical contractors have downed tools. At least 17 sites have seen strike action thus far and talks about further walkouts are ongoing at other installations, including the Sellafield nuclear plant.

From Reuters…..

Resource-poor Japan just discovered a new source of mineral wealth — sewage.

A sewage treatment facility in central Japan has recorded a higher gold yield from sludge than can be found at some of the world’s best mines. An official in Nagano prefecture, northwest of Tokyo, said the high percentage of gold found at the Suwa facility was probably due to the large number of precision equipment manufacturers in the vicinity that use the yellow metal. The facility recently recorded finding 1,890 grammes of gold per tonne of ash from incinerated sludge.

News From Pakistan And Mexico

From Bloomberg…..

The steepest decline in Mexico’s peso in 13 years blindsided everyone from UBS AG economists to Gustavo Huitron, the local marketing manager for Mercedes-Benz.

After weakening 20 percent last year, the currency fell to a record low of 14.4484 per dollar today. RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut, now predicts another 3.8 percent drop by June 30. The peso’s worst performance since 1995’s so-called Tequila Crisis is being driven by the U.S. recession and falling oil prices, which are cutting Mexican exports and government revenue.

And from pakwatan.com….

Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) is under enormous miseries, facing a shortage of 10,000 tones a day supply of fuel oil to its power producing units as the consignments of Pakistan State Oil (PSO) remained stuck up at the port.

The situation is accordingly resulting into a power shortage of about 600 MW in the system and no turn around in the situation is possible before Monday, February 2, 2009 when the PSO would get its consignments cleared at the port in Karachi.

Japan in more trouble than America

From the Times….

The depth of the downturn in Japan, the world’s second-largest economy, emerged yesterday with industrial production showing a record 9.6 per cent decline last month and unemployment up by 0.5 per cent to a three-year high of 4.4 per cent.

Output fell at its fastest pace since records began in 1953 and it was considerably worse than the 9 per cent consensus forecasts expected by the market and up from a previous record of 8.5 per cent a month earlier. It is particularly worrying for a country that relies heavily on global exports of cars, electronics and machinery.

Needless to say, this is a lot worse then what America is experiencing even if you account for the build up in inventories. An almost 10% drop in one quarter is a 40% annualized drop. I don’t really think it will keep dropping at the current rate, but even if all it did was level out that would still be a heck of drop.