A Note On Semantics

From the New York Times…

“The Chinese are probably one of the few people in the world who were sorry to see President Bush go, and are nervous about his successor,” said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution who worked on China policy for the Clinton administration.

You can’t use “few” to refer to the Chinese people. There are more then twice as many people in China as there are in Europe.

More to the point of the article, if Obama repairs relations with Europe, but America’s relations with China deteriorates, it will be a net loss for America. This is largely outside of Obama’s control regardless of what he says. So I am not trying to blame him.

But people who are celebrating the fact that America’s image is improving all around the world should take a good hard look at who is important and who is not. In the real world, some opinions matter more than others.

Pocket Change

From a Freddie Mac 8-K Filing…..

Freddie Mac (formally known as the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) is in the process of preparing its financial statements for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the year ended December 31, 2008. Based on preliminary unaudited information concerning its results for these periods, management currently estimates that the Federal Housing Finance Agency, in its capacity as conservator of Freddie Mac (Conservator), will submit a request to the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury) to draw an additional amount of approximately $30 billion to $35 billion under the $100 billion Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement (Purchase Agreement) between Freddie Mac and Treasury. The actual amount of the draw may differ materially from this estimate as Freddie Mac goes through its internal and external process for preparing and finalizing its financial statements.

The Purchase Agreement requires Treasury, upon the request of the Conservator, to provide funds to the Company after any quarter in which the Company reports a negative net worth (that is, the Company’s total liabilities exceed its total assets, as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles). The amount of the estimated additional draw described above reflects management’s current estimate of the impact of operating losses as well as other items that have a direct impact on the Company’s net worth in the fourth quarter. The Company previously drew $13.8 billion under the Purchase Agreement in November 2008, following its release of results for the third quarter of 2008. For further information, see “Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Executive Summary — Conservatorship — Entry Into Conservatorship and Treasury Agreements — Overview of Treasury Agreements” and “— Legislative and Regulatory Matters — Conservatorship and Treasury Agreements — Agreement and Related Issuance of Senior Preferred Stock and Common Stock Warrant” in Freddie Mac’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2008, filed with the SEC on November 14, 2008.

They took $13.8 billion in the third quarter and they think they are going to need 30+ billion in the fourth quarter. That is a more then 100% increase. Even if the rate of increase slows down, I don’t think the original 100 billion is going to be enough.

(h/t Calculated Risk)

Deflation not hitting food prices

From Seeking Alpha….

Prices for food in U.S. grocery stores jumped 6.6% last year – the biggest spike since 1980 – underscoring yet again that inflation is a much bigger problem than government officials, or most economists, say it will be.

Of all food categories, prices for cereal and baked goods hit U.S. consumers the hardest, zooming 11.7% in 2008 over 2007. Prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs gained 5.1%. Fruits and vegetable rose 3.4%, while dairy products advanced 2.7%.

It was the second straight year U.S. consumers were forced to pay a lot more for their groceries. In 2007, food prices at supermarkets rose 5.6%. Prices rose only 1.4% in 2006.

The article goes on to make the argument that inflation is still a problem and the government does not measure it properly.

Trickle Down Economics

From Clusterstock……

The news that Merrill Lynch paid out $15 billion in bonuses is sure to ignite new questions about the wisdom of bailing out Wall Street. Merrill Lynch took $10 billion from the TARP, allegedly to fill holes in its balance sheet. But instead of using that to repair its financial health, it simply put the money into the pockets of its employees. There is no way to defend this disgusting payout.

The media made a big deal about Republicans attempts to make the tax system less progressive. But they have been largely silent about the fact that Democrats and Republicans have united to give taxpayer money to people who are filthy rich. Personally, I would have just preferred that we make the tax system less progressive.

I would prefer rich people who are taxed at the same rate as I am to rich people who are on welfare.

Minor Pain

We are in a crisis in the western world. As a result, it seems silly to take note of the minor problems swirling around in the world. Still, it does not seem totally healthy to only pay attention to the big picture.

So here is a story about Palestinians who are made at Hamas.

Here is a story about a growing shortage of a critical industrial solvent.

Here is a story about the death of the iconic flight simulator.

Bankers in a Panic

From Market Watch…..

The bank probably needs to maintain a tangible equity ratio of 6% to 9%, he said. “It would take over $80 billion of new common equity to reach even the low end of the range, and we believe Bank of America simply is not generating sufficient capital internally in this environment to put a dent in this size capital hole.”

This is on top of all the other money already given to the Bank of America. And this is only the tip of the iceberg. Bank after bank has been posting horrendous losses. As this Calculated Risk post shows, bank stocks are getting killed. And they were already worth almost nothing. Wall Street is waking up to the fact that the banking system is insolvent and there is panic on the street.

What is really scaring people is that prime mortgage defaults have started to shoot up just when banks had thought they had worked through their sub prime losses. As more and more people lose their jobs it is only going to get worse. And if prime defaults are going up, the Agencies are really going to start needing cash. People are just beginning to see how much this is going to cost.

Edit: I forgot to add in this from the New York Times….

Stock markets had one of their worst Inauguration Day losses in more than a century, skidding more than 4 percent. Financial companies plunged more than 15 percent, their biggest one-day drop in nearly two decades, as investors worried that the troubles facing the country’s biggest banks might be larger and deeper than anyone had thought.

Even after record corporate write-downs and a $700 billion bailout to shore up the financial system, banks are still reporting huge losses, lining up for new government lifelines and cutting their profit outlooks.

The stock market drooped so much that the Dow is now below 8,000 if anyone cares about such meaningless number anymore.

From later on in the same New York Times article comes the money quote….

“At the end of the year, we saw some light at the end of the tunnel,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Company. “Unfortunately, we found out that the light at the end of the tunnel was a train.”

Gas Finally Flowing To Europe

From the Associated Press…..

Russian natural gas finally flowed into Europe once again Tuesday, after Moscow and Kiev pulled back from an energy war that drastically reduced supplies to many nations for two tough winter weeks.

But the resolution looked more like a cease-fire than a permanent peace, with no guarantee against renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, two former Soviet neighbors with sharply contrasting views of the future.

From later on in the article…..

Ukraine is to receive gas at a 20 percent discount from this year’s average European price, which Russia says is $450 per 1,000 cubic meters. That price is likely to decrease as the effect of slumping oil prices kicks in, but it still means a hike from the $179.50 Ukraine paid last year.

Russia pays the same amount as last year to ship the gas through Ukraine’s pipelines. But in 2010, both countries are to pay market prices — Ukraine for the Russian gas it uses and Russia for the transit of gas to Europe.

Any price increases will further cripple Ukraine’s inefficient economy, already badly hurt by the global financial crisis. The office of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko — Tymoshenko’s political rival — already has criticized the deal.

With the ink barely dry, Gazprom chief Alexei Miller suggested Ukraine might not be trusted to pay higher prices.

This is a complete defeat for Ukraine. But as the head of Gazprom cynically notes, it does not really matter. Ukraine is going to go broke in any case no matter what. It does not matter what they charge you when you know you can’t pay the bill.

Chrysler is giving itself away

From the Wall Street Journal….

Under terms of a pact that is being hammered out, Fiat is likely to take a 35% stake in Chrysler by the middle of this year. It would have the option of increasing that to as much as 55%, these people said.

Fiat, the stronger of the two, wouldn’t immediately put cash into Chrysler. Instead it would obtain its stake mainly in exchange for covering the cost of retooling a Chrysler plant to produce one or more Fiat models to be sold in the U.S., these people said.

In other words, Chrysler is giving itself away for practically nothing. Why is it doing this? From later on in the same article….

The pact with Fiat could give Chrysler a stronger case as it seeks more loans from the U.S. government. Chrysler nearly ran out of money late last year, before the Treasury Department provided $4 billion in emergency loans, and has suffered a steep drop in sales in the past three months. The auto maker needs to show it can remain a viable business by March to keep those loans and to qualify for the $3 billion in additional government aid it says it needs.

It shows how messed up everything is that giving yourself away to a failing Italian car company is seen as a way of increasing the chance that you will get more federal money.

Hot, cutting-edge companies

Acme Tool Co. still calls layoffs “reorganizations.” How lame. See how cool companies do it–compare two Google announcements.
Pay attention to the titles–this is CHANGE, people! Oh boy!
First engineers get changed, then People Operators (see signature) get changed. Shortchanged?
Of the two, I think I prefer the changes to the People Operators. It basically says, you’re fired, Click Here to continue reading.

A Retrospective On The Genomics Craze

From Derek Lowe….

Well. . .not as right as you’d think. The big splash of cold water, at least as I remember it, was when the Human Genome Project folks announced the total number of human genes, and it came in way below what some people had been estimating – like, ten times less. If you added up all the genes that people had claimed to have filed applications on up until then, it was well in excess of the number of genes that turned out to actually exist. This embarrassing patent excess was one problem (some of which could be explained by multiple filings by different companies), but the unexpectedly small number was the other one, and the more worrisome. How could there be so few genes when we knew there there were a lot more proteins than that? And so the importance of post-translational processes finally began to be appreciated by a wider public. It wasn’t “one gene, one protein” – it was “one gene, a bunch of proteins, and we’re not sure quite how or quite how many”.

Another set of problems came on a bit more slowly. The companies that did the whopper genomic deals came to realize that (1) even 50,000 genes was rather a lot, when you had no idea what most of them did, what pathways they fit into, what diseases they might be associated with, and what might possibly happen if you found a compound that affected their associated proteins, and (2) it didn’t look as if we were going to even get a chance to find out about that last part, because most of these things came up empty when you screened against them anyway. These were (and are) all major problems. We still have only fuzzy ideas of what a lot of genes actually do, and we still have a terrible time finding useful chemical hits against a lot of our new targets – more on these later; they’re perennial topics around here.

The whole thing is worth reading. I was happy to find out that most of those companies who rushed to patent human genes are likely to get nothing for their pains. I still think that it sets a dangerous precedent though.