From the AP….

Oil prices plunged below $56 a barrel Wednesday as awful numbers from retailers and a dismal outlook from automakers lent yet more evidence that the U.S. and the rest of the globe will slash its energy use.

This will help a lot of hurting people around the world. You may have to look for a job, but at least you will not pay $3 gallon to get around.

But lest you get too excited by this news, one should keep in mind the following facts:

1: The longer the price stays at this level, the more dependent the world is going to get on Middle Eastern oil. At $56 a barrel, many sources of oil outside the Middle East are no longer profitable.

2: The longer oil stays at this price, the more likely Russia will suffer a catastrophic collapse in the next couple of years. Granted, Russia is going to suffer a catastrophic collapse no matter what. But I was hoping that it would take at least 10 years for Russia to fall apart.

3: The longer oil stays at this price, the more unstable the Middle East is going to be. For example, Iraq is going to have a lot harder time rebuilding itself.

4: Unless there is big break through in the search for alternative energy sources, it is unlikely that oil prices will stay this low unless the world continues to suffer an economic catastrophe. Indeed, by undercutting alternatives, the current low price of oil sets the stage for a huge price increase in the future.

From Felix Salmon….

UBS has a $2 trillion balance sheet; Credit Suisse has another trillion on top of that. Call it $3 trillion between the two of them, which is about ten times Switzerland’s GDP of $300 billion or so. Now that’s what I call too big to save. Oh, and did I mention? At the end of 2007, Credit Suisse was levered by more than 40 times; UBS was levered by more than 64 times. A 16% fall in UBS’s assets would wipe out not only all of its equity but 100% of Swiss GDP on top.

This could be the first make-or-break economic issue to face Barack Obama: if it came to it, would Treasury bail out UBS? I’m sure it would try to get European governments to pitch in too, and the Swiss, of course, to the extent that they can. But I’m sure I’m not the only person praying that UBS never comes close enough to the edge that we have to find out.

I wish I could think that it was ridiculous to say that the US might bail out a foreign bank. But I can’t quite muster up the necessary optimism.

From Market Watch…

“Since mid-September, rapid, seismic changes in consumer behavior have created the most difficult climate we’ve ever seen. Best Buy simply can’t adjust fast enough to maintain our earnings momentum for this year,” said Brad Anderson, vice chairman and chief executive officer of Best Buy. “We’re beginning to adjust our cost structure to restore earnings momentum and still gain market share. We firmly believe that our strategy of customer centricity is of great value in driving our performance versus the industry, and that’s the strategy we plan to pursue to continue to strengthen our position in the marketplace.”

This is the kind of double speak that drives me nuts. They are unable to speak in straight forward manner even when everyone knows the truth.

Of course they will gain market share if they can keep from going bankrupt. That is because Circuit City went bankrupt already. The big question is can they avoid Circuit City’s fate?

They lost a lot of money this quarter.

From Bloomberg…

Fannie Mae may need more than the $100 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. Treasury to stay afloat after reporting a record $29 billion loss and confronting more difficulty in issuing and refinancing debt.

“This commitment may not be sufficient to keep us in solvent condition or from being placed into receivership,” if there are further “substantial” losses or if the company is unable to sell unsecured debt, Washington-based Fannie said in a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Fannie said it has a limited ability to issue debt maturing past one year, citing market conditions, the lack of an explicit federal guarantee and competition from government-insured bank bonds. Fannie, which along with Freddie Mac was seized by regulators on Sept. 6, slashed the value of its assets by at least $21.4 billion for the third quarter and increased credit loss reserves by 75 percent to $15.6 billion. Freddie is required to file its quarterly earnings by the end of the week.

Before long, all debt will be backed by the Federal Government.

From Injuryboard.com…

During the last nearly three decades, the number of people over the age of 65 who are hospitalized with heart failure more than doubled, representing a mounting burden on the health care system.

National Health Care system is what we are going to get. But it is going to bankrupt the whole nation.

From Reuters….

To battle sliding demand in the United States, Deutsche Post now planned to shut down its domestic U.S. express business and focus on international shipping there. It would spend $3.9 billion on restructuring, $1.9 billion more than previously planned.

The U.S. DHL unit’s full-year EBIT loss would reach $1.5 billion this year, more than the $1.3 billion previously expected.

Europe’s biggest mail and express delivery company already last month cut its full-year profit outlook for this and next year, citing slowing global economic growth, which hit especially its U.S. business.

This only has meaning for some of us. Most of us only use Fed Ex or UPS. But for those of us who were forced into using DHL for one reason or another, this is good news. They did not treat their customers well.

Once you start bailing out business how do you stop? Once they are used to cheap money how do you teach them to hustle? AIG is all over the news again. It is getting another bail out. From Bloomberg….

The U.S. Treasury will buy $40 billion in American International Group Inc. preferred shares, and the Federal Reserve will open two new emergency loan units to finance the company’s securities, the government said today.

The new terms of the government’s assistance are less costly than the Fed’s first loan to AIG on Sept. 16, a statement released in Washington said. The New York Fed gave the original loan to prevent widespread default against AIG creditors in the same week that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed.

Naked Capitalism expresses the rage of many.

From Marco Man….

Strangely, there appears to be quite a difference in opinion of how significant the package actually is. A number of the measures had been previously announced; still others represent the allocation funds that would have been spent anyways. Moreover, only a minority of the funds are coming from the central government, so the source of the remainder of the money is a trifle opaque.

They don’t really know what to do over there yet. You will know when they are seriously scared when they start selling treasuries.

Will it ever get to that point? Brad Setser makes the point that the bigger the boom the bigger the bust. And China had a big boom.

From The Wall Street Journal…

China’s government announced a two-year stimulus exceeding a half-trillion dollars to offset the impact of slowing global growth and unlock the spending power of its vast population.

Premier Wen Jiabao’s cabinet set plans for 4 trillion yuan, or $586 billion, in spending and stimulus measures through the end of 2010 aimed specifically to target people’s livelihood, the official Xinhua News Agency said Sunday night.

It was unclear how much the plan, which will target 10 areas from rural infrastructure to low-cost housing, represents new spending and how quickly it can stimulate domestic demand.

The question is, will they fund this by selling treasuries? Or will they soak up money that would have otherwise gone to private capital investment.