Pension Funds to the Rescue

From Felix Salmon….

In a nutshell, the government first guarantees all the banks’ deposits. Then the buy side — the Icelandic pension funds, which have billions of dollars in foreign securities — sell everything they own abroad, and bring it back home. At an exchange rate of 126 kronur to the dollar, that will buy them a lot of kronur. (The currency has lost fully half its value over the past year.) The banks, too, will liquidate their foreign holdings, and bring them all back home.

Mr. Salmon thinks that this is a shrewd move. But how would you like to be a pensioner in Iceland right about now? This is a trick that only works once and then what?

For more info on the current sate of Iceland see this piece in Spiegel.

China’s Low Capital Dairy Farmers

I got into a discussion the other night about China’s milk scandal. I was arguing that China’s dairy farmers were unlikely to be responsible for the contamination of the milk. As best as I understand it, China’s Dairy farm’s are all small low budget affairs. In my view, the types of people who run those farms are unlikely to have the accesses to melamine or have the kind of knowledge that it takes to understand how to use melamine to fool milk testing equipment.

This article from the New York Times strengthens my view. Especially this part….

Sanlu, which is 43 percent owned by the New Zealand-based Fonterra Group, one of the world’s largest dairy companies, controls the only milk station in Nantongyi village, giving it monopoly pricing power in the area. Every day farmers guide their cows to the village milking station, pump milk directly into the station tanks and then return home, waiting to hear how much they will earn, if their milk passes quality inspections.

In the first place this shows how poor China’s dairy farmers are. They don’t even own their own milking equipment. In the second place, it makes hard to understand how the farmers could have contaminated their own milk when they sold the milk straight from the cow to the company.

If the article is to be believed, third parity milking stations are quite common in China.

Panic In Europe

From Naked Capitalism…..

Hypo Real Estate, Germany’s second largest real estate lender, teeters on the verge of collapse. The bank has a €400 billion balance sheet, which would make for a failure of a similar scale to Lehman’s (Hypo’s footings are roughly $550 billion, while Lehman’s were $660 billion as of its last balance sheet date).

Even though Hypo it technically a bank, it is not a depositary institution, so rescuing it poses similar difficulties (procedural and political) to the authorities as Bear and Lehman did in the US. The financial system cannot take another body blow of this magnitude. The authorities had better patch this one up over the weekend, or we face even more credit market panic on Monday.

And if that weren’t an ugly enough picture, the failure to salvage Hypo has even broader ramifications. From Marshall Auerbach, independent global strategist who does consultancy for a number of funds, and sometimes financial commentator, via e-mail:

The euro is in serious trouble with this Hypo Real Estate collapse. Germans remain completely in denial. The French get it, largely because their clever finance minister, Christine LaGarde, was educated at the University of Chicago and consequently understands something about markets. Sarkozy, to his credit, appears to be listening to her. The Germans are about to destroy EMU with their pigheadedness, and this will be the stuff of revolution, given that the German people were never consulted on abandoning the DM (if there had been a referendum, the euro would have never been accepted in Germany) and were forced to get rid of arguably the most successful post-war monetary institution, the Bundesbank.

The sop thrown their way was the stupid Stability and Growth Pact, designed by former German Finance Minister, Theo Waigel. So he has hoisted the Germans and the euro zone on a German petard. And that’s made things worse! No EU wide guarantee of deposits, no EU-wide prospect of a major fiscal stimulus and bye bye euro.

Read the rest of Yves post and the comments to get the full scale of Europe’s problems.

More Problems from the States

From the New York Times….

Gov. David A. Paterson said on Friday that he would seek $2 billion in new cuts to the state’s current budget and challenged lawmakers to abandon Albany’s spending habits amid a deepening financial crisis.

And where are the cuts going to come from?

Many observers believe that when a special legislative session is convened after the election, lawmakers will be forced to cut the two largest areas of the budget, Medicaid and education. Hospitals and their workers and teachers are among the most powerful interest groups in Albany.

Also there is this from the LA Times….

Plans by several state and local governments to borrow in recent days have been upended by the credit freeze. New Mexico was forced to put off a $500-million bond sale, Massachusetts had to pull the plug halfway into a $400-million offering, and Maine is considering canceling road projects that were to be funded with bonds.

So it passed….

From Politico….

Thirty-three Democrats who opposed the measure on Monday changed their vote on Friday – Washington state Rep. Jim McDermott went the other way, switching from “yes” to “no.” They were joined by 25 Republicans – and retiring Illinois Rep. Jerry Weller, who wasn’t in town for the earlier vote.

And there was also this….

The biggest single constituency to reverse course on Friday was the Congressional Black Caucus. Thirteen CBC members changed from a “no” to a “yes,” and many of them had heard from Obama over the past few days.

Who would have thought that the black caucus would vote to give Bush sweeping powers on the advice of Obama? Who would have thought that supposedly free market Republicans would join with Democrats to enable the government to enter the market in a big way?

I am not surprised the measure passed. But the measure has sure made for strange bedfellows.

Iceland Having Problems

From Felix Salmon….

This is not how triple-A sovereigns behave. It’s as though the analysts at Moody’s were only able to see one step ahead, and not two: they could anticipate that Iceland would bail out its banks, but they couldn’t anticipate that when a tiny country bails out a bank whose assets vastly exceed the country’s own GDP, then the sovereign itself loses much creditworthiness. One scary datapoint: the assets of Kaupthing Bank amount to 623% of Iceland’s GDP, which is possibly why its own credit default swaps are trading somewhere over 2500bp.

You knew this was coming

There was is so much bad stuff in the Bloomberg article that I don’t know where to start. For starters there is this….

California, the most populous U.S. state, will run out of money by the end of this month and needs $7 billion in funding.

Naturally, the feds are being asked to cough up.

But that is not the worst of it. There is also this….

One California lawmaker said the state should consider borrowing the money from its public employee pension system, the largest such pension fund in the U.S., with $214 billion in assets.

Senator Dean Florez, a Democrat, said the California Public Employees’ Retirement System could buy all the state’s cash flow notes, earning more in interest than the system would by investing that same amount of money in U.S. Treasury notes.

Has China's milk really been contaminated with melamine?

From the Economist….

But something fishy seems to be going on here. For one thing, melamine is not all that easy to dissolve into milk. For another, there’s been a worldwide shortage of melamine for some time now. Its price has shot up to more than $1,750 per tonne from $1,100 a few years ago.

So why use an expensive industrial chemical that’s in short supply to dilute a dirt cheap product like milk? The answer can only be that either some flaw rendered the melamine industrially worthless, or it wasn’t melamine at all. The first suggestion is scary enough; the second is even more ominous.

The only thing your correspondent can imagine that would render melamine industrially worthless is if it were reclaimed waste from the production process.

Industrially, melamine is usually made by heating urea in the presence of a catalyst. Because large amounts of ammonia and carbon dioxide are given off in the process, most modern plants now combine melamine production with urea production, which uses ammonia and carbon dioxide as feedstocks. As the two processes feed off one another, a combined plant is considerably more efficient than two separate ones.

But the final stage—washing the melamine and turning it into crystal form—produces lots of effluent that needs treating before releasing into the environment. The usual way to do that is to filter the waste water and pipe that away, and then dispose of the concentrated solids separately.

Those accumulated solids are around 70% melamine, with the rest being made up of various by-products, including our old friend cyanuric acid. As mentioned before, a mixture of melamine and cyanuric acid can be a nasty witches’ brew, especially when ingested by infants.

But what if it’s not melamine that’s being used to spike China’s diluted milk? Urea may be not as rich in nitrogen, but it’s certainly a whole lot cheaper (around $650 per tonne). Sprayed into the milk at the temperature used to create a powdered product for baby food and confectionery, enough of the urea would be converted into melamine to show up in tests.

Credit crisis could disrupt American higher education

From the New York Times (h/t Naked Capitalism)…….

In a move suggesting how the credit crisis could disrupt American higher education, Wachovia Bank has limited the access of nearly 1,000 colleges to $9.3 billion the bank has held for them in a short-term investment fund, raising worries on some campuses about meeting payrolls and other obligations.

Wachovia, the North Carolina bank that agreed this week to sell its banking operations to Citigroup, has held the money in its role as trustee for a fund used by colleges and universities and managed by a Connecticut nonprofit, Commonfund.

On Monday, Wachovia announced that it would resign its role as trustee of the fund, and would limit access to the fund to 10 percent of each college’s account value. On Tuesday, Commonfund said that by selling some government bonds and other assets held in the fund, it had succeeded in raising its liquidity to 26 percent.

Still, Wachovia’s announcement sent shock waves through higher education, sending hundreds of college presidents rushing to check their financial vulnerability on every front.

Some smaller colleges that had not previously arranged lines of credit were feverishly seeking to negotiate those on Wednesday. And some large institutions said they were facing, at the least, a major financial inconvenience as a result of Wachovia’s action.