Is a month without sunspots a big deal?

Fabius Maximus writes…

Summary: Sunspot counts and other indicators of solar activity continue at low levels. The last month with zero sunspots was June 1913. August had zero spots, or one (there is some debate about this). How solar cycle 24 develops deserves to be on the list of things to watch for anyone interested in geopolitics. A “small” solar cycle — a period in which the global climate cools — would have substantial effects. Esp. with global grain inventories at such low levels. As always, links to more information are at the end of this post.

He then goes on to offer a round up of people who are discussing the issue on the Internet. (h/t Instapundit)

Welcome to the Future

From Naked Capitalism….

In other words, one of Korea’s last ditch measures to defend its currency would be to sell its remaining Freddie and Fannie debt, but the lack of liquidity argues against that.

Just like many other Asian countries, Korea built up big dollar reserves. But now that they need their dollar denominated assets, they can’t use them for fear of having to sell them at fire sale prices. I think a lot of other countries who are building up huge dollar reserves on the premise that it will safe guard them from future problems are going to find themselves in the same boat.

Its a good time to be in the construction business in China

From AFP…

At least 30 people were killed or reported missing and about 180,000 homes destroyed in a powerful earthquake in southwest China, state media said Sunday.

More than 360 people were injured in Saturday’s 6.1-magnitude earthquake, which rocked Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing the civil affairs ministry.

Granted this is not as big as last time. And 180,000 homes destroyed is not much in a country with over a billion people in it. But a couple of more earthquakes and and China’s construction industry is going to have a hard time keeping up with the rebuilding and the demands of China’s growing economy.

Coming Soon To A County Near You

From Businesses Week (h/t Calculated Risk)….

A decision not to make the interest payment would place the county in default and put it one step closer to filing bankruptcy over a $3.2 billion bill linked to years of court-ordered sewer improvements and risky credit arrangements.

Such a move would nearly double the previous record for a municipal bankruptcy, set in 1994 when Orange County, Calif., sought protection over $1.64 billion in debts.

And why did Jefferson County take on such a large debt?

Jefferson County got into trouble after it was forced by the courts to undertake a huge upgrade of its sewage system to meet federal water standards and stop raw and partially treated waste from being dumped into streams.

Acting at the suggestion of outside advisers, the county borrowed money for the project on the bond market in a complex and risky series of transactions. When the mortgage crisis hit and banks began tightening up on their lending, the interest rates on the debt ballooned.

The nearly completed sewer project has been under construction since 1996.

New Orleans to get hit again?

It looks like New Orleans may get hit by a major hurricane again. On the plus side, the majority of the oil rigs may be missed. Oil Drum has constant up dates.

Edit: More from Calculated Risk…..

We’re already seeing gas prices get hit. Shell Oil said it will pull all workers off platforms, along with nearly every other producer. More importantly, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port will halt taking crude this weekend; it’s the only deepwater oil port in the nation.

Nuts.

Lies or incompetence?

The official bean counters say that GDP grew by 3.3% in the second quarter. Naked Capitalism argues that this is the result of lies. I say it is the result of incompetence. Unlike Yves, I don’t find it hard to believe that the government can not keep track of its expenditures in very well.

Also, it has been known for a while that the government is not properly accounting for inflation. This is long standing I don’t think you can say that it is being done by one administration for political reasons.Since inflation picked up sharply in the second quarter, it stands to reason that this distorted the statistics by more then usual. I don’t think we need to hint that somebody went out there way to manipulate the statistics.

Generals, Macro Man, and the Need for Courage

The difference between a good general and a bad general is simple. A good general wants to win; a bad general wants to avoid losing. Things like charisma, Intelligence, or training are of only minor importance.
Nothing demonstrates this better then the Civil War. George McClellan and Robert Lee had both graduated second in their class Click Here to continue reading.

This is why so few construction jobs have been lost

One of the great puzzles of our current economic troubles is how come construction employment has held up so well. The answer is simple. There is such a shortage of skilled tradesmen that a slow down just means that some of them finally get to work a 40 hour week. That means they are making less money then they where before, but they are still employed.

From EC&M Web….

According to survey respondents, contractors are devising a variety of strategies to overcome the shortfalls. Almost half the respondents reported a weekly work schedule of more than 40 hours. Two-thirds reported working their crews five days every week, and some schedules of 70 or more hours per week were reported.

The corollary to this that most of construction done recently is crap. There was not enough good people to do all the work being done even if the all the constructions companies had wanted to do good work. When people get done being outrage by all the obvious financial fraud that paid for boom, they are going to find that things were not done to any higher ethical standard on the bricks and motor end.

Olive Garden having problems

For those who care....

A surprise warning on earnings by Darden Restaurants Inc. suggests that sit-down restaurants will continue struggling through the fall after a dismal summer.

On Tuesday, the parent of Olive Garden and Red Lobster said its earnings for the fiscal first quarter ended Aug. 24 would be below Wall Street’s expectations, and lowered its profit forecast for the year ending May 31.