Wall Street Journal has a story from a reporter who accompanied officials from the FDIC when they went to shut down a bank. The article is short on information, but the subject is so important that I recommend reading it anyway. A bank near you is going to fail soon, and it is worth knowing how the system operates. Sometimes you can learn things even from fluff articles. Take this qoute from the article for example….

It isn’t easy for 75 federal officials and contractors to slip into a small town undetected and liquidate an 89-year-old bank without anyone knowing. But that’s what just happened in this old railroad town, population 3,200. It’s a scene that’s likely to repeat itself across the country as banks struggle through a painful credit cycle, overwhelmed by troubled mortgages and soured construction loans.

First Integrity, which had two branches and $55 million in assets, was the fourth FDIC-insured bank to fail this year.

Now think about this. If it takes 75 people to handle the shut down of one teeny bank, how is the FDIC going to handle the all bank failures coming down the pike?

To be fair, the FDIC is aware of this problem and they are trying to gear up. Still, you have to wonder if they will have enough people.

h/t Calculated Risk

A noble prize for a useless theory is a commonplace occurrence in economics field. This rant laments that fact.

From Survival Blog….

I have been selling tuna for about 20 years and over the last two years, have seen the raw material prices double. Normally, prices go up and then back down, as the catch decreases and then increases. However, since there are really no controls on the amount of tuna that are caught, I have been concerned about over fishing, especially with skipjack as it is the every day item that supermarkets sell as chunk light tuna. Given that the frozen fish price has increased from about $1,000 per metric ton to just under $2,000 per metric ton, I think that we may
have hit the point where demand will outpace a diminishing supply. I expect retail prices to continue increasing.

Read the whole post

This week’s essay is Understanding Crude Oil Prices by James D. Hamilton. Don’t be afraid to stretch your brain and don’t be afraid of the math. You need the mental exercise.

Calculated Risk has a chart comparing the year over year change in miles driven vs. the price of gas. For good measure he has marked out the various recessions. Well worth a look.

The original plan was for me to fly out of state to my boss’ headquarters and spend as much time as I needed learning the ins and outs of how his home-based department operated so that I can work in tandem with them in my remote location. One of the key items on the agenda Click Here to continue reading.

From Megan McArdle…..

If you want to know just how ridiculous our agricultural programs are, consider this: for about half a century, we priced milk based on how far the cow was from Eau Claire, Wisconsin. No, I swear, I am not making this up. Apparently, the USDA scientifically determined that Eau Claire was the perfectest place in the entire world to keep cows, and that therefore the farther you were from that fabled city, the harder you must find it to produce milk.

One of the overlaps between my old job duties and my new duties is monitoring an effort to improve our service to a key customer. As with a similar initiative about a year ago, I am frustrated with merely noting the problems we are having. I don’t think using extraordinary focus to compensate for systemic Click Here to continue reading.

From Winter Watch….

Freddie Mac issued its quarterly “report” and gave clues as to how to paint lipstick on pigs and actually get away with it. The trick is to put $157 billion (from $32 billion before) over to Level 3, where absolutely no haircut is then reported. Readers may recall that Level 3 essentially allows the reporter to make up their own prices separate from market prices. In the case of Freddie, management has determined that “market prices don’t make any sense”, hence the move. This writer would argue that the quasi-official institutions like the GSE and foreign central banks themselves are creating massively distorted Soviet Union style prices that if anything makes even the market prices that Freddie dismisses too high.

From Macro Man (Click on link for graphs)……

Regular readers will recall that when the Fed cut 50 bps in September, Macro Man opined that the dollar was toast. When BB and co. slashed rates by 75bps when the stock market got Kerviel’ed, it seemed like they were hitting the panic button. And what’s happened since then? Median one year inflation expectations have rocketed from 3.1% to 5.2%. Sadly, Bloomberg doesn’t have historical data for average 12 month inflation expectations; those are now a resounding 7%!!! It seems as if not everyone is living in the Fed’s hedonically and seasonally adjusted, core goods world.

The rise in inflation expectations is all the more remarkable when put into historical context; they are now the highest since February 1982. Now, just because you expect higher inflation and demand higher wages doesn’t mean you’ll get ’em, especially in the context of an incipient recession. But with the balance of probability favouring a Democratic sweep come November, what odds that there emerges a legislative response to the juxtaposition of near-record corporate profits as a % of GDP along with stagnant/negative real wage growth?

From the Daily Rap via Calculated Risk……

The truth is their data is wrong. The market has, obviously, taken the view that the worst of the writedowns are behind us, and if anything it’s now just a macroeconomic problem we face. I think that’s dead wrong. We’re now entering the phase where the macro impacts earnings, but also the stage where real cash losses start to hit the banks (subprime and Alt-A is primarily a mark-to-market issue, but HELOCs are going to be large, outright losses). Once WAMU, WFC, BAC and JPM start to get data through on how rapidly their HELOC portfolios are deteriorating, watch the losses pile up. I’m talking realised losses, not mark-to-market writedowns.”