A cool map of foreclosures

This map of foreclosures is the best thing since sliced bread once you figure out how to navigate it. It starts off showing you a color coded map of the US showing which parts of the country are having the most problems with real estate foreclosures. But you can pick what ever part of country you want and zoom in on it. You can zoom all the way down to the township level and the map will still be color coded. I had expected it to stop at the county level.

Plus, you can see all the individual house that are in foreclosure if you zoom in fare enough.

New York State's plan to balance the the Budget

From the Associated Press we learn that New York State is facing some fiscal problems this year. As the article says…..

A national recession that’s all but declared, layoffs and losses on Wall Street that provide 20 percent of state revenues, and declining revenue from income, sales and other taxes tied to the economy.

Yet the proposed state budget, due Tuesday and being detailed this weekend, calls for about a 4.5 percent increase in spending, perhaps even a bit higher. And one of the biggest pieces _ state school aid _ will still be a whopper: A record $1.8 billion increase for state school aid already at about $20 billion, which includes among the highest per-pupil funding in the nation

So how is New York State going to balance the books? By increasing the taxes on the poor and and the cooperations that provided jobs. The article from the Associated Press spells this out pretty clearly. First off there is the doubling of the cigarette taxes. As the Associated Press article says…

Smokers face up to a $1.50 per pack increase in the cigarette tax. The state tax is already $1.50 per pack and, in New York City because of an additional local tax, it’s $4.50 a pack.

How many rich people do you know that smoke? More to point, how stupid do you think New Yorkers who smoke are? Even if you live so far from a state border that you can not easily cross the border to get you smokes, you can easily pay for a long distance trip to get smokes by brining back enough for your buddies.

But taxing those evil smokers who have no rights is not the only way that New York intends to raise revenue. The state is also looking to increase liquor taxes and raise its lottery income. From the same Associated Press article…..

Add to that other “revenue raisers” still on the table surrounded by lawmakers desperate for cash: Expanding the hours of the Quick Draw lottery game sometimes called “video crack”; redefining some malt beverages to light liquor and little cigars into cigarettes to snag higher tax rates; and countless other increases to user fees.

You got to love New York State. They make laws to protect stupid people from themselves, like mandating that everyone wears helmets when they are riding bikes and then turn around and taxes people who don’t understand mathematical odds. I guess the assumption is that if you are stupid enough to get addicted to quick draw you are too dumb to vote.

Who would have thought that a state as liberal as New York would embrace the soak the poor philosophy so eagerly? But of course, this being New York, it is not just about soaking the poor. It is also about driving away business to other states. Again, from the Associated Press story…..

For some of New York’s businesses, the cost of hard times in Albany could be measured in the millions. That’s because “loophole closers” were still on the table Saturday.

Now I am all for closing loop holes. I think all taxes should be straight forward and hard to game. But the only way I would support closing loopholes for New York State businesses is if overall tax rate that businesses had to pay was lowered. Businesses are already leaving Upstate New York like rats leaving a sinking ship. I don’t see the point of encouraging them.

There is more that I could go about. But the basic point is that it is absurd to raising taxes just as the state is going into recession. Especially when the state is still planing on having across the board spending increases.

Three articles worth reading

Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up points us to the most important news story that you did not read this week.

From National Review comes a story of a Coptic priest who is rumored to have a 5 million dollar bounty on his head.

And from Washington Post comes the story of how a big chain decided to try to buy pig meat from Joel Salatin and all the work they had to go through to make that work.

Essay of the Week: 3/16/08-3/22/08

It was not what we wanted to post for essay of the week, but sometimes you have to give way to current events. As everyone who has not been living under a rock knows, the major story of the week is the dramatic collapse of Bear Stearns. Since it is likely to heavily influence the news next week, we have decided to make this essay from Naked Capitalism essay of the week.

We do this with reluctance. Naked Capitalism has the best overview of the types of problems that are bound up in the Bear Stearns collapse, but we really think this issue has been overhyped. This problem will not end the world as we know it no matter what the traders on Wall Street think. As long as China, Japan, and Brazil are willing to buy treasuries at almost any price, then the US government will have plenty of money to throw at any problem. When you see a sharp rise in the interest rates on treasury bonds, then you can start screaming if you are so inclined. Until then save your breath.

Don’t get us wrong. The Bear Stearns collapse is not good news. But the thing that has kept this crazy house of cards afloat has been the fact that the US Federal Government has been able to pay historically low real interest rates on its debt even as it was running a record current account deficit and spending money on guns and butter like there was no tomorrow. Until that stops, things will still be reasonably all right in the US.

For that reason, a case could be made that it would be better to select this piece from Econbrowser on the TSLF, this piece from Brad Setser on central bank intervention, or this piece from Demography Matters on China’s inflation and labor shortages. All three of those essays talk about issues that will still be important next year when everyone will have already forgotten about Bear Stearns and are freaking out about other issues.

But since we live in the now, and not in the future, and since most people don’t have the time to read more than one essay in their spare time, it seems best to encourage people read Naked Capitalisms take on the issues raised by Bear Stearns collapse so that people know what the issues are.

Traders are so cute when they get scared

From Reuters….

“You can safely assume that Bear is not alone here,” said an interest rate strategist at one European investment bank in London, who declined to be identified.

“We have been setting prices in swaps markets in recent days that were designed to say ‘no deal’ and at least one other U.S. investment bank — not Bear — dealt. That is very worrying if they needed the cash that badly. We have been forced to review our counterparty limits ever since.”

From the Independent……

A Goldman Sachs trader in New York said: “Everyone is in a total state of shock, aghast at what is happening. No one wants to talk, let alone deal; we’re just standing by waiting. Everyone is nervous about what is going to emerge when trading starts tomorrow.”

In the UK, Michael Taylor, a senior market strategist at Lombard, the economics consultancy, said on Friday night: “We have all been talking about a 1970s-style crisis but as each day goes by this looks more like the 1930s. No one has any clue as to where this is going to end; it’s a self-feeding disaster.” Mr Taylor, who had been relatively optimistic, has turned bearish: “It really does look as though the UK is now heading for a recession. The credit-crunch means that even if the Bank of England cuts rates again, the banks are in such a bad way they are unlikely to pass cuts on.”

Mr Taylor added that he expects a sharp downturn in the real UK economy as the public and companies stop borrowing. “We have never seen anything like this before. This is new territory for us. Liquidity is being pumped into the system but the banks are not taking any notice. This is all about confidence. The more the central banks do, the more the banks seem to ignore what’s going on.”

Mr Taylor added that the problems unravelling at Bear Stearns are just the beginning: “There will be more banks and hedge funds heading for collapse.”

Rescuing the Bear….

Every one got scared today because it came out that Bear Stearns was in danger of going under. But the fed rode to the rescue. Felix Salmon tries to justify the bail out….

While I have a certain amount of sympathy for this tough-love approach to the banking system, in the end I’m quite glad that Ben Bernanke and Tim Geither, softies that they are, went down the route that they did. Not because I think Bear’s shareholders deserve their $30 per share or whatever they’re going to end up receiving, but rather because of the sheer amount of wealth that could have been wiped off the stock and bond markets as a result.

It turns out, you see, that every mom-and-pop stock-market investor is actually, and rather unwittingly, taking investment-bank default risk, then. Which is why it’s nice to have a Fed on the lookout for them. So far, retail stock-market investors haven’t panicked; let’s try and keep it that way, shall we?

But for my money, I think the Naked Capitalism has the right take….

Bear is a large prime broker, which means it lends to hedge funds. It is also a significant counterparty in enough different credit markets that its collapse would have at a minimum caused panic as to who might have been hurt. You’d have a further scramble for liquidity and reluctance to lend, which is precisely the condition the Fed has been trying to alleviate.

In particular, according to Bloomberg, Bear was the second largest underwriter of mortgage bonds, The lead manager (I’m assuming Bear was also a significant lead manager) is the only one who knows where the bonds went and is thus in the best position to trade them. So Bear’s role as an important market-maker may have played into the calculus.

But the answer to the question of whether Bear should have been allowed to tank depends on how long it would take the crisis to pass. Swap spreads were elevated a full year after the LTCM rescue, but here the relevant metric would be how long the acute phase might take. If it was two weeks or a month, and no one save maybe some middling sized hedge funds (or a lot of teeny ones) would fail, that would have been acceptable. But the Fed couldn’t assess this in a 24 hour period. (However, some parties believe that the Fed’s $200 million TLSF was in part to assist Bear; if so, they’ve had at least a week to evaluate this risk. But in that case, I’m not certain they asked the right questions).

I still think Bear should have been permitted to fail. Now every the same size or larger knows the Fed will ride into the rescue. This is a terrible precedent. It also increases the odds of the Fed running out of firepower long before the crisis is over.

Even with the rescue, markets still dropped today.