Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 10, 2024

Zelenskyy’s new top commander has a reputation as a ‘butcher’

Ukraine Attacks Russian Oil Refineries With Drones

Directly beneath UNRWA’s Gaza headquarters, IDF uncovers top secret Hamas data center

Hindu Group Threatens Christian Schools to Remove Religious Symbols or ‘Face Dire Outcome’

In the jaws of a lion: How Kenyan couple survived vicious attack

Emergency rooms are not okay

Americans Should Be Less Complacent About Social Security

Mark Steyn ordered to pay $1 million to deter climate deniers from criticizing sacred scientists

Should the US Navy Protect All Commerce?

The below video is full of good information if you have time to listen to it (even though it is a video, you will not miss much by just listening). But in my opinion, it fails to address the complexity of this topic in a realistic way even though all the background information is good. The bottom line is that it is easy for any redneck to give the right answer to the above question. It is harder for people regardless of their education to understand and articulate the costs of that answer.

The root of the problem is that US economy is deeply intertwined with the world wide economy. When a ship got stuck in the Suez canal, the resulting supply chain disruptions were felt by factories in small town America. And that was true even though the issue was resolved relatively quickly and it was mostly non-US ships that were impacted. By the same token, it don’t matter who owns the ships or what they have on them, if the Houthi are impacting shipping, the US is going to feel the pain same as everyone else.

Moreover, these things don’t happen in a vacuum. Some people on the left thinks that this is only happening because of the Israeli conflict and if that goes away this will go away. But once you let something like this go unchallenged, why should other people who care about other topics or even just want to make money not try the same thing? If the Houthi get away with doing this with very little costs, it will encourage others with different goals and locations to do the same thing. In the end, failing to stop the Houthi will very quickly (over a period of years to be sure but that is quickly in my book) move us to the law of the jungle ruling the sea and resulting high costs for world trade.

But the problem is, America is the only nation in the West that is has any plausible ability to deal with this threat. Other nations could solve this problem if they made it a national priority and built up their forces over a period of years but right here and right now America is the only one who can plausible shut the Houthis down (that fact that America has failed to do that has more to do with America being unwilling to do things like massive bombing of population centers then any lack of ability).

This is one thing that video below fails to address. It is true as the video says that historically American has only protected American shipping. But what the video fails to address is that historically lots of other nations were more then capable of protecting their own shipping but no longer can. Even as recently as the 1980s, other nations had navies that enabled them to project power effectively (see the UK and Falklands although that was on the very edge of what they could handle). But it is no longer the case anymore and has not been the case for at least 20 years. This means that the safety of the Western World’s economic lifelines is almost entirely in US hands. Other nations can contribute a ship or two, but they can’t sustain the projection of power needed to deal with things like the Houthi on their own. And it does not matter if some abstract notion of fairness says that other nations should protect their shipping. The fact is that they can’t and US will pay the price for their inability along with everyone else.

This is what drives the Biden administration towards conflict with the Houthi. I don’t think they really want a war and if they do want a war the they are sure going about it in a half ass way. But almost any president or possible future president you can think of would do the same thing. They might do it more competently. They might do it with more gusto. Or they might be even more reluctant. But in the end, most of them would come to the same place because they know the voters don’t want another war in the Middle East and they know the voters will blame them for any economic problems resulting from trade disruption. So the incentive from the American voters themselves is to try to find some kind of half measure that squares the circle. It is hard for democracies to produce leaders capable of making effective hard choices because a hard choice is one that voters are not going to like either way.

In the long run, it don’t matter. Based on current trajectories of the US debt, American will soon be forced to stop funding a Navy that can handle such threats. Sooner or later the law of jungle will come to the seas. The demographic forces that are leading to the demise of the modern world will ensure that nobody is able to pick up the mantle when the US is forced to give it up. That is why on a practical level I think the redneck answer is right all along. Shipping disruptions are coming no matter what. The US will not be able to support the burden of keeping the world order from collapsing for very much longer no matter what. So we might as well start the adaption process sooner rather then later. The Houthi might be doing us a favor to help ease us along on the adaption process to what is going to come anyway.

But it bugs me nonetheless to see the issue addressed solely in terms of legalese or fairness with out an honest reflection on the real costs involved. It is a lot easier to blame Biden then it is to contemplate the nature of the systems that produce people like Biden and guide them towards the choices they make. It is a lot easier to say that “we should not be fighting the Houthi” then it is to say, “we should not be fighting the Houthi even if it means 10% inflation and the occasional empty shelves in the stores.” So most people go down the road of imagining that their preferred course of action has no real cost associated with it.

Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 9, 2024

How Ukraine’s top general ran out of road both in Kyiv and in Washington

Ukraine Lawmakers Advance Key Mobilization Bill

From a pro Russian point of view. Tucker Carlson Interview of Vladimir Putin

An anti-Putin Russian point of view. Kremlin insiders explain key takeaways from Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin

Beyond the Frontline: Ukrainian Forces Targeting Russian Assets in Sudan

Israel attempts to assassinate two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders in south Lebanon

Moody’s lowers Israeli credit rating, downgrades outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’

Shipping Bosses Warn Maritime Security in the Red Sea Getting Worse, Not Better

Venezuela Deploys Tanks, Armored Carriers To Guyana Border

Farmers win: Major EU backdown on farming emissions and regulations

Special counsel report specifically cites Biden’s age and poor memory as a reason he wasn’t charged

Stellar 30Y Auction Sees Surge In Foreign Demand, Biggest Stop Through In 13 Months

How a historic neighborhood became ‘ground zero’ for the Maui wildfire

Getting rid of bed bugs is trickier than ever

Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 7, 2024

Wreckage found in Russia reveals the existence of what appears to be the latest Ukrainian long-range one-way attack drone.

Senate Republicans defeat bipartisan border deal, but Ukraine, Israel aid may survive

A Thorn in Tehran’s Side: Afghanistan’s Multifaceted Threat to Iranian Security

Rank-And-File Border Patrol Agents Livid Over Senate Funding Deal

Hochul Sparks Outcry With Proposed Cash Transfer From Legal Aid Fund

Stop Allowing Noncitizens to Determine Congressional and Presidential Representation

Disney invests $1.5B in Epic Games, plans new “games and entertainment universe”

AUTOMATION DOES NOT LEAD TO LEANER LAND FORCES

The Kale Controversy

Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 5, 2024

As Navies Focus On Red Sea Houthis, Somali Pirates Are Making A Comeback

How Tehran is Changing the Nature of Asymmetric Warfare

The additional details about how Saudi Patriots responded to the 2019 attack show the level of strain that a larger number of even lower-end ballistic missiles can place on friendly air and missile defenses. As is the case in the U.S. military and many other armed forces around the world, the standard operating procedure for RSAF Patriot batteries is reportedly to fire at least two missiles at each incoming threat. So if six Houthi missiles were downed in 2019, the Saudis likely fired at least 12 Patriots. The current cost of a single PAC-3 MSE missile, the most advanced interceptor for the Patriot system currently, is nearly $5.3 million

In the year since a major earthquake hit Syria, the situation has deteriorated. and A year on from Turkey’s earthquake, devastation continues

The fastest-growing countries for software development, according to GitHub

Kyrgyzstan Faces Heating Crisis After Power Plant Accident

Chinese Nationals Fastest Growing Group of Border Crossers

A puzzling illness paralyzed US kids every other year—until it didn’t

Alzheimer’s may have once spread from person to person, but the risk of that happening today is incredibly low

Preach it 🙂 New Study Links Optimism To Lower Cognitive Abilities The flip side that we don’t like to talk about is that intelligence is linked to higher rates of mental illness. To put it bluntly, dumb people might be optimists but smart people are crazy.

Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 4, 2024

Russia’s Oil Industry Threatened by Ukrainian Drones

One thing I thought Russia would be successful at would be to shut down Ukraine’s seaborn trade. But they are almost back to prewar levels. Ukraine Farm Exports From Odesa Seaports 14.3M Tons Since August

Northern Ireland has appointed Michelle O’Neill as the first Irish nationalist leader in its history after an agreement with pro-UK unionists.

China is Censoring Bad News About Its Economy

Over 2 percent of the US’s electricity generation now goes to bitcoin

Antifungal Creams Could Be Triggering a Wave of Superfungal Skin Infections

America Hasn’t Seen Syphilis Numbers This High Since 1950

Correlation problem: How do you know it is not just lack of sleep? Warning Issued After Researchers Link Energy Drinks To Suicidal Thoughts In Children

Differential peripheral immune signatures elicited by vegan versus ketogenic diets in humans

Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 3, 2024

Russian oil refinery catches fire after overnight drone attack

As the U.S. determines what effect 85 strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria had, there were new attacks against Houthi targets in Yemen.

Did Drug Traffickers Funnel Millions of Dollars to Mexican President López Obrador’s First Campaign?

US Cattle Herd Shrinks to 73-Year-Low in Blow for Beef Lovers

California Bill Would Give Unemployment Benefits To Illegal Immigrants

Google will no longer back up the Internet: Cached webpages are dead