For Real?

From the Washington Times….

An al Qaeda affiliate in Algeria closed a base earlier this month after an experiment with unconventional weapons went awry, a senior U.S. intelligence official said Monday.

The official, who spoke on the condition he not be named because of the sensitive nature of the issue, said he could not confirm press reports that the accident killed at least 40 al Qaeda operatives, but he said the mishap led the militant group to shut down a base in the mountains of Tizi Ouzou province in eastern Algeria.

He said authorities in the first week of January intercepted an urgent communication between the leadership of al Qaeda in the Land of the Maghreb (AQIM) and al Qaeda’s leadership in the tribal region of Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan. The communication suggested that an area sealed to prevent leakage of a biological or chemical substance had been breached, according to the official.

Point and Counter Point

Over at Abu Muqawama’s blog, Abu Muqawama and Gian Gentile got into a little argument over whether the army is becoming so involved in counterinsurgency that it is losing its ability to fight real wars. They also have differences on whether current counter insurgency doctrine is all that it is cracked up to be or not.

The real meat of the discussion took place in the comment section because Abu Muqawama comment section has been doing most of the heavy lifting lately.

Originally, I was not going to link to this argument because it is rather nerdy and I did not think anyone other than myself would be interested. But towards the end of the discussion a new commentator joined the fray who calls himself Looking Glass. I think his words are worth reading even for people who only have a general interest in what is going on over in Afghanistan.

If you don’t have time to read the whole thread, you can read what Looking Glass said here, here, and here.

The talk is jargon heavy, but it is based on real experience as Looking Glass’s last comment makes clear. More importantly, it is well argued.

I certainly had more sympathy for Gian Gentile’s viewpoint before reading Looking Glass’s comments than I do now. More to the point, I think I have a better appreciation for what is going wrong in Afghanistan. Especially after reading Looking Glass’s last comment.

Is it over for now?

From Abu Muqawama….

Unlike in 2006, when the post-war talk all centered around Hizballah’s performance and the IDF’s poor showing, the talk this time around is about the ethics of Israel’s assault and the way in which the operation was conducted. The good news from Israel’s perspective is that even the most hardened Hamas supporter would have a very tough time declaring victory. It appears as if even the best units from Hamas were rolled up with little difficulty, and though I am not in favor of using body counts to gauge operational excellence, it has to be said that Israel inflicted a lot of pain on Hamas with very few casualties of their own.

I don’t know if this is really over yet. I wonder if Israel’s unilateral ceasefire had something to do with an upcoming change in administration in America. They may have felt like they had a deadline to meet. Now if Hamas starts firing again, they can tell Obama they would have liked to have stopped but Hamas would not let them.

Why not let children join too?

From the Telegraph……

The ban on disabled people joining the army should be scrapped, according to Britain’s human rights watchdog.

The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has told the Ministry of Defence that the current ban is descriminatory and that all three armed forces should allow disabled people to serve.

But defence chiefs and government ministers are opposing any moves to relax the rules, saying recruiting disabled people would impact on morale, operational effectiveness and would create a two-tier military organisation.

The EHRC has written to the MoD to demand that it meet the requirements of the UN Convention on the Rights of a Person with Disabilities, which Britain has signed.

Russia's Plan To Destroy Ukraine

This came via RussiaToday, which is a propaganda arm of the Russian Government (sort of like voice of America except more effective)

The claim about the proposed American backed pipeline having no gas to ship is wrong. Certainly those countries are currently selling their gas to Russia and China, but that is because they have no other way of getting it to market. There is nothing in their contracts that would make those countries keep on selling the gas to Russia and China once they had alternatives. Moreover, if that pipeline were to be built, lots of western companies would come in and find new sources of gas.

The real issue for the proposed American backed pipeline is who has the will and capability to defend should it be built. Furthermore, it is questionable if any of the proposed pipelines can be built in the current economic climate. Who is going to fund them when everybody is worried about keeping their banking systems intact? That is Ukraine’s only prayer in this contest.

In the long term, this is all a non-issue. The real issue is the continuing implosion of all Slavic societies. Spats such as this one will only accelerate that implosion.

This is what I love about the DEC

From the Press Connects……

A major sticking point for the DEC was the threshold used to determine if inflow (water coming into the system from above ground) or infiltration (groundwater) is excessive. The report uses a threshold established in Massachusetts because New York has no established standards, explained John Lagorga, a consultant with Stearns & Wheler who is overseeing the flow management evaluation.

DEC Engineer James Burke said it would take about a week to determine if the Massachusetts threshold is acceptable or if new standards were required.

Got that? Their was no standard mandated by law. So they tried to use another State’s standard. But that still might be found in noncompliance. The DEC just has not made up its mind yet. You are guilty until proven innocent.

There is no reward for virtue in this life

From the El Paso Times…..

Mexico is one of two countries that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,” according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command’s “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

In many ways, Mexico has it worse than Pakistan. Lots of low level types die every day in Pakistan. But most of the elites are never touched because they play a double game. When Pakistan is forced to admit that someone of high level is working with the “bad guys” they put them under house arrest and let them do what they please. In return, the militants rarely kill anyone important in Pakistan.

In contrast, a lot of high level people in Mexico have either been killed (because they did not work with the bad guys) or had to face real jail time (because the government found out that they were working for the bad guys). Both of these things are largely unheard of in Pakistan. This is largely because Mexico is trying to destroy the destabilizing elements with in the country where as Pakistan is trying to get along with its destabilizing elements.

The disgusting thing is that the US is giving far more money to Pakistan (who is not really trying) then it is to Mexico (who are making an honest effort). At least there is a chance that Mexico can be saved. No such chance exists for Pakistan.

And least you think that we can deal with any collapse of Mexico by the simple expedient of sealing our border, remember this: A lot of our oil comes from Mexico, and it will not easily be replaced.

New Yorkers want out worse that Californians

From The Associated Press…..

The number of people leaving California for another state outstripped the number moving in from another state during the year ending on July 1, 2008. California lost a net total of 144,000 people during that period — more than any other state, according to census estimates. That is about equal to the population of Syracuse, N.Y.

The state with the next-highest net loss through migration between states was New York, which lost just over 126,000 residents.

Since New York has a much smaller population than California, this means that New York is losing more people in percentage terms than California.