What is the difference between a riot and an insurrection?

France is having trouble with rioters again. But this time it is different……

In one sense, the unrest seems to be more menacing than during the early days of the three weeks of rioting in 2005. Then, the youth seemed disorganized, their destruction largely caused by rock-throwing and arson and aimed at the closest and easiest targets, like cars. This time, hunting shotguns, as well as gasoline bombs and rocks, have been turned on the police.

“From what our colleagues on the scene tell us, this is a situation that is a lot worse than what we saw in 2005,” Patrice Ribeiro, a police officer and senior union official, told RTL radio Tuesday. He added, “A line was crossed last night, that is to say, they used weapons, they used weapons and fired on the police. This is a real guerrilla war.”

Ribeiro warned that the police, who have struggled to avoid excessive force, would not be fired upon indefinitely without responding.

More than 80 police officers already have been wounded the clashes, several of them seriously, Ribeiro said later by telephone. Thirty of them were hit with pellets from shotguns, and one of the wounded was hit with a type of bullet used to kill large game, he added. It is legal to own a shotgun in France – as long as the owner has a license – and police circles were swirling with rumors that the bands of youth were procuring more shotguns.

Here is a news clip from the early days of the rioting…

Here is more footage of the early rioting…

This is from the second day. Anti-France in its view point.

To be fair to the French, this time the riots did not last long. This from CNN…..

French suburbs stayed relatively calm Wednesday night after 1,000 riot police were deployed to quell disturbances that began when two teenagers died in a collision with a police car, French officials said.

Wednesday was the fourth night of unrest that on prior nights resulted in violent clashes between angry youths and police, and the burning of buildings and cars from the Paris suburbs to the southern city of Toulouse.

No injuries to police were reported, Laurente Wittek, a spokeswoman for the Interior Ministry, told CNN. She said Thursday that there had been a “clear reduction” in the rioting.

Meanwhile, French President Nicolas Sarkozy vowed to punish those responsible for shooting at police. Sarkozy met Wednesday with the families of the youths on the motorcycle who were killed.

The worst bouts of violence were Monday and Tuesday nights, when police made arrests in the northern Paris suburb of Villiers-le-Bel, where the collision occurred.

Nonetheless, this riot still seems to have marked a new high point for anti-state rioting in France. If this trend continues, will the French police still be willing to handle the problem? Or will they turn it over to the army?

Interesting article on swat valley

When a nuclear armed state is descending into anarchy, you ought to keep tabs on it. But you don’t read much about Pakistan in the mainstream press. To help rectify that, we bring you this article from From Spiegel….

With its anarchy and lawlessness, the Swat Valley has come to symbolize Pakistan in the year 2007. This time it’s not about the tribal areas, such as Waziristan along the Afghan border, where radical Islamists have been successfully undermining the power of the state. The Swat Valley is just a few hours drive from Islamabad. And Mullah Fazlullah’s jihad is directed at Musharraf’s regime. He and his fighters want to see a strict Islamist state, that is not oriented towards the US but to Sharia law. It is an enemy in the heart of the country — one that Musharraf seems increasingly incapable of dealing with.

This explains everything that is wrong with America

You think you understand how stupid people can be, and then something comes along that blows your mind. How in the world can you come up with a fair test to distinguishing the sane from the insane? This is just nuts….

With drought conditions reigning across much of the South and communities restricting water use, a resident in North Carolina took the extreme measure of drilling a new private well for the sole purpose of watering his lawn. The well cost $3,000 for homeowner Jorge Pericchi, but he said it was worth the expense. A local well driller states that his company has installed dozens of wells since the drought began. While state laws don’t normally restrict the use of private wells, some state officials are concerned the private well boom will draw down the water table for everyone.

Essay of the Week: 11/11/07-11/17/07

It is Veterans Day, so it only seems fitting to select an essay relating to what is going on over in Iraq. To me, this essay from the Army of Dude captures confusion of the current war in Iraq. Just as Alex and his friends were shooting at enemies they could not see, the US as whole does not understand who they are fighting. We do not know what the enemy order of battle is or who is in charge. All we know is that people over there are killing and dying.

This confusion differs radically from the war movies that most of us watch. In the movies the enemy is known and you are always shooting at targets that you can identify.

Be sure to also read Alex’s account of his friend’s death. It complements this week’s essay of the week.

A Warning

This from the Jerusalem Post…

The British newspaper said that a battery of US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missiles had been moved to the Negev site following intelligence that Damascus may launch a raid in retaliation for the September 6 strike on a suspected nuclear installation in northern Syria.

I find it hard to believe that Israel’s Nuclear reactor has only recently been protected by Patriot anti-aircraft missiles. I think that this “News Story” is a warning to Syrian not to try anything.

But it should also serve as a warning to all of us. We become so accustomed to stability and wealth that we don’t think about all the ways in which the world is balanced on a knife’s edge. Just think of what would happen should Syrian or Iran launch a successful strike on Israel’s nuclear reactor. The results of such a successful strike are unpredictable, but the after effects would probably make current oil prices look cheap.

I am not saying that such a strike will happen. In fact, the worst disasters are usually those things that nobody anticipates. But we should never fall into the trap of thinking that stable is normal.

The news that will shape the coming week

China has been letting its currency appreciate a little bit lately. This from Brad Setser’s blog…

In his most recent post, Mr. Pettis notes that the RMB’s pace of appreciation picked up last week. That’s true, but the rapid appreciation last week came after an extended period when the RMB was stuck at 7.5 even as the dollar was falling.

China basically sat out the dollar’s fall in September and October — or rather, it opted to follow the dollar down v. host of currencies. A bit of appreciation against the dollar just undoes some of the RMB’s recent depreciation against the euro.

More importantly, as Mr. Pettis notes, expectations of RMB appreciation have picked up. If the market is right and the RMB appreciates by 7% over the next year, simple Chinese bank deposits look mighty attractive.

This is something to watch. China may decided that faster appreciation may be just the ticket to deal with its fuel problems. After all, if the RMB can buy more dollars it can also buy more oil. I don’t think 7% is enough to greatly help though. But if oil prices keep going up in dollar terms, it may encourage them to increase the pace of appreciation.

This would increase the pressure on the dollar (because China would not be supporting it as heavily) and would raise the price of US imports. This would increase US inflation.

In other news, Citi bank has confessed that they have lost between $8 billion to $11 billion more than originally confessed to. They also got rid of their CEO. Calculated Risk had this to say about the Citi press release…

The press release is stunning – this could just be the beginning of the write downs! They claim they will be able to maintain their dividend – I doubt it.

These losses are very dependent on house prices – “fair value of these super senior exposures is based on estimates about, among other things, future housing prices” – I’d love to see their estimate of future price declines (they are probably too optimistic.)

What happens if one of those many Citi pier loans goes bad? Ouch.

If the markets share Calculated Risk’s reaction, this could be an interesting week on Wall Street. One thing that ought to worry anyone with enough sense to keep their heart beating is the fact that Citi still seems to have no clue of what their losses are going be. Either that or they are lying through their teeth. I suspect that it is some of both.

And while all this is all very interesting, the world does not solely revolve around American and its economic issues. Things like politics and religion come into play as well. That is why it is worth keeping your eye on Pakistan. Musharraf has just declared emergency rule. As the Christian Science Monitor says…

In a dramatic move that made explicit his desperation to preserve near-absolute power, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency Saturday, effectively eliminating the opposition that has built against him in recent months.

In doing so, Mr. Musharraf introduced a new “provisional constitutional order” – a move many say looks more like martial law. Despite his assertions to the contrary, his decision has little to do with terrorism, analysts say, adding that his was a political calculation. With the Supreme Court threatening to declare his presidency illegal in a ruling this week, Musharraf struck preemptively against his foes.

Under the emergency order, he has sacked more than half of the Supreme Court, jailed up to 500 opposition party leaders, and shut down the independent media – assuming that the US has invested too much in him and the war on terror to withdraw its patronage. The order may also delay parliamentary elections, which had been scheduled to take place before Jan. 15.

This is a pattern that has been repeated many times in Pakistan’s history. Typical, the army eventually gets tired of backing an unpopular ruler and they kick him out. But is there really anyone out there that the Pakistani Army can stomach? Maybe if Musharraf becomes too much of a liability they will just replace one general with another.