The study of history is indispensable to the understanding of the present. How many people understand that Turkey has Kurdish problem because of how they did away with the Armenians?

Spengler’s essay entitled Turkey fears Kurds, not Armenians is an excellent example of the type of historical analysis that you should see more often. How many other discussions of Turkey’s “Kurdish problem” in the newspapers make reference the devils bargain that the Turks made with the Kurds in 1915?

The only problem with Spengler’s excellent essay is its conclusion. Spengler has long argued that that America should embrace the instability in the Middle East and use it for its own ends. In past essays, Spengler has held up as his model for American actions the British Empire’s method of playing tribe against tribe and nation against nation to secure their own ends.

But I think that Spengler “realism” is a fundamental misreading of history. It is true that the British often played a Machiavellian game. But the British goal was always the creation of stability. They wanted the competing powers to balance each other out so that they could play the broker. By definition, you can not control chaos.

It was chaos that eventually destroyed the British system. It was the uncontrolled fighting between Hindus and Muslims in India. It was the fighting between Jew and Arab in the Middle East. It was the fighting between blacks and whites in Africa. The effort to maintain stability became more then British people could bear and their empire fell apart.

With chaos threatening to sweep through the Middle East; with Russia in the middle of a demographic death spiral and sitting on one of the largest stocks of nuclear weapons in the world; with China one serious economic crises away from military adventuresome (how else would the goverment maintain legitimacy?); the US is faced with the prospect of so much chaos that its super power status will cease to have any real meaning.

It does not do you much good to be captain of a sinking ship or a superpower in world without stability.

Comparing the capabilities of historical figures is always a little ridicules. There are so many variables involved that who is to say that this person is better then that person. But even allowing for that, I think that it is fairly safe to say that Masud was far better commander then Musharraf is.

After all, Masud had the Taliban fought to a standstill for years. And all during this time, Pakistan and radical Arabs were providing heavy support for the Taliban. There are even reliable reports of Pakistani military officers directing artillery fire on Masud positions for the Taliban. And all during this time, Masud received next to nothing from outside sources. It was for being such a pain that they brought guys all the way from Algeria just to assassinate Masud.

Contrast this with Musharraf. He is in command of a massive army that has all kinds of modern weapons. He has received billions of dollars in aid from the US. Presumably the Taliban are not receiving nearly as much aid from outside sources as they use to get. And yet, the Taliban are overrunning Musharraf’s military bases.

It would be one thing if Musharraf was having trouble chasing the Taliban out of the mountains. Every major military in the world has had trouble with guerrillas. America in Vietnam, Russia in Afghanistan, and France in Algeria just to name a few. But it was almost unheard of for the military forces of those nations to lose a fortified military out posts to a guerrilla force. In other words, they were driven out by attrition. Not by losing ground.

By contrast, The Pakistani military is losing ground to Taliban.

I use to think the relatively poor performance of the Pakistani military was because Musharraf did not want to push too hard for domestic reasons. But the latest battle resulted in hundreds of dead Pakistani solders, scores of Pakistani solders held captive, and overrun Pakistani military outposts being used by Taliban. Now the Pakistani government is begging for peace.

Maybe Musharraf has been trying all along to defeat the Taliban and has just been getting his but kicked.

From the Jerusalem Post…..

Spice has no engine to give it away to sensors and does not rely on global positioning systems (GPS) to guide it to its target, making it very hard to detect or deflect before its pinpoint impact on target, the officer in charge of the project said Monday.

Instead, digital pictures of the target are downloaded into the computerized guidance system, which then matches the picture to the reality on the ground.

In addition to its incredible accuracy, a fighter plane can be loaded with several Spice bombs which can be programmed to hit different targets despite being launched from the same spot. Once released, Spice glides in to destroy its target, which can be dozens of kilometers away.

Spice is a totally blue and white product, a joint project of the air force and Rafael Armaments Development Authority. While very effective, it is not cheap. It costs more than a Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) but is in “a different league,” according to the officer in charge. It has twice the range of the American-produced JDAM.

If the US air force was smart, they would be taking notes. The JDAM will not work if China or someone else takes out US satellites.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the plan is to equip the Iraqi army with M-16s. How stupid can the US government get? As Phillip Carter says….

With this program, we’re making the job of our advisers in the field significantly tougher, notwithstanding the contractor support at Camp Taji for the training of Iraqis. Although, I seriously doubt these Iraqis can shoot their rifles with anything approaching proficiency after three days. You spend more time than that in basic training learning how to get dressed, let alone learning how to shoot. Training marksmanship takes weeks or months or years, not a few days. This program has the potential to fundamentally change the mission calculus for advisers working with the Iraqi army, such that they must now focus much more time on individual weapons skills vice actual patrolling and combat operations. I also wonder whether this is the best use of Iraqi funds, or whether it would’ve been smarter to fix the AK-centric logistics system they already have.

I think that T.E. Lawrence’s ghost is probably laughing at us right now. What next? Will we try to give laptops, e-mail and PowerPoint to the Iraqi army? Oh wait…

Some commentators on Mr. Carter’s blog argue that giving M-16s to the Iraqi army is a good thing. After all, the weapon takes so much careful maintenance to maintain that in the absence of American support and supervision they are likely to become useless.

But that argument only strengthens my point. Does the US government want to turn Iraqi army into effective force or not? If they do, giving them M-16s is the last thing they should be doing. Heck, the co-creator of the M-16 recently said that if his son was over in Iraq he would want him to have an AK.

This from Aviation Weekly:

U.S. aerospace industry and retired military officials indicated the Israelis utilized a technology like the U.S.-developed “Suter” airborne network attack system developed by BAE Systems and integrated into U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle operations by L-3 Communications. Israel has long been adept at using unmanned systems to provoke and spoof Syrian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, as far back as the Bekka Valley engagements in 1982.

And what is Suter?

This from a different Aviation Weekly article….

Senior Suter is a Big Safari-managed special access program. Big Safari itself is a shadowy Air Force unit that has developed small numbers of specialized reconnaissance systems, including drones, in what are often classified programs. The Suter technology was developed during the last several years by BAE Systems and involves invading enemy communications networks and computer systems, particularly those associated with integrated air defense systems (AW&ST Aug. 16, 2004, p. 24; Nov. 4, 2002, p. 30). Suter 1 allowed U.S. operators to monitor what enemy radars could see. The capability enables U.S. forces to assess the effectiveness of their stealth systems or terrain-masking tactics. Suter 2 permits U.S. operators to take control of enemy networks as system managers and actually manipulate the sensors, steering them away from penetrating U.S. aircraft. Suter 3 was tested last summer to add the ability to invade the links to time-critical targets, such as battlefield ballistic missile launchers or mobile surface-to-air missile launchers. Aircraft involved in the Suter programs include the EC-130 Compass Call, RC-135 Rivet Joint and F-16CJ strike aircraft specialized for suppression of enemy air defenses.

Here is a Defense Tech article on the subject of Suter. Also, h/t to Defense Tech for bringing the Aviation Weekly article to my attention.

Reading this transcript puts a sick feeling into my stomach. You can read more about this particular flight here.

This week’s essay is from Spengler and it contains all that is great about him. Who else would observe the problem that falling birthrates pose for the natural law crowd?

But this essay is not without the typical Spenglerian flaws. Given his optimistic views on the future of Christianity one has to wonder if he does not see the end of history approaching soon.

But if you want something different from the run of mill essay on world politics, you have to take the good with the bad.

From the Telegraph……

A suspicious North Korean freighter that re-flagged itself as South Korean before off-loading an unknown cargo at the Syrian port of Tartous is at the centre of efforts today to investigate Israel’s recent air strike on Syria.

An Israeli on-line data analyst, Ronen Solomon, found an internet trace for the 1,700-tonne cargo ship, Al Hamed, which showed the vessel started to off-load what Syrian officials categorised as “cement” on Sept 3.

This was three days before Israeli jets attacked a site in the north eastern desert of Syria, not far from its border with Iraq.

North Korea is famous for its exports of concrete.

In other news, I think Israel has taken a step up with their new defenses minister Ehud Barak. He made some calls when he was a prime minister that might seem questionable to conservative types. But his decisions as defense minister are at least understandable. That is more then you can say for his predecessor.

As an example, read this article in The Times….

Early in the summer Ehud Barak, the defence minister, had given the order to double Israeli forces on its Golan Heights border with Syria in anticipation of possible retaliation by Damascus in the event of air strikes.

Sergei Kirpichenko, the Russian ambassador to Syria, warned President Bashar al-Assad last month that Israel was planning an attack, but suggested the target was the Golan Heights.

Israeli military intelligence sources claim Syrian special forces moved towards the Israeli outpost of Mount Hermon on the Golan Heights. Tension rose, but nobody knew why.

At this point, Barak feared events could spiral out of control. The decision was taken to reduce the number of Israeli troops on the Golan Heights and tell Damascus the tension was over. Syria relaxed its guard shortly before the Israeli Defense Forces struck.

That is an exercise in deception that you would expect from a guy who dressed as a woman in order to assassinate people in downtown Beirut while it was controlled by PLO.

You could argue he should have kept the troops on the border just in case. But I can understand not wanting to do anything to jeopardize the air strike if it was really a nuclear target. Israel can handled Syrian conventional forces in almost any conceivable situation. But if you flub an attack on a weapon of mass destruction, you might not get a second chance.

In that context, making it look like Israel was backing down was probably the right decision. You don’t expect an enemy who is withdrawing troops from your border to attack you.

H/T The Belmont Club which also has satellite photos of possible targets. Apparently, Syria’s nuclear research agency is big on doing agricultural research