I stop watching for a little bit and it all ends….

I don’t have a clear idea of what he got out of this. Some say that he was just allowed to leave with his skin in tact while others say he was promised leadership changes in the Russian MOD. Regardless, I don’t think he is gong to live long although I do expect that they will let him go into exile since they have announced that as solution. However, he will still need to be very careful to stay away from windows and make all his own tea. On the other hand, a long life was not in his plan from the day he started to run his mouth so as soon as it became clear that nobody was coming over to join him all he could do is negotiate for the best terms possible.

Even 25 thousand men that have nobody fighting them can only take a small part of Moscow just because of it shear size. The city proper has 970 square miles and the actual metropolitan area has 10,000 square miles. If Wagner had got into Moscow they would have barely have enough men to secure the city center. That is why I said earlier that there plans were tactically sound but strategically dubious. They did get all the way to outskirts of Moscow and I am not sure anyone could have stopped them from entering so in that respect they planned it well. But once in the city that big all they would have been was a traveling traffic jam even with hundreds of armored vehicles.

As it stands right now, I am not sure how well he played his hand because I don’t know what he got. I know some pro-Wagner accounts are very un-happy and I know some anti-Wagner Russian accounts are unhappy. I guess it fits those whose idea of a good compromise as one that leaves everyone unhappy but we will have a better idea in the next 24 hours of how well Wagner played its hand.

Last night I was wondering what Putin was up to. He finally gave a speech after delaying it repeatedly and making Russian television presenters look like fools (or at least appear to be very awkward). You can read about the speech here.

Now I am wondering what Ukraine is up to. Contrary to my expectations they seem to have put their offensive on a lull. You would think now would be the time to increase the pressure. I can think of a couple of possible explanations….

1. Maybe the Slavic tendency to extreme paranoia is stopping them from acting. If you recall, Ukraine missed a huge opportunity to take advantage of the Russia withdrawal from Kerson because they thought it was some kind of trap. Some pro-Ukrainian sources still have that fear about current events as can be seen by this link.

2. The Ukrainians are trying to keep the pressure off so units feel free to leave the defense line to support one side or the other. If this is there plan, it don’t seem to be working yet.

3. The Ukrainians were bloodied worse the pro-Ukrainian sources would have you believe and they are using this time to recover.

4. They are working on something big and it takes time to get everything in place. I am recently hearing rumors that Ukraine is on the move again but nothing substantial.

This is page from the Drive is being update throughout the day for those that don’t want to deal with Twitter and Telegram (and I never thought I would be one to do that but I can’t help myself and it is the only way to stay current as nothing else is keeping up).

Here is one example…..

This is a pro Russian perspective from Indian, more coherent then above but still seems out of touch with what is actually happening.

Short Version: Wagner has a tactically sound but strategically dubious plan. They have placed most Russia forces in a dilemma as Wagener now controls their supply lines and Ukraine troops are in front of them. The most elite Wagner forces appear to be racing to Moscow with nothing to stop them. Tactically, this is a very risky, but very sound strategy if your goal is take Moscow with the small force that Wagner has available. But even assuming this all work out tactically, for it to work the way Wagner wants it to requires that a few thousands troops in Moscow brings the Russian government down. This was the same bet that Napoleon made and it did not work out. If Wagner takes Moscow but most people remain on the sidelines or loyal to Putin, they are then very spread out geographically with no obvious next move.