Anything That Can Go Wrong Will Go Wrong

From Spiegel….

The Netherlands’ emergency preparedness personnel spent all of last week conducting an exercise dubbed “Ergst Denkbare Overstroming (EDO),” or worst possible flooding, a scenario in which they virtually placed one-third of the country underwater. In the computer models, the entire west and north coasts, as well as low-lying areas in the large Rhine River delta where two-thirds of the country’s 17 million people live were submerged.

The scenario spells pure horror for the Dutch. Just in time for the spring tide, under a full moon, a giant low-pressure zone with force 11 to 12 winds (wind speeds of 64 to more than 73 miles per hour) rolls in from the North Sea. The storm surge pushes five-and-a-half-meter (18-foot) waves against storm barriers along the coast. But the elements have even more in store for the unfortunate Dutch. There is a thaw in the Alps, and it has been raining heavily in Germany for days. The Rhine River is carrying 16,000 cubic meters (4.2 million gallons) of water across the German-Dutch border — every second.

The experts have calculated that this scenario is likely to occur once every 4,000 years. “But what good is this number to us? It could happen in a week,” says Berghuis, “and that’s why we would rather be prepared.”

I am surprised that the Netherlands has lasted as long as it has. I would not want to be dependent on a man made systems of dikes to keep dry.

Welcome To The Future Part III

From Bloomberg….

More senior citizens are picking pockets and shoplifting in Japan to cope with cuts in government welfare spending and rising health-care costs in a fast-ageing society.

Criminal offences by people 65 or older doubled to 48,605 in the five years to 2008, the most since police began compiling national statistics in 1978, a Ministry of Justice report said.

I had to read that twice to make sure that elderly crime had doubled since 2003, not 1978. It would have been no surprises had it doubled since 1978 since absolute number of elderly people has probably doubled since then. But it seems as if Japan is truly seeing a crime wave of sorts from its elderly citizens. From later on in the same article….

“Some elderly, particularly men who lost their wives, even turn to crimes to be put in jail so they can be fed three times a day,” Yamada said.

The whole article is pretty depressing.

Meanwhile, On a different island nation they are dealing with a different problem. From the Telegraph….

Girls as young as 13 will be pressed to have contraceptive jabs under Government plans to “urgently” bring down teenage pregnancy rates.

Ministers have ordered council and health chief executives to increase the uptake of “long-acting” contraception in teen pregnancy “hot spots”.

The government also wants more school-based clinics to administer the jabs, which can make girls infertile for up to three months.

Teenagers can receive the injections or implants without their parents’ knowledge.

Critics warn that the controversial move will promote promiscuity and that injections and implants will not protect against the rampant spread of sexually transmitted disease. Some health experts also say that the drugs are unsuitable for girls who are still growing.

Its a wonderful world.

The Games We Play

From the AP….

Four insurance companies on Friday asked the government to allow them to buy thrifts so they can qualify to receive federal money under the financial rescue program.

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., Genworth Financial Inc., Lincoln National Corp. and Aegon NV, a Dutch company that owns U.S. insurer Transamerica, each asked the Office of Thrift Supervision for permission to acquire an existing savings and loan.

Calculated Risk has more on Hartford’s request.

This should not be allowed. If we are going to bail out insurance companies, let us bail out insurance companies. But let us not encourage insurance companies to buy small savings and loan operations just so that they can get billions of dollars from the Federal government.

China's Electrical Consumption and US Sales Figures

Marginal Revolution alerts us to the fact that China’s generated 4% less electrical power in October then they did a year before. If this statistic is accurate, China is in a devastating free fall.

One should note that many of the comments on this post are garbage. For example, the idea that this change can be accounted for by the Olympics does not pass the smell test. In the first place, this was a year over year comparison. In other words it was comparing October of this year with October of last year. A lot of people talking about the effects of the Olympics are talking as if it is a drop off from the previous month. Furthermore, the idea that the Olympics can dramatically effect the energy consumption of a billion+ people is absurd. If anything, the Olympics should have cause a rebound in October as many the restrictions put into place for the Olympics were lifted.

The efficiency arguments are also a stretch. If China can grow GDP and shrink electrical usage at the same time it would be one for the history books. I don’t doubt that China is becoming more energy efficient. But historically speaking, efficiency gains only mean that that GDP growth results in a smaller increase in electrical generation. If anyone knows of a case where a developing country cut electrical usage and raised GDP at the same time they should let me know.

The real question centers around reliability of this statistic. All statistics taken by government agencies need to be taken with a grain of salt. And in China that goes double. Plus, I would have liked to know how noisy China’s electrical statistics normally are. Maybe it is common for them to bounce around a lot.

Having said that, there is lots of other anecdotal evidence to the effect that China took it hard in October.

For example, The US Censuses Bureau reports….

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, a decrease of 2.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 4.1 percent (±0.7%) below October 2007. Total sales for the August through October 2008 period were down 1.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2008 percent change was revised from –1.2 percent (±0.5%) to –1.3 percent (±0.3%).

Kind of funny how the US sales drop of 4% from last October matches the drop in China’s electrical consumption huh?

Things you would rather not know

From a Spiegel article on lost nuclear weapons….

But what made this incident famous was the bomb that landed in a tree. Five of its six fuses designed to prevent a detonation failed, with only the last one averting a nuclear explosion. After this near-disaster, the security systems in US nuclear weapons were revised, and Washington asked the Soviet Union to do the same.

The Next Bank Failure?

From Felix Salmon….

The massive Wall Street rally this afternoon, and a statement in support of Citigroup’s chairman, didn’t help Citi, which closed down slightly on the day at $9.45 a share. Clearly the market is very worried about Citi’s future, and the fact that it’s trading in single digits — which means that a modest $1 decline in the share price means headlines about a 10% plunge — doesn’t help.

75% of all spam came from one company?

From the Washington Post….

The volume of junk e-mail sent worldwide dropped drastically today after a Web hosting firm identified by the computer security community as a major host of organizations allegedy engaged in spam activity was taken offline, according to security firms that monitor spam distribution online.

While its gleaming, state-of-the-art, 30-story office tower in downtown San Jose, Calif., hardly looks like the staging ground for what could be called a full-scale cyber crime offensive, security experts have found that a relatively small firm at that location is home to servers that serve as a gateway for a significant portion of the world’s junk e-mail.

The servers are operated by McColo Corp., which these experts say has emerged as a major U.S. hosting service for international firms and syndicates that are involved in everything from the remote management of millions of compromised computers to the sale of counterfeit pharmaceuticals and designer goods, fake security products and child pornography via email.

From latter on in the same article….

“McColo runs a service that offers its clients quite a bit more protection from takedowns than the average Web host,” Stewart said. “If they get abuse complaints they will try to appease whoever is complaining, but the end result is usually they just end up moving their Internet addresses around.”

Collectively, these botnets appear to be responsible for sending roughly 75 percent of all spam each day, according to the latest stats from Marshal, a security company in the United Kingdom that tracks botnet activity.

I find this hard to believe. But what do I know?

The problem with out sourcing

From S4 at war….

When one of my vehicles was damaged I would drop it off at the motor pool. Then it would vanish into the support abyss. A few weeks-usually a few months-later I’d have a fixed vehicle or a new vehicle. Turns out one of two things happen. It gets evaluated for damage and if its below a certain threshold then my unit’s mechanics take a whack at it and fix it. If its over that threshold then it gets turned in to civilians who then take several months to fix/replace the vehicle. The excitement comes when you go to turn in the vehicle and the civilians use the subjective criteria to determine that your bent frame rail isn’t quite bent enough for them to take it, “Sorry, this doesn’t meet the criteria for us to fix.” You then spend as long as you can tolerate arguing with them about the degree of damage to a vehicle knowing full well that you don’t stand a chance of winning. The unspoken truth over here is that civilians run the show. Somehow, eventually(sometimes 6 months or more), the truck gets fixed or replaced but its a nightmare, a logistical nightmare really.

The problem with out sourcing is there is no real unity of command. Two separate parties to a contract have a lot different relationship then a bunch of people who are on the same team. No amount of rhetoric and no amount tweaking to a contract can change this fact. Cooperations that outsource core operations often run into problems for similar reasons.