More interesting to listen to then I thought it would be. Not so much because of the wargame itself but because of the various things that the responses to the wargame revealed about American Policy makers.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 22, 2024
Ukraine Situation Report: Russia May Have To Move Air Defenses To Cover Cities
Drone Attacks Menace Russia’s Key Route for Exporting Oil
No-confidence motion against Netanyahu fails in Knesset, with only 18 votes in favor
For those that don’t know, Jewish fertility is as high as it is because of the ultra high fertility of certain religious sects. Otherwise it would be rock bottom like secular people everywhere. Israeli demography: Declining fertility, migration, and mortality
Supreme Court Allows Biden Admin to Remove Texas Border Wire
Hochul Is Ready to Start Weaning New York Off Gas
Two Cicada Broods Are About to Emerge at the Same Time. They Haven’t Paired Up Since 1803.
Top Harvard Cancer researchers accused of scientific fraud; 37 studies affected
What happens when an astronaut in orbit says he’s not coming back?
It annoys me when people bounce around from thinking Ukraine is losing to thinking that Ukraine is winning based on short term factors. But my last post on the “One New Aspect of Warfare That The War In Ukraine Has Revealed” could have appeared to fall into the same trap of group think and going with the prevailing winds. Currently it is quite fashionable to be pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances due to short term issues and my post on long range fires (a military term I am appropriating and using to cover more systems then the US military typically does) could be seen as contributing to it. So to correct that unbalance let me elaborate on a throwaway line in my last post where I said “The West can easily give the long range tools to Ukraine to cause Russia a lot of pain but then they have to worry about Russia going to nukes.”
In absolute terms, the Russian strategic position is extremely weak. To be sure, if you measure Ukraine alone against Russia, Russia has the advantage. But Ukraine was a basket case before Russia invaded so saying they have the advantage does not mean much. I predicated that Russia would fall apart years back and nothing that has occurred since then has caused me to think that prediction was wrong. It remains one of my biggest fears.
People who are gloomy about the future of the West as I am often seem to fall into the trap of thinking that the West’s enemies are better off. But that just goes to show how much their view of the world is based on mood affiliation and not on facts. Some enemies of the West are worst off then the West is and Russia is certainly in this category. One of my biggest fears in the near term is what the collapse of Russia would mean for me and those I care about. In this fear, the ruling class of the West and I have a lot in common and that is why they don’t really want to see Ukraine win.
I am not going to go into detail in this post about all the long time term factors that make me expect the collapse of the Russian state (although I will note that in Russia’s case it is even worse than the lack of babies). Instead, I want to make a simple point about how the logic of my post about the new nature of long term precision fires means that Russia is a hair’s breadth from losing this war overnight. The only thing that is keeping them in the game is the West’s fear of their nuclear weapons. But West’s calculations about what they can get away with are constantly changing. All that has to happen is for their perspective to change slightly and Russia will have face the choice of complete collapse or getting out the big bombs.
Continue reading
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 21, 2024
Russia Suspends Operations At Fuel Export Terminal After Drone Attack
Generals among 5 IRGC commanders killed in alleged Israeli strike on Damascus
US: Republican Ron DeSantis suspends presidential campaign
Does preschool help kids — or harm them?
Advocates Outraged That Feds Asked Banks To Search Customers’ ‘Religious Texts’ Purchases
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 20, 2024
Iranian And Hezbollah Commanders Help Direct Houthi Attacks In Red Sea
Five IRGC-Quds Force Terror Commanders Eliminated in Alleged Israeli Strike
Impossible to both defeat Hamas and rescue hostages
Germany: Citizenship law could prompt 50,000 Turks to apply
This puts it in concrete terms how regulations makes it tough to be poor. Lots of poor people (and even not so poor) in the US would love these but will never get them. Toyota’s $10,000 Pickup Truck Is Perfect. So, Why Are We Sad?
You have to speed read through the first few pages to get to the interesting stuff and writing is academic so it never gets that good. Protestant Pentecostals in the Pentecostals in the Post-War Repression in Southern Ukraine 1945 – 1953
U.S. Power Infrastructure Tested by Ongoing Component Shortages
Alone in the Dark: Sometimes being lost is how you find your way
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 19, 2024
Why are many Russians freezing in their homes this winter?
Houthi Missiles Do Far More Damage to Trade Than Ships
Denver hospital system may collapse due to migrant crisis: ‘We are turning down patients’
Game developer survey: 50% work at a studio already using generative AI tools
Harvard Claims ‘Holy Grail’ EV Battery Breakthrough. But When Will We See It?
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 18, 2024
Ukraine Situation Report: Long-Range Drone Strikes Expand To St. Petersburg
Israel Destroys Hamas’s Main Weapons Manufacturing Site, Uncovers New Vast Tunnel Network
Hezbollah rejects US overtures, still open to diplomacy to avoid wider war
Pakistan Strikes Back At Iran, Targeting Militants Near Border
Doom Loop: San Francisco’s Budget Deficit Could Top $1.4 billion by 2027
Not passed yet. Maine Bill Strips the Rights of Parents Opposing Transgender ‘Care’ for Their Children
The strong “No one” part is trigger the autistic but if you read the article you will understand why they worded it that way. Still, with all the millions of people that went through the autistic part in me wants to argue the point. No one’s family name was changed, altered, shortened, butchered, or “written down wrong” at Ellis Island or any American port. That idea is an urban legend.
As Keynes observed, in the long run, we are all dead. This uniformity in long term results tends to focus our minds on the short term. But that does not change the fact that most of the news stories that we pay attention to will be hardly matter in 10 years. Meanwhile, things that we ignore will have profound impact on the world for a long time to come. What follows is a few things that caught my attention over the last week that did not make the headlines but that I think will matter for a long time to come.
1. Roughly 2.7 million children were born in the US in 2023 compared to roughly 1.7 million children being born in Egypt. Population of the US in 20230 was 339,996,563. Population of Egypt in 2023 is 112,716, 598. With about a third the population of the US, Egypt is producing almost two thirds the amount of babies. This is to a certain extent offset higher child mortally in Egypt but not enough to make a significant difference in the long term outcomes.
In the short run these things mean nothing. In the long run though, these figures will change the world.
Egypt is continuing its trend of being one of the world’s biggest time bombs. The idea that Latin America will continue to supply an endless supply of young people to America is one of the biggest fears of American nationalist and the biggest comfort for those who see a bright future for American demographically. Yet the data from the sending countries does not support the idea that this tread will last for very much longer. And China is continuing to track the worst case scenarios of its demographic decline. If this continues much longer, the formally pessimistic forecasts of China’s demographic future will turn into an optimistic pipe dream. A fertility rate of 1 becomes devastating very quickly.