Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 23, 2024

Analyzing the Houthi-Israel Attacks

‘A grave mistake’: Former Houthi official says it was error to attack Israel

China cuts several major interest rates to support fragile economy

Cheatle Resigns and for Good Cause.

So, How is the Red Sea Fight Going?

Kuwait Looks To Nearly Double Production After Major Oil Find

Interest Payments on US National Debt Will Shatter $1,140,000,000,000 This Year – Eating 76% of All Income Taxes Collected

The War Zone has highlighted serious questions about the sustainability of U.S. nuclear modernization efforts in the past. Estimates have put the total cost to modernize the triad – consisting of silo-based ICBMs, nuclear ballistic missile submarines, and nuclear-capable long-range bombers – as well as other nuclear weapons programs and supporting efforts, at $1.7 trillion.

AT&T failed to test disastrous update that kicked all devices off network

Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 22, 2024

Ukraine Situation Report: Large Two-Pronged Drone Attack Struck Russian Refinery, Airbase

Ukraine Drone Damages Russia’s Largest Black Sea Refinery

Supertanker Detained in Malaysia After Fleeing Scene of Collision Near Singapore

Will Debt Sink the American Empire?

The missing man.

She has managed to unite Democrats and Republicans. Chairman James Comer and Ranking Member Jamie Raskin call for United States Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to resign.

Top Dems threatened to forcibly remove Biden from office unless he dropped out

The spectacular rise and surprising staying power of the George Foreman Grill

The Israeli Attack on Yemen And What It Means For The Iran/Israeli Conflict

The recent Israeli attack against Yemen reinforces my view of the Israeli/Iran balance of terror. For those who have not been following the story, the Houthis managed to fly a drone that got through Israeli’s air defenses and hit Tel Aviv. In response, Israel blew up a bunch of oil storage and dock cranes in Houthi’s only port that they control. The result was very striking images of burning fuel that continued for quite some time. I have seen it alleged that Israel chose to target the fuel depots just because they knew that that they would produce very striking visuals for all population living under Houthi rule to see.

Now Israel tried to dress this attack up as attacking military targets on the grounds that the port was being used to import Iranian weapons. But what they were fundamentally trying to do is put the only port that the Houthis control out of action. As all the bleeding heart aid groups were quick to point out, this threatened all the food aid that was coming into Houthi controlled territory and “continued the pattern of Israel using starvation as weapon.” I don’t know how much Israel is really trying to use starvation as weapon and how much they are truly trying to make it difficult for the Houthis to import the things needed to keep themselves armed like the Israelis claimed. But in a practical sense, there is no difference because when you truly start targeting the crucial infrastructure you threatening a society’s ability to function in both a military and a civilian sense.

What I am driving at is that this situation demonstrates the point I was trying to make in “A Strategic Overview of The Conflict Between Iran and Israel.” The fact that America had a carrier group sitting off the coast of Yemen bombing “military targets” for long time now without accomplishing anything helps make the point of why Israel would not target pure “military” targets. When Israel was the victim of successful attack on the heart of their economy (which is based around Tel Aviv in terms of where the GDP is generated), they immediately struck what is an essential economic target in Yemen. They did not waste their limited ability to get planes down into the area to strike at “military targets” because as the Americans have shown that does not work.

What is more striking is how dramatic this attack was compared to other recent counter strikes by Israel. Iran fired a ton of missiles at Israel and got a much more subdued counterstrike then the Houthis got for landing one successful drone attack. But as I pointed out in my Strategic Overview, Iran only aimed their serious weapons (as far as we can tell) at military targets. So in response they got a much milder counterstrike. The same can be said for the on going tit for tat with Hezbollah. Israel has been killing Hezbollah targets left and right but no dramatic attacks like the one the Houthis got. And I think that this is because Hezbollah has been careful not to strike at areas of core importance to the Israeli economy. What the attack on the Houthis illustrated is what Israel really feels sensitive about and how they respond to what they regard as true threats.

Much has been made about how the fact that the attack on the Houthis shows that Israel can strike Iran because the distance is similar. In one sense this ignores the fact that that striking Iran requires flying over other nations while the attack on Yemen did not and the fact that Houthis have no air defense to speak of. But in other sense, this does demonstrate that Israel recognizes the futility of attacking “military targets” in Iran. If Israel does not feel able to hunt “military targets” in Yemen where they don’t have to worry any kind of serious air defenses, why would they go through the effort of trying to hit those targets in a much better defended Iran?

This is hardly a novel idea on my part. The implications for Iran’s oil export infrastructure are mentioned in the below video which also recaps the entire story in a rather dry way.

In once sense this discussion is nothing but an interesting intellectual exercise. But in another sense, it should tell you that as the risk of an Iran/Israel conflict heats up, the risk of a sharp rise in oil prices also climbs dramatically. Oil prices are set at the margin and that means even small changes in supply can produce outsize swings in prices until weaker parties are priced out of the market. Iran is the fourth largest oil exporter in the world. If they are taken out of the market in a sudden fashion, the swings in oil prices will be extreme.

Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 21, 2024

Hungary facing fuel crisis as Ukraine turns up heat on Russian oil supplies

Details Of Israel’s Long-Range Strike That Decimated Yemeni Port Emerge

Israel Destroys Main Houthi Port Used By Iran For Weapons Shipments, In Retaliation For Drone Attack On Tel Aviv

Iran ‘now probably 1 or 2 weeks away’ from nuclear weapon breakout

Egypt is building cool missiles bases they’re deeply dug into mountains w/ hardened shelters w/ SAM’s & EW.

Bangladesh’s internet blackout immobilizes its booming tech industry

Why Biden finally quit

Friends don’t let friends buy Dodges. Indiana Police’s New Dodge Durangos Already Sidelined by Mass Engine Failures

Links For Today

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 19, 2024

Explosive drone from Yemen hits Tel Aviv apartment, killing one man, wounding others

Intel Says Russia Looking To Arm Houthis With Anti-Ship Missiles

Whistleblower allegations suggest the majority of DHS officials were not in fact USSS agents but instead drawn from the department’s Homeland Security Investigations (HSI).

The Seven Thinkers and Groups That Have Shaped JD Vance’s Unusual Worldview

Tech mogul Elon Musk has announced he has removed Crowdstrike from all his systems amid the ongoing glitch.

Angry admins share the CrowdStrike outage experience

“Alarming Development” – First-Line Treatment for Deadly Superbug Is Weakening