Back on November 12th, Reporting From Ukraine predicted that the next target of the Ukrainian military would be the Kinburn peninsula. I did not think that this was anything other the Ukrainian forces trying to worry the Russians because it seemed crazy to me that they would try to attack the Russians across a body of water. Today all the pro-Ukrainian U-tube channels that I regularly watch are showing videos like this one….
It is still not clear that this is anything other then a raid (Russia says that it destroyed all the attackers for what that is worth). But Ukraine is sure getting a lot of people’s hopes up if it is only a raid.
Here is Reporting from Ukraine trying to assuage the concerns of people like me who do not think this is tactically sound.
I am not convinced myself. Crossing in little rubber boats is not the same thing as having heavy lift boats needed for really resupply. Also, I see no discussion of Russian Air Power.
If this all works out as being portrayed, it is a sign of how much the Russian military has been degraded. But I am still not convinced the goal is take ground. I think it is possible that the primary motive is to mess with Russian heads.