Essay of the Week: 9/28/08-10/4/08

References are made to the Great Depression everyday now. But few people seem to know very much about the Great Depression. This does not stop people from sagely declaring that we have forgotten the lessons of the Great Depression or blaming our current problems on the dismantling of regulations that were put into place during the Great Depression. It is for this reason we are making Great Myths of the Great Depression essay of the week.

This essay is not without its flaws. The biggest flaw is that the author is too much an ideologue. Also, the essay is too simplistic to satisfy those who already have a good understanding of the history of the Great Depression.

But these flaws are balanced by the fact that the essay is written in a clear non-academic language that is easily understood and it is full of facts about the Great Depression that everyone should know. For the majority of our audience, it will be something of an eye opener.

You can read the essay piecemeal in html format here if you want to (Clicking on the embedded hyperlink above will take you to a PDF of the Essay).

Gas supplies still tight in the South

From the Washington Post….

Gasoline shortages hit towns across the southeastern United States this week, sparking panic buying, long lines and high prices at stations from the small towns of northeast Alabama to Charlotte in the wake of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

In Atlanta, half of the gasoline stations were closed, according to AAA, which said the supply disruptions had taken place along two major petroleum product pipelines that have operated well below capacity since the hurricanes knocked offshore oil production and several refineries out of service along the Gulf of Mexico.

Drivers in Charlotte reported lines with as many as 60 cars waiting to fill up late Wednesday night, and a community college in Asheville, N.C., where most of the 25,000 students commute, canceled classes and closed down Wednesday afternoon for the rest of the week. Shortages also hit Nashville, Knoxville and Spartanburg, S.C., AAA said.

Terrance Bragg, a chef in Charlotte, made it to work only because his grandfather drove from a town an hour away with a 5-gallon plastic container of fuel for him. Three of his co-workers called and said they couldn’t make it.

“I drove past nine or ten gasoline stations that were out of gas,” Bragg said. “I had my GPS up looking for any gas in the area, from the mom-and-pop places to the corporate gas stations. Nothing. They were all taped off.”

Liz Clasen-Kelly, associate director of a homeless assistance center in Charlotte, took the bus to work yesterday. On Wednesday night, she and her husband checked five stations that had no gas, passed a long line backed up onto the interstate highway and chose not to wait at an open gas station with 50 to 60 cars still lined up after 11 p.m.

A Test For The Russian Navy

From the AP…

A Russian warship on Friday rushed to intercept a Ukrainian vessel carrying 33 battle tanks and a hoard of ammunition that was seized by pirates off the Horn of Africa — a bold hijacking that again heightened fears about surging piracy and high-seas terrorism.

A U.S. warship is tracking the vessel but there has been no decision about intercepting it, U.S. Defense Department officials said.

The US must want to give the Russians a chance to play the hero. Otherwise intercepting this ship would seem like a no brainier.

Edit: Danger Room has more.

Nobody wants to buy anything

From Macro Man….

This market just gets more and more surreal. Yesterday saw the release of not one, not two, but three pieces of abjectly awful US economic data. So naturally, equities surged higher and government bonds tanked….because of more hopeful noises over the passage of the TARP.

The orders data was wretched on both a headline and core basis. The core shipments figures, which get plugged straight into the GDP calculation, were also awful, prompting at least a couple of immediate Q3 forecast downgrades.

Meanwhile, just when you thought that the housing data had lost its capacity to shock, the new homes sales figures dropped 11.5% month-on-month. The way things are going, they’ll soon be able to publish housing data by name, e.g. “This month Fred and Mavis Smithers bought 687 Walnut Lane in Pig’s Knuckle, Arkansas.” The one housing figure that Macro Man follows is the supply data; as the chart below illustrates, there is no real improvement in sight.

Washington Mutual Goes Under

From the FDIC press release…

JPMorgan Chase acquired the banking operations of Washington Mutual Bank in a transaction facilitated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. All depositors are fully protected and there will be no cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund.

“For all depositors and other customers of Washington Mutual Bank, this is simply a combination of two banks,” said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. “For bank customers, it will be a seamless transition. There will be no interruption in services and bank customers should expect business as usual come Friday morning.”

JPMorgan Chase acquired the assets, assumed the qualified financial contracts and made a payment of $1.9 billion. Claims by equity, subordinated and senior debt holders were not acquired.

This turned out a lot better then most people feared. The FDIC actually made money on this deal. But those who held shares or who had bonds from Washington Mutual were wiped out.

Man Flies Over The English Channel With A Jet Pack

From Reuters….

Swiss adventurer Yves Rossy flew from England to France Friday propelled by a jetpack strapped to his back — the first person to cross the English Channel in such a way.

The sad part of this story is that the man cheated during the takeoff and landing. So there is still a ways to go before jetpack’s become the things that all little boys dream of.

Fear Makes Men Do Strange Things

From the New York Times….

According to The A.P.Thursday, in the Roosevelt Room after the session, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., literally bent down on one knee as he pleaded with Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, not to “blow it up” by withdrawing her party’s support for the package over what Ms. Pelosi derided as a Republican betrayal.

“I didn’t know you were Catholic,” Ms. Pelosi said, a wry reference to Mr. Paulson’s kneeling, according to someone who observed the exchange. She went on: “It’s not me blowing this up, it’s the Republicans.”

Mr. Paulson sighed. “I know. I know.”

Why all the fear? I think the London Banker’s idea is plausible. He says…

The Fed is very close to being illiquid. That is the fear factor we are seeing at work, and the reason no one will discuss why the bailout is needed – only emphasise the urgency.

The Fed can always print money on a grand scale. But if it does this, the international funding that the US needs will stop. Thus, the Fed is limited in a very real way. And it is burning through its current balance sheet at a terribly fast pace. As Brad Setser says…

In the last two weeks — if I am reading the Federal Reserves’ balance sheet data correctly — the Fed has:

Increased “other loans” to the financial system by around $230 billion (from $23.56b to $262.34b);

Increased its “other assets” by about $80b (from $98.67b to $183.89b);

Increased the securities it lends out to dealers by $60b (from $117.3b to $190.5b);

That works out to the provision of something like $370b of credit to the financial system in a two week period. That may be a bit too high: the outstanding stock of repos felll by $40b (from $126b to $ 86b), leaving a $330b net change in these line items. But that is still enormous.

He sums this all up by saying…

This is a very real crisis. The Fed’s balance tells a story of extraordinary stress. I never would have expected to see the Fed lend out these kinds of sums over such a short-period.

But the question remains, is taping the world’s already quite generous central banks for another 700 billion dollars in funding really an option? The assumption behind the Paulson plan is that will not raise the interest rates the Federal government has to pay. But this is a dubious hope.

Misplaced Priorities

From Reuters…

BEIJING, Sept 25 (Reuters) – Chinese regulators have told domestic banks to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday.

What Chinese domestic banks have lent to American banks is nothing compare to what China’s central bank is lending to the US everyday. Besides, it is a little late to stop lending to US Banks.