From This Week In Petroleum….

With refineries unable to fill pipelines that move product into the Midwest and East Coast, inventories have been dropping, and spot shortages, mainly of gasoline, are occurring, even with increasing imports arriving to help fill the gap. While the restoration of electrical power to refineries has progressed rapidly, it still takes time to bring refineries back online (assuming no mechanical problems occur) and even longer before they reach normal production levels.

Given these circumstances, gasoline inventories have declined to record low levels. At 179 million barrels, total motor gasoline inventories stand at the lowest level since 1967, based on monthly EIA data. Continuing reports of spot shortages of gasoline at some retail outlets where supplies have been most disrupted can be expected over the next several weeks. Distillate inventories and supplies are in better shape, but tight nonetheless. They remain within the lower part of the EIA-defined “normal” range for this time of year.

Robert Rapier explains how politicians have made this worse….

But prices aren’t going up nearly as much as you would expect during these sorts of severe shortages. Why? I think it’s a fear that dealers have of being prosecuted for gouging. So, they keep prices where they are, and they simply run out of fuel when the deliveries don’t arrive on time. If they were allowed to raise prices sharply, people would cut back on their driving and supplies would be stretched further.

From The Detroit News….

So desperate was the bank owner of 8111 Traverse Street to unload the property that it agreed to pay $2,500 in sales commission and another $1,000 bonus for closing the $1 sale; the bank also will pay $500 of the buyer’s closing costs. Throw in back taxes and a water bill, and unloading the house will cost the bank about $10,000.

From Bloomberg…

Japan, China and other holders of U.S. government debt must quickly reach an agreement to prevent panic sales leading to a global financial collapse, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank.

“We are in the same boat, we must cooperate,” Yu said in an interview in Beijing on Sept. 23. “If there’s no selling in a panicked way, then China willingly can continue to provide our financial support by continuing to hold U.S. assets.”

An agreement is needed so that no nation rushes to sell, “causing a collapse,” Yu said. Japan is the biggest owner of U.S. Treasury bills, holding $593 billion, and China is second with $519 billion. Asian countries together hold half of the $2.67 trillion total held by foreign nations.

How could such an agreement be enforced?

From US News and World Report….

With Congress preoccupied with the massive, $700 billion bailout plan for the financial industry, General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler have finally secured Part One of their own federal rescue plan. A bill set to be passed by Congress and signed by President Bush as early as this weekend—separate from the controversial Wall Street bailout plan—includes $25 billion in loans for the beleaguered Detroit automakers and several of their suppliers. “It seemed like a lot when we first started pushing this,” says Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, one of the bill’s sponsors. “Suddenly, it seems so small.”

From Megan McArdle…..

There is a new issue corporate bond today from Caterpillar (CAT) and the pricing of that issue is troublesome – quite troublesome, and reflective of the dire straits of the credit market and the dysfunction which has engulfed the corporate market.

Caterpillar announced a 5 year and a 10 year this morning. The size has yet to be determined, but it is likely to be around $500 million for each tranche

In early August Caterpillar brought a 5 year bond to market, the 4.90 of August 2013. That bond priced 175 basis points cheap to the benchmark 5 year Treasury note. With the turmoil in the credit markets the last several weeks, the issue has widened on spread and this morning it was quoted 225/ 210.

The talk on the new issue is T + 325 basis points. That is fully 100 basis points cheap to the outstanding issue and 150 basis points above where the same maturity was priced six weeks ago

This comment explains the lingo.

Also from Megan McArdle….

American Honda (the finance arm of the car company) just issued 5 and 10 year bonds similar to Catapiller. They are rated AA, and the offering went off at 400 over.

These are top notch industrial companies. I wonder what the less then top notch are being forced to pay right now?

From the Des Moines Register….

Assuming the government’s latest crop forecast is right and this fall’s corn and soybean harvests are sufficient to meet demand, stocks of corn and soybeans are still expected to fall to historically low levels. That’s even as biofuel production and global grain consumption are likely to keep growing.

Corn supplies are projected to fall by one-third to just more that 1 billion bushels, or about one month’s consumption, when harvest starts next fall. Supplies could be even tighter; many analysts think the latest production forecast is overly optimistic.

The scary thing is the first comment on the story. I hope there are not to many farmers who think like him.

To many people are worried about the health of the financial sector and not enough people are worried about the economic health of the nation of a whole.

Look at this chart. It is a graph of debt as a percentage of GDP. Now tell me; how is a 700 billion dollar bail out going to help America’s fundamental problem?

(h/t Rod Dreher)

From the Financial Times….

US regulators have underestimated potential bank losses on preferred stock issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the American Bankers Association said on Monday.

Nearly a third of US banks hold preferred stock issued by the two mortgage financiers that were taken into conservatorship this month, according to an industry survey conducted by the ABA. The average bank exposure to such securities relative to core equity capital was 11 per cent.

“The negative impact on banks – particularly Main Street community banks – is far greater than regulators first thought,” wrote Edward Yingling, chief executive of the ABA in a letter to the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and other banking regulators.

The government takeover of Fannie and Freddie all but wiped out the value of $36bn of their preferred shares. This would force exposed banks to take writedowns at the end of the third quarter that could impede future lending, the ABA warned.

“When the actions were contemplated to reduce dividends on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred stock, the bank regulators estimated that only a dozen banks would be affected by it,” Mr Yingling said.