The Unemployment rate is still low, but it is rising at a rapid clip. From the New York Times…

The unemployment rate jumped to 6.1 percent in August, its highest level in five years, pushing the troubles of American workers to the center of the political debate as the presidential campaign enters its final weeks.

For the eighth consecutive month, the nation’s employers shed jobs, 84,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. In all, 605,000 jobs have been lost since January. The steady rise in unemployment, from 5.7 percent in July and 5 percent in April, is one that many economists associate with recession.

Brad Delong has a chart of a broader measure of unemployment known as U6. It will give you an idea of how rapid the rise in unemployment has been in the first part of 08

From Demography Matters…..

There have been all kinds of reactions to this news in individual nations. Let’s start with the smaller member-states. Observers in the Czech Republic pointed out that the Eurostat data presuming a decline from 10 to 9 million underestimate immigration and births, with some arguing that the population could instead rise to 13 million by 2060. People in the Republic of Ireland are reacting to the news that, with an estimated 2060 population of 6.7 million, the island of Ireland would have regained its pre-Famine population of eight million. News that the population of Estonia might decline by one-sixth to 1.1 million have been greeted with concern, along with the news that Bulgaria’s population is projected to fall by 29%, as have news that Romania will certainly see rapid and perhaps economically unsustainable population aging as the population falls by 4.5 million.

The changes among the largest European Union states are perhaps especially noteworthy for their influence on the balances of economic and perhaps political power, Britain’s projected growth to 77 million people, giving it the largest national population in Europe, is fitting into national concern over “uncontrolled” immigration, while metropolitan France’s expected growth to nearly 72 million–not, it should be noted, out of line with 2005 projections charting a French population of 75 million by 2050–coexists with a Gemran population projected to fall to less than 71 million and a Spain projected to grow to just short of 52 million people. Italy’s population is projected to remain stable at 59 million, but quite frankly the numbers look cooked–is a natural decrease of 12.0 million really going to be almost entirely balanced out by an immigration of 11.8 million? Who knows, perhaps it is the recent rivalry with Spain at work. Poland, at present the sixth EU member-state by population at 38 million is projected to see a fall to 31 million. Barber is quite right to note that all these changes will of necessity influence the development of Europe.

I think that Randy’s point about Italy could be made for Europe as a whole. It is taken for granted that there will always be this endless supply of immigrants looking to get into Europe. But the nations that are currently supplying Europe with immigrants simply can not keep up the current pace with out destroying their own nations.

As Randy himself notes, Eastern Europe is already being destroyed by the huge amounts of people leaving their country. Since Britain has been a huge beneficiary of Eastern Europe’s loss, it is unlikely that Britain will continue to grow at the current rate. There is not many young people left in Poland as it is.

Moreover, North African and Turkey have sharply falling birth rates. That will cut down on the amount of young people willing to immigrate from those countries.

There will be large numbers of immigrants into Europe for the foreseeable future, but I do doubt it will happen at the rates the Eurostats predict.

From the New York Times….

China’s central bank is in a bind.

It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Those investments have been declining sharply in value when converted from dollars into the strong yuan, casting a spotlight on the central bank’s tiny capital base. The bank’s capital, just $3.2 billion, has not grown during the buying spree, despite private warnings from the International Monetary Fund

From Businesses Week (h/t Calculated Risk)….

A decision not to make the interest payment would place the county in default and put it one step closer to filing bankruptcy over a $3.2 billion bill linked to years of court-ordered sewer improvements and risky credit arrangements.

Such a move would nearly double the previous record for a municipal bankruptcy, set in 1994 when Orange County, Calif., sought protection over $1.64 billion in debts.

And why did Jefferson County take on such a large debt?

Jefferson County got into trouble after it was forced by the courts to undertake a huge upgrade of its sewage system to meet federal water standards and stop raw and partially treated waste from being dumped into streams.

Acting at the suggestion of outside advisers, the county borrowed money for the project on the bond market in a complex and risky series of transactions. When the mortgage crisis hit and banks began tightening up on their lending, the interest rates on the debt ballooned.

The nearly completed sewer project has been under construction since 1996.