When I was in my early 20s and bored out of my mind, I created an essay website. The first essay that I put up on the website was called “Pondering the Battle of Bicocca” in which I noted how success lead to overspecialization and speculated a little bit on how that might apply to the US Air Force. I thought it might be interesting to revisit that essay now in light of the Ukraine war.
1. I think it is safe to say that Ukraine’s offensive has failed politically. Every victory that Ukraine achieved resulted in a boast of support as people on the western street thought that if their country just threw more money at Ukraine they could feel like they were part of the winning sports team (speaking cynically). The lack of news worthy progress has led to a falling off of the desire to give more money to Ukraine all around the world on the part of the everyday Joe.
2. In one sense, Ukraine’s failed offensive is a victory for Russia. Russia seemed determined to make sure that Ukraine had no territorial gains to boast about like they had in the past and they succeeded in that goal. But this goal was archived by experiencing more losses then Ukrainians even though the Russians were on the defensive. As best I can tell, this is because Russia would frantically counterattack anytime they lost ground or even looked like they were losing ground. Moreover, it seems that Russia forced people to stand and die long past the point of their being any military benefit as conventionally understood.
3. In spite of Russia’s bloody minded determination, Ukraine did succeed in creating a small bridgehead into Russia’s defensive lines. Looking at that bridge head on a map, and it looks like the perfect place for Russia to do a pincer attack and put the Ukrainian forces into a pocket or force them to withdraw. But Russia seems to be making no attempt to do this. I am guessing that this is because local Ukrainian artillery superiority prevents them from maneuvering the types of forces needed to do this.
4. Instead, Russia seems to have decided to try to make a surprise attack to take Avdiivka. In once sense this is understandable. If the first surprise attack had worked, it might have been worth it and certainly Ukraine has made similar attempts/errors. But the doubling down and continuing to send columns after columns of armored fighting vehicles to their deaths is truly mind blowing. The conventional wisdom at the moment seems to be that there is no way the Russians can take Avdiivka. I am not sure about that. Russian’s proved at Bakhmut that they can outlast losses that western analysts think should stop them. But by the same token, the price of Bakhmut was the destruction of Wagner as an effective fighting force and the first armed munity of the war. On top of that, Russia gained no discernible strategic advantage from taking Bakhmut. If Russia truly commits to taking Avdiivka at “any cost” it seems likely that the price they will pay will be even greater then what they paid for Bakhmut and it is not clear what advantage they would get from it in a strategic sense.
5. Overall, it seems that Russia failed to use this year to rebuild their combat power. Whatever they managed to accumulate seems to have gotten thrown into one front or another. New equipment has been showing up at the front so we know they are still making stuff. But the overall quality of the equipment in the Russia army seems to be going down. This seems to indicate that they can’t keep up with the losses they are suffering.
6. Russian fiscal situation is deteriorating. It is hard to tell how badly because they have stopped the release of a lot of information. But they are doing a lot of bizarre things like jacking up interest rates and imposing currency controls even though in theory they don’t have inflation. It is obvious that they are struggling to control the value of the ruble (down in value by about 25% since the start of the war) but this does not explain why they felt compelled to restrict the exports of diesel (which depressed the value of the ruble). It seems by their own figures that revenue is down this year by about 70% compared to pre war figures and they are likely to be close to two trillion dollars in the hole by the end of the year when extra war expenses are taken into account. In spite of all this, Russia does not seem to be depleting it foreign exchange reserves to any great extent even if you only count those that are not frozen. So I remain confused as to just how bad it is for them at the moment beyond the obvious fact that is worse than it was before the war started.
7. A lot of the success of Russian strategy this year will come down to if Biden can get his large aid package for Ukraine through congress. In the end, it does not matter if the average Joe on the street is losing interest if Ukraine keeps getting weapons and ammo. Biden’s package is geared to fund Ukraine through the next election. If Biden gets his package through, then the Russians excessive losses to prevent Ukraine from gaining ground will have all been a waste. It is unlikely that if Ukraine had gained a few hundred extra square miles it would have resulted in a bigger aid package then Biden is trying to give them. But by not being so frantic in the counter attacks and allowing Ukraine to gain more ground, Russia would have allowed Ukraine to spread its own troops out more and preserved more of its own forces to be rebuilt into something effective.
8. Russian military history is full of examples defeats and long defensive campaigns leading to victory. Russian military history is also full of disasters caused by Russian corruption and refusal to adapt to changing circumstances. This current war looks a lot more like the latter.
9. Ukraine is done demographically as nation no matter how long this war takes. And it can’t sustain this war on its own. But as long as the west is willing to fund it, it looks able to keep fighting effectively for another year yet at least. It is true that it is increasingly having to force people to join the army but that has been true of Russia for awhile and not a sign that Ukraine is about to collapse manpower wise. That said, it is a reminder that Ukraine is going down the drain manpower wise but there is a long way to go down that road before Ukraine stops fielding effective military forces.
10. Russian had hoped that the fighting in Israel would pull support away from Ukraine. But Biden (or his handlers) are shrewdly tying aid for Ukraine to aid for Israel and Taiwan and he is trying for a one and done approach so he does not have to come back asking all the time. Since Biden only needs some Republican support to make this work, it is likely to be successful although Republican hardliners are likely to try all kinds of parliamentary style delaying tactics using the rules that are available. And for the most part, the types of military aid that the two nations need will not overlap. Israel does not need tanks or long range strike missiles and Ukraine does not really need the bombs and air to ground missiles because it lacks an air force that can get close to the Russians. The main pinch point will be ballistic missile interceptors (assuming Hezbollah gets involved) as the US also has to worry about China in that regard as well as everything else. Artillery shells will also be an issue as although Israel is unlikely to use much (historically they have relied on their Air Force), anything they do use will really hurt Ukraine as they already have a shortfall in shells. One unknown is how much Iran help to Russia would be impacted by the needs of their proxy forces for things like drones….
The Bottom Line:
I expect that Ukraine will get what they need to fight for another year and I expect they will continue to fight effectively (i.e. in way that is very painful for the Russians). What I don’t have a good understanding of is how well Russia will endure another year of such fighting. It seems that they are starting to feel the fiscal effects and are struggling to maintain an effective military but Russian history has proved they can keep going for a long time in situations where other nations would become demoralized. On the other hand, where other nations tend to pull back before they collapse, Russia has many times pushed past that point……
I stop watching for a little bit and it all ends….
I don’t have a clear idea of what he got out of this. Some say that he was just allowed to leave with his skin in tact while others say he was promised leadership changes in the Russian MOD. Regardless, I don’t think he is gong to live long although I do expect that they will let him go into exile since they have announced that as solution. However, he will still need to be very careful to stay away from windows and make all his own tea. On the other hand, a long life was not in his plan from the day he started to run his mouth so as soon as it became clear that nobody was coming over to join him all he could do is negotiate for the best terms possible.
Even 25 thousand men that have nobody fighting them can only take a small part of Moscow just because of it shear size. The city proper has 970 square miles and the actual metropolitan area has 10,000 square miles. If Wagner had got into Moscow they would have barely have enough men to secure the city center. That is why I said earlier that there plans were tactically sound but strategically dubious. They did get all the way to outskirts of Moscow and I am not sure anyone could have stopped them from entering so in that respect they planned it well. But once in the city that big all they would have been was a traveling traffic jam even with hundreds of armored vehicles.
As it stands right now, I am not sure how well he played his hand because I don’t know what he got. I know some pro-Wagner accounts are very un-happy and I know some anti-Wagner Russian accounts are unhappy. I guess it fits those whose idea of a good compromise as one that leaves everyone unhappy but we will have a better idea in the next 24 hours of how well Wagner played its hand.
Last night I was wondering what Putin was up to. He finally gave a speech after delaying it repeatedly and making Russian television presenters look like fools (or at least appear to be very awkward). You can read about the speech here.
Now I am wondering what Ukraine is up to. Contrary to my expectations they seem to have put their offensive on a lull. You would think now would be the time to increase the pressure. I can think of a couple of possible explanations….
1. Maybe the Slavic tendency to extreme paranoia is stopping them from acting. If you recall, Ukraine missed a huge opportunity to take advantage of the Russia withdrawal from Kerson because they thought it was some kind of trap. Some pro-Ukrainian sources still have that fear about current events as can be seen by this link.
2. The Ukrainians are trying to keep the pressure off so units feel free to leave the defense line to support one side or the other. If this is there plan, it don’t seem to be working yet.
3. The Ukrainians were bloodied worse the pro-Ukrainian sources would have you believe and they are using this time to recover.
4. They are working on something big and it takes time to get everything in place. I am recently hearing rumors that Ukraine is on the move again but nothing substantial.
This is page from the Drive is being update throughout the day for those that don’t want to deal with Twitter and Telegram (and I never thought I would be one to do that but I can’t help myself and it is the only way to stay current as nothing else is keeping up).
Short Version: Wagner has a tactically sound but strategically dubious plan. They have placed most Russia forces in a dilemma as Wagener now controls their supply lines and Ukraine troops are in front of them. The most elite Wagner forces appear to be racing to Moscow with nothing to stop them. Tactically, this is a very risky, but very sound strategy if your goal is take Moscow with the small force that Wagner has available. But even assuming this all work out tactically, for it to work the way Wagner wants it to requires that a few thousands troops in Moscow brings the Russian government down. This was the same bet that Napoleon made and it did not work out. If Wagner takes Moscow but most people remain on the sidelines or loyal to Putin, they are then very spread out geographically with no obvious next move.
To add to below video, recent reports are indicating that Wagner troops are in the greater Moscow region.
The real interesting thing is going to be how well the Chechens do against Wagner. They seem to be Putin’s only real option at the moment.
Late night talk is that Wagner has taken Rostov which is the headquarters of the Russian Army in Southern Ukraine (i.e. supposedly the place where all the supplies come from). It also supposedly controls some tactical nukes.
There is enough video evidence that Wagner has taken Rostov that I am fairly confident that has occurred but I don’t know what that means in terms of Wagner now having enough supplies or having the nukes. Just taking the nukes don’t mean that you can use them and usually they are locked with codes and what not. But then, if you are type of group that post videos of people getting their heads smashed with sledge hammers, what are the chances you can convince some people to help you around the codes?
I think it is kind of of crazy to try to take over Russia with 25,000 men (if you believe Wagner), but if you are that type of crazy going for some nukes would make a lot of sense. It is not like you are going to live if you fail…..
This video production quality is not high but it shows why Rostov matters….
I don’t understand why Putin is not making public broadcasts and is relying on Generals to issue pleas to Wagner. Is he not confident in his own popularity or is he just too busy?
Also….
Me: You can’t launch a deep armored strike without control of the air in modern war.
Wagner: Watch this.
It remains to be seen if I am right. But I am surprised by all the videos I am seeing of long columns of Wagner moving on highways and nobody attacking them. Does he have a lot of internal support? Really good anti-air? Or is the Russian air force still in the figuring things out stage even after almost a full day. You would think they would want to squash this early and brutally.
The below video talks about some gossip to explain the lack of air power.
Wagner Commander’s Message To all oF Russia.
Hacked Russian Television Channels Playing Prigozhin Call To Coup
Translation is below the video. Note he has gun in his lap, I think that is to show he is serious because a man of his rank would not normally have that kind of gun on him Russian General’s Desperate Plea To Wagner Group
Military Vehicles Seen Moving To Establish Checkpoints In Moscow
Russian Armor Rolled Into The Streets Of Rostov
This is the video that Wagner released that kicked all of this off. It supposedly shows the aftermath of the Russia strike on their position.