Short Version: Wagner has a tactically sound but strategically dubious plan. They have placed most Russia forces in a dilemma as Wagener now controls their supply lines and Ukraine troops are in front of them. The most elite Wagner forces appear to be racing to Moscow with nothing to stop them. Tactically, this is a very risky, but very sound strategy if your goal is take Moscow with the small force that Wagner has available. But even assuming this all work out tactically, for it to work the way Wagner wants it to requires that a few thousands troops in Moscow brings the Russian government down. This was the same bet that Napoleon made and it did not work out. If Wagner takes Moscow but most people remain on the sidelines or loyal to Putin, they are then very spread out geographically with no obvious next move.

To add to below video, recent reports are indicating that Wagner troops are in the greater Moscow region.

The real interesting thing is going to be how well the Chechens do against Wagner. They seem to be Putin’s only real option at the moment.

Late night talk is that Wagner has taken Rostov which is the headquarters of the Russian Army in Southern Ukraine (i.e. supposedly the place where all the supplies come from). It also supposedly controls some tactical nukes.

There is enough video evidence that Wagner has taken Rostov that I am fairly confident that has occurred but I don’t know what that means in terms of Wagner now having enough supplies or having the nukes. Just taking the nukes don’t mean that you can use them and usually they are locked with codes and what not. But then, if you are type of group that post videos of people getting their heads smashed with sledge hammers, what are the chances you can convince some people to help you around the codes?

I think it is kind of of crazy to try to take over Russia with 25,000 men (if you believe Wagner), but if you are that type of crazy going for some nukes would make a lot of sense. It is not like you are going to live if you fail…..

This video production quality is not high but it shows why Rostov matters….

I don’t understand why Putin is not making public broadcasts and is relying on Generals to issue pleas to Wagner. Is he not confident in his own popularity or is he just too busy?

Also….

Me: You can’t launch a deep armored strike without control of the air in modern war.

Wagner: Watch this.

It remains to be seen if I am right. But I am surprised by all the videos I am seeing of long columns of Wagner moving on highways and nobody attacking them. Does he have a lot of internal support? Really good anti-air? Or is the Russian air force still in the figuring things out stage even after almost a full day. You would think they would want to squash this early and brutally.

The below video talks about some gossip to explain the lack of air power.

Wagner Commander’s Message To all oF Russia.

Hacked Russian Television Channels Playing Prigozhin Call To Coup

Translation is below the video. Note he has gun in his lap, I think that is to show he is serious because a man of his rank would not normally have that kind of gun on him Russian General’s Desperate Plea To Wagner Group

Military Vehicles Seen Moving To Establish Checkpoints In Moscow

Russian Armor Rolled Into The Streets Of Rostov

This is the video that Wagner released that kicked all of this off. It supposedly shows the aftermath of the Russia strike on their position.

Lots of clips at this link. Wagner Boss Declares War On Russian Defense Ministry

More up to date information can be found here but it is kind of chaotic.

You don’t make a professional army in one year or two. The poor fellows in the below video had to prove that it is not only the Russians that can be stupid.

A less emotional but more narrow look at the same attack.

Here is the Russian drone footage in question.

I still find it hard to believe that the Russians were as dumb as this explanation makes out but this is the only theory that explains why both the Russians and the Ukrainians were not ready for this flood.

Here is a more detailed look at the damage to dam.

I don’t understand this at all. Who really benefits from this? The only thing I am pretty sure of is that it was not done by “shelling” as Russia is accusing Ukraine of doing.

Edit: They took down the video I posted this morning. Here is a new one.

The example of underwater gas lines in the above video is unfortunate because there is a good chance that Ukraine did that but there is very little chance that Ukraine blew this up.