As Keynes observed, in the long run, we are all dead. This uniformity in long term results tends to focus our minds on the short term. But that does not change the fact that most of the news stories that we pay attention to will be hardly matter in 10 years. Meanwhile, things that we ignore will have profound impact on the world for a long time to come. What follows is a few things that caught my attention over the last week that did not make the headlines but that I think will matter for a long time to come.
1. Roughly 2.7 million children were born in the US in 2023 compared to roughly 1.7 million children being born in Egypt. Population of the US in 20230 was 339,996,563. Population of Egypt in 2023 is 112,716, 598. With about a third the population of the US, Egypt is producing almost two thirds the amount of babies. This is to a certain extent offset higher child mortally in Egypt but not enough to make a significant difference in the long term outcomes.
2. In Latin America, for instance, fertility rates are coming in much lower than had been expected. Uruguay, Costa Rica, Chile, Jamaica and Cuba all have fertility rates of about 1.3. In one decade, Mexico had a 24% drop in births. Brazil, by far the region’s most populous nation, has a fertility rate of about 1.65, and those are likely to fall further. The UN had predicted Brazil’s population to be 216 million this year, but it turns out to be only 203 million. Over time, most Latin American countries can expect shrinking populations.
3. Official figures released Wednesday showed that China had fewer than half the number of births in 2023 than the country did in 2016. The latest number points to a fertility rate that is close to 1.0.
In the short run these things mean nothing. In the long run though, these figures will change the world.
Egypt is continuing its trend of being one of the world’s biggest time bombs. The idea that Latin America will continue to supply an endless supply of young people to America is one of the biggest fears of American nationalist and the biggest comfort for those who see a bright future for American demographically. Yet the data from the sending countries does not support the idea that this tread will last for very much longer. And China is continuing to track the worst case scenarios of its demographic decline. If this continues much longer, the formally pessimistic forecasts of China’s demographic future will turn into an optimistic pipe dream. A fertility rate of 1 becomes devastating very quickly.
