(Warning: This is entirely too long for the level of insight provided. The only real value in reading this is if you are curious as how the brain of the Ape Man works when confronted by a mystery).

I have proven that I have no understanding of the human element behind the Ukraine war. In fact, my understanding is so poor it has been almost a good guide in reverse as to what was going to happen. In other words, based on my past performance you would do well to think that the people involved will act in a way that is the exact opposite of what I think they will do. So why have I been so wrong?

It is tempting to throw up my hands and say that the Russians (or at least Putin) are irrational and that is why their behavior does not conform to my expectations. But even irrational people are predictable once you get to know them. Putin has been around long enough and lead Russia in enough conflicts that I thought I knew what the pattern of his behavior looked like. If you look at the conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and the earlier Ukraine conflicts it seems like a clear pattern becomes apparent.

The pattern seems pretty simple. First you prepare the justification for what you are going to do all the while denying that you are going to do it. Then you use overwhelming force carefully calibrated to be as risk free as possible to accomplish limited objectives. Last, you seek to reach some kind of accommodation that will end the conflict on sustainable terms. Russianphiles would probably argue with first part of this pattern and Russianphobes would object to the last part of this pattern, but to my eyes it still does a pretty good job of describing all of the recent conflicts that Russia has had save the most recent one.

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From the source I have come to trust the most….

From a pro-Russian source…..

It is too early tell what the results of this are. The power went out over large swaths of Ukraine but the real testament to how bad the damage is will come from how long the power stays out. Some bloggers are reporting that the power came back on as they were in the process of making their video.

But the biggest problem the Russians have is that they just don’t have the capacity to do this right. When NATO wanted to force Serbia to bend the knee, they spent 78 days and launched 10,484 strike sorties. And this was on a much smaller country then Ukraine. By comparison, 130+ some missiles and drones (accounts vary) is weak sauce.

While on the subject of NATO, I should note that while Russia is a hypocrite for calling the attacks on the bridge a terrorist attack when it would fit most nations (including their own) definition of a valid military target, NATO did strike power plants in Serbia when they were trying to force them to withdraw from Kosovo. So keep that in mind when you hear people talking about how terrible Russia is for attacking civilian power plants (NATO called them dual use targets). That said, Russians thought that the attacks on Serbia’s power plants was horrible crime….

I was the 9 years old when the Berlin wall fell. I was 11 when the Soviet Union ceased to exist. My generation never knew the draft and never really knew a world in which the US was at risk. The fall of the Twin Towers was traumatic for my generation because it revealed that there were people in the world who wanted to kill Americans. But except for a few brief days when nobody knew the full extent of what had happened, no one thought America as whole was in danger. On the scale of a brief national history that includes the Civil War and World War II, the Twin Towers do not even register.

Confident in our power, we destroyed nations to make sure no one would even think of attacking us again. Never in this entire process was the thought that America itself was in the balance. Instead, the debates were about dollars and cents. They were about whether the gains were worth the cost. Whether we were killing bad guys faster than were making more enemies for ourselves. It was a consumer nation at war and we made war as if it was just another product to be consumed or not as we saw fit.

That world is dying and may already be dead. Now war carries with it the devil’s choice of slavery or death. America is not longer a consumer. Now America is just a gambler trying to figure which door has the least bad surprise while trying to pretend it can reason its way to the right answer.

Not everyone has figured that out yet. But the educated fools are getting increasingly panic stricken. Now some people in the Pro-Ukraine camp are starting to openly talk about the need to make sure Ukraine gives in before Russia uses nukes. They are not in the majority for sure. But it is becoming more and more real for people the weaker and weaker that Russia appears on the battle field.

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I am completely at a loss as to who would blow up the Nordstream pipelines. I guess if I was forced to make a choice, I would pick Russia just because they seem the most insane at the moment, but I certainly don’t blame anyone who does not find the Russia theory plausible either. The basic list of possible and farfetched culprits is well covered by this video….

The one thing not covered in video above is the idea that it was just an accident caused by bad Russian maintenance. Most people seemed to have ruled out that out but Lawdog lays out an argument for the incompetent Russian theory. I don’t buy that argument (one or two explosions maybe but four?) but you should read it because Lawdog makes a more compelling then you likely think is possible.

If (like me) you don’t buy the accident theory you are pretty much left with a NATO country or Russia as the culprit just on grounds of means. Both nether camp seems to have very good motives to me. Russia has already shut down the pipelines so why do they need to blow them? And what does the US gain by blowing the pipes when Russia is already taking the heat for refusing to sell gas? If there was some sign that Germany was going to cave in the near future I might buy it, but otherwise what is the rush? Also, I may be wrong, but it just don’t seem like the US has the balls for something like this at the moment. You run the risk of angering the EU big time and the damage is done in an area that the EU can watch pretty closely.

Speaking of watching, both Russians and Western sources are pointing to the other side’s ships having been seen in the area. A lot of pro-Russian sources are using the fact that the U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge was in the area as “100” proof that US did it. But if the US was going to do this, and amphibious assault ship would not be the ship that got used. Those ships are way too big with way to many people on them who might talk for it to be a good place to launch something covert from. In the past when the US has done sneaking things they have used subs which have smaller crews of people who are carefully screened to be able to keep their mouths shut but the water is kind of shallow for subs to be sneaking in the area where this happened. So the question of how you would do this without people knowing is something of mystery.

I think the same thing about claims that Russian ships were seen in the area. I have not heard what type of ships they are, but it seems too obvious of a way of going about it. Plus, it is the Baltic. There is always going to be Russian ships and NATO ships in the area. And unless somebody is not doing their job, these ships should always be closely watched by everyone on every side so how they would pull off a surprise like this is beyond me.

One very plausible way of damaging the pipelines without people noticing is via Pipeline Pigs with explosives attached. I have not heard many people talking about it but one person who claimed to have claimed to be an oil and gas guy said that his how he thought it was done. It seems like if you got something down there to take pictures it should be easy for experts to tell if the explosion came from inside the pipes or outside the pipes. If the explosion came from inside the pipes, it would pretty much rule out anyone but the Russians as it is my understanding is that the Pigs would have to come from upstream of where the explosions happened.

If it was not done by a Pipeline Pig, then I suppose it could have been done by an underwater drone. That is certainly the leading argument from the “NATO did it” camp. The only problem is that nobody has explained what kind of drone could have done it. It would have been big enough to be effective, small enough not be seen in the relatively shallow water, and most importantly, be able to operate independently or in some way communicate to its controllers in way that as not detectible to all the nations watching the Baltic.

What I am getting at is that drones are not magic. Sure they don’t need people in them but that only reduces the size so much and what they make up in smaller size they usually have to pay for in terms of needing to phone home to a controller. I would think that would be particularly true for a task like this. So I don’t see how invoking an unknown drone really explains how this was done without anyone knowing.

One last idea I should throw out there just for the sake of completeness is the idea that Poland is the one that made it happen. They just completed a pipe line from Norway (but it will only replace 60% of the gas they got from Russia) and they obviously feel very strongly about supporting Ukraine. So there is this assumption by some people that are feeling more energy secure because of their new pipeline and so they have taken this opportunity to hit Russia and Germany in one shot. But while that might offer up a motive, I don’t think that explains how they would do it without being noticed by other EU countries or by Russia.

I honestly thought that after a few days had passed a semi plausible theory would have emerged but I don’t feel like that is the case. So I am throwing this out there mostly because I know people will ask me about it and I have no real good idea. But at least this way I have something to point to that has links to all I have been able to find out even if that is not much.