It is make or break time for Ukraine. Peter Zeihan has a good overview of what the stakes are.
The one thing that Peter does not go into is the consequences of failure for Ukraine. They really don’t have time on their hands. Western populations forced their leaders to adopt harder line on Russia then they really intended to (so much so that US treasury had to ask companies to not “over enforce” sanction regulations and EU ports were turning away legal Russian cargos because the longshore unions were refusing to unload). But the EU populations are starting to learn what the consequences are for their actions and Ukraine is going to start facing a falling off of support if for no other reason that all easy gifts (small arms, old stocks of soviet weapons in eastern European weapon stocks) have all been given. So the question of the hour is does Ukraine have a chance of achieving its goals in southern Ukraine?